EFL League OneMeadow Lane, Nottingham17°14,5 mm12 km/h

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    Notts CountyNotts CountyLow block & direct
    2–1
    Burton AlbionBurton AlbionPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Notts County (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.86 (+12 %)

    Notts County – Burton Albion · EFL League One

    1 · Notts County 45%X 29%26% Burton Albion · 2

    Analysis: Notts County – Burton Albion

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A significant stat looms over this fixture: Burton Albion's eight-match unbeaten streak in the league. Notts County, on the other hand, leans on a direct style but struggles defensively, conceding 1.5 xGA per match. Despite the visitors' recent form advantage, the model gives the hosts a 45% chance of victory, highlighting the unpredictable nature of this matchup.

    The expected goals lean toward a low-scoring game, with Notts County projected at 1.38 against Burton's 0.91. Likely outcomes such as 1-0 (14%) and 1-1 (13%) suggest a tight contest, with the probability of under 2.5 goals standing at 60%. Rain and low temperatures might further suppress scoring opportunities, aligning with the cautious approach of both teams.

    For those keen on value, the under 2.5 goals market presents a compelling proposition at 1.82 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given a model-rated probability of 60%, this bet carries a significant edge of 9%. While the hosts are favored, the numbers indicate a cautious affair with the visitors' defensive solidity potentially proving pivotal. Expect a narrow result, most likely a 1-0 victory for the home side.

    Notts CountyNotts County
    Form DD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #18xP/match #12Points #15
    Key players
    • Callum RobertsFxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
    • Oliver Joseph CooperFxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
    • Luka Benjamin SmythFxG 0.10 · xT -0.01
    Burton AlbionBurton Albion
    Form DDDDW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #1xT #22xP/match #2Points #5
    Key players
    • Jake BeesleyFxG 0.39 · xT 0.02
    • Tyrese ShadeFxG 0.24 · xT 0.09
    • Charlie WebsterCAMxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Notts County 45% · Draw 29% · Burton Albion 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Notts CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,70fair 11,32-41 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Burton AlbionBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 14,16fair 25,43-44 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Notts County – Burton Albion

    Predicted score matrix

    Burton Albion →
    Notts County →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.5%
    0–18.9%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–013.6%
    1–113.1%
    1–25.8%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–18.8%
    2–24.0%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–04.4%
    3–14.0%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.0-19%
    Expected goals
    1,38–0,91
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.86EV+7%
    Over 2,540%
    @2.00

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Notts County to win45%
    • Under 3.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.74

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Notts County to win45%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • Tyrese Hall to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Tyrese Hall to score24%
    • Ciaran Patrick Gilligan to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.560% probability@1.86PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • Under 1.533% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • Under 1.533% probability@3.25BetssonEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Notts CountyX2 · Burton Albion
    Betsafe1.923.303.55
    Betsson1.923.303.55
    Nordicbet1.923.303.55
    Pinnacle1.98
    EV+ 2%
    3.58
    EV+ 0%
    3.82

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Notts County win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.29 to 1.98 (−14%).

    1-14 %
    50 %40 %

    2.29 → 1.98

    X+7 %
    32 %22 %

    3.34 → 3.58

    2+24 %
    33 %23 %

    3.09 → 3.82

    Over 2,5-1 %
    52 %42 %

    2.03 → 2.00

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Burton Albion are unbeaten in their last 8 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Notts County
    Burton Albion
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Notts County (3–3)
    Burton Albion (3–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Notts County
    Jacob Bedeau: 66 passningar, xT 0.29BedeauJames Andrew Gibbons: 55 passningar, xT 0.12GibbonsLucas Ness: 52 passningar, xT 0.03NessJames Belshaw: 41 passningar, xT 0.12BelshawDean Graeme Campbell: 32 passningar, xT 0.15CampbellNick Tsaroulla: 30 passningar, xT 0.16TsaroullaScott Robertson: 27 passningar, xT 0.13RobertsonDarius Lipsiuc: 25 passningar, xT 0.07LipsiucOliver Joseph Cooper: 24 passningar, xT 0.37CooperJack Lucas James Evans: 22 passningar, xT -0.03EvansCallum Roberts: 21 passningar, xT -0.05Roberts
    Burton Albion
    Toby Sibbick: 61 passningar, xT 0.23SibbickGeorge Evans: 56 passningar, xT 0.04EvansFinn Delap: 53 passningar, xT 0.1DelapCurtis Anthony Tilt: 51 passningar, xT 0.07TiltCorey Kofi Cheremeh Addai: 40 passningar, xT 0.11AddaiKgaogelo Chauke: 40 passningar, xT 0.04ChaukeSulyman Krubally: 37 passningar, xT 0.01KruballyJack Armer: 33 passningar, xT 0.08ArmerCharlie Webster: 33 passningar, xT 0.03WebsterKyran Lofthouse: 30 passningar, xT 0.17LofthouseMatthew Timothy Dennis: 14 passningar, xT 0Dennis
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Notts County
    Jacob Bedeau: 66 passningar, xT 0.29BedeauJames Andrew Gibbons: 55 passningar, xT 0.12GibbonsLucas Ness: 52 passningar, xT 0.03NessJames Belshaw: 41 passningar, xT 0.12BelshawDean Graeme Campbell: 32 passningar, xT 0.15CampbellNick Tsaroulla: 30 passningar, xT 0.16TsaroullaScott Robertson: 27 passningar, xT 0.13RobertsonDarius Lipsiuc: 25 passningar, xT 0.07LipsiucOliver Joseph Cooper: 24 passningar, xT 0.37CooperJack Lucas James Evans: 22 passningar, xT -0.03EvansCallum Roberts: 21 passningar, xT -0.05Roberts
    Burton Albion
    Toby Sibbick: 61 passningar, xT 0.23SibbickGeorge Evans: 56 passningar, xT 0.04EvansFinn Delap: 53 passningar, xT 0.1DelapCurtis Anthony Tilt: 51 passningar, xT 0.07TiltCorey Kofi Cheremeh Addai: 40 passningar, xT 0.11AddaiKgaogelo Chauke: 40 passningar, xT 0.04ChaukeSulyman Krubally: 37 passningar, xT 0.01KruballyJack Armer: 33 passningar, xT 0.08ArmerCharlie Webster: 33 passningar, xT 0.03WebsterKyran Lofthouse: 30 passningar, xT 0.17LofthouseMatthew Timothy Dennis: 14 passningar, xT 0Dennis

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceNotts CountyBurton Albion
    Points24
    xPoints2.74
    xG per match0.911
    xGA per match1.50.67
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.110.37
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.320.09
    Playing styleNotts CountyBurton Albion
    Build-up efficiency0.310.36
    Field tilt0.370.39
    xT per match0.760.63
    xTA per match1.10.76
    Won balls, offensive half2732
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.26
    Entries into the box per match116
    Entries into the box against138
    Pass completion %0.670.65
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.61
    Passes per match208233
    Passes against per match431407
    Switches of play per match10.116.8
    Long balls per match2329
    Set piecesNotts CountyBurton Albion
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match2.92.5
    Corners against per match6.22.5
    xG per corner0.040
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.6
    First touch, defensive corners %0.770.8
    OtherNotts CountyBurton Albion
    Throw-in control0.660.67
    The goalkeepersJames Belshaw (Notts County)Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion)
    Saves34
    Save %60%67%
    xG prevented38%28%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Notts County
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Burton Albion
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Notts County vs Burton Albion according to our model?

    The model gives Notts County a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Notts County 45%, draw 29%, Burton Albion 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.