EFL League OneWeston Homes Stadium, Peterborough15°21 km/h

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    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough UnitedPossession & high press
    vs
    Doncaster RoversDoncaster RoversCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Peterborough United (43%)

    Peterborough United – Doncaster Rovers · EFL League One

    1 · Peterborough United 43%X 26%31% Doncaster Rovers · 2

    Analysis: Peterborough United – Doncaster Rovers

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Peterborough United holds a 43% chance of victory against Doncaster Rovers, yet the most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw at 13%. Despite the head-to-head record tipping towards Doncaster in their two-match history, this small sample size