EFL League OneKassam Stadium, Oxford18°23 km/h

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    Oxford UnitedOxford UnitedPossession control
    vs
    Burton AlbionBurton AlbionLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Oxford United (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Burton Albion @ 4.20 (+46 %)

    Oxford United – Burton Albion · EFL League One

    1 · Oxford United 35%X 30%35% Burton Albion · 2

    Analysis: Oxford United – Burton Albion

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: In this tight contest between Oxford United and Burton Albion, the spotlight falls on a razor-thin balance of probabilities, with both sides sharing a 35% chance of victory. The model leans slightly towards Oxford, perhaps accounting for their possession-based approach, which contrasts with Burton's preference for a compact defensive setup and direct play. Yet, despite this tactical clash, both teams have struggled to assert clear dominance, reflected in their identical win probabilities.

    A key tension lies in Burton's ability to find the net, having scored in nine consecutive league outings. This offensive consistency adds an intriguing layer to the matchup, particularly against an Oxford side that concedes a concerning average of 2.1 expected goals per match. Despite this, the model anticipates a low-scoring affair, with the most likely scorelines including 1-1 (14%) and 1-0 (13%), underpinned by a mere 36% probability for over 2.5 goals.

    The points table suggests a marginal edge for Burton, sitting on 8 points compared to Oxford's 7. However, when delving into expected points, the gap widens: Burton leads significantly with 7.4 xPoints over Oxford's 4.4. This discrepancy suggests that Burton may have been more efficient in maximizing their opportunities, even if Oxford's average xG per match edges out Burton's (1.2 vs 0.91).

    Ultimately, while Oxford's control and potential possession dominance might suggest they are slightly favored, the numbers paint a picture of parity. Given the low scoring projections and Burton's scoring streak, the 1-1 draw emerges as the most plausible result.

    Oxford UnitedOxford United
    Form DWLW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #22xT #17xP/match #20Points #14
    Key players
    • Tyler GoodrhamLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
    • Cameron BrannaganCMxG 0.27 · xT 0.02
    • Jack Alexander CurrieLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
    Burton AlbionBurton Albion
    Form DWLWD
    League ranking xG #22xGA #13xT #23xP/match #9Points #6
    Key players
    • Caylan VickersFxG 0.35 · xT 0.14
    • Charlie WebsterLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
    • Matthew Timothy DennisFxG 0.37 · xT 0.08

    Match prediction: Oxford United – Burton Albion

    Predicted score matrix

    Burton Albion →
    Oxford United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.3%
    0–111.8%
    0–26.2%
    0–32.1%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–012.8%
    1–113.9%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–17.4%
    2–23.8%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–12.7%
    3–21.4%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.0-112%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,11–1,02
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,1
    Under 2,564%
    @1.99EV+28%
    Over 2,536%
    @1.85

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Oxford United or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.77

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Oxford United or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals64%
    • Jamie Donley to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals36%
    • Jamie Donley to score21%
    • Sulyman Krubally to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Burton Albion35% probability@4.20Bet365EV+46%reference odds
    • 2 · Burton Albion35% probability@3.94PinnacleEV+37%reference odds
    • Under 2.564% probability@1.99PinnacleEV+28%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Oxford UnitedX2 · Burton Albion
    Bet3651.73
    EV+ 9%
    3.60
    EV+ 46%
    4.20
    Pinnacle1.87
    EV+ 15%
    3.80
    EV+ 37%
    3.94

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 14:30

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 7 September — the odds have shortened from 1.97 to 1.85 (−6%).

    1-2 %
    52 %47 %

    1.92 → 1.87

    X+6 %
    28 %23 %

    3.60 → 3.80

    2+3 %
    27 %22 %

    3.81 → 3.94

    Over 2,5-6 %
    53 %48 %

    1.97 → 1.85

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Burton Albion have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Oxford United
    Burton Albion
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Oxford United (9–6)
    Burton Albion (10–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Oxford United
    Cameron Brannagan: 178 passningar, xT 0.07BrannaganCiaron Brown: 158 passningar, xT 0.17BrownJack Alexander Currie: 121 passningar, xT 0.22CurrieSam Long: 116 passningar, xT 0.11LongBrodie Gilmore Spencer: 92 passningar, xT 0.06SpencerJamie Carson McDonnell: 91 passningar, xT -0.08McDonnellSimon Christopher Eastwood: 73 passningar, xT 0.04EastwoodPeter Kioso: 65 passningar, xT 0.08KiosoMichal Helik: 54 passningar, xT 0.04HelikSiriki Dembele: 53 passningar, xT 0.25DembeleKai Andrews: 51 passningar, xT 0.11Andrews
    Burton Albion
    Finn Delap: 167 passningar, xT 0.25DelapCorey Kofi Cheremeh Addai: 160 passningar, xT 0.15AddaiToby Sibbick: 146 passningar, xT 0.27SibbickCurtis Anthony Tilt: 125 passningar, xT 0.18TiltGeorge Evans: 123 passningar, xT 0.12EvansCharlie Webster: 119 passningar, xT 0.17WebsterKgaogelo Chauke: 116 passningar, xT 0.03ChaukeSulyman Krubally: 97 passningar, xT 0.35KruballyJack Armer: 94 passningar, xT 0.4ArmerKyran Lofthouse: 60 passningar, xT 0.17LofthouseCaylan Vickers: 38 passningar, xT 0.19Vickers
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Oxford United
    Cameron Brannagan: 178 passningar, xT 0.07BrannaganCiaron Brown: 158 passningar, xT 0.17BrownJack Alexander Currie: 121 passningar, xT 0.22CurrieSam Long: 116 passningar, xT 0.11LongBrodie Gilmore Spencer: 92 passningar, xT 0.06SpencerJamie Carson McDonnell: 91 passningar, xT -0.08McDonnellSimon Christopher Eastwood: 73 passningar, xT 0.04EastwoodPeter Kioso: 65 passningar, xT 0.08KiosoMichal Helik: 54 passningar, xT 0.04HelikSiriki Dembele: 53 passningar, xT 0.25DembeleKai Andrews: 51 passningar, xT 0.11Andrews
    Burton Albion
    Finn Delap: 167 passningar, xT 0.25DelapCorey Kofi Cheremeh Addai: 160 passningar, xT 0.15AddaiToby Sibbick: 146 passningar, xT 0.27SibbickCurtis Anthony Tilt: 125 passningar, xT 0.18TiltGeorge Evans: 123 passningar, xT 0.12EvansCharlie Webster: 119 passningar, xT 0.17WebsterKgaogelo Chauke: 116 passningar, xT 0.03ChaukeSulyman Krubally: 97 passningar, xT 0.35KruballyJack Armer: 94 passningar, xT 0.4ArmerKyran Lofthouse: 60 passningar, xT 0.17LofthouseCaylan Vickers: 38 passningar, xT 0.19Vickers

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOxford UnitedBurton Albion
    Points78
    xPoints4.47.4
    xG per match1.20.91
    xGA per match2.11.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.510.22
    Playing styleOxford UnitedBurton Albion
    Build-up efficiency0.290.36
    Field tilt0.520.38
    xT per match0.790.54
    xTA per match1.11.1
    Won balls, offensive half1530
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.360.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.31
    Entries into the box per match106
    Entries into the box against1716
    Pass completion %0.710.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.65
    Passes per match313269
    Passes against per match262356
    Switches of play per match19.921.2
    Long balls per match2729
    Set piecesOxford UnitedBurton Albion
    xG from free kicks0.030.14
    Corners per match4.72.4
    Corners against per match7.55.3
    xG per corner00.01
    xGA per corner against0.060.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.320.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.62
    OtherOxford UnitedBurton Albion
    Throw-in control0.690.65
    The goalkeepersSimon Christopher Eastwood (Oxford United)Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion)
    Saves1112
    Save %73%63%
    xG prevented71%26%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Oxford United
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Burton Albion
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Oxford United vs Burton Albion according to our model?

    The model gives Oxford United a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oxford United 35%, draw 30%, Burton Albion 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.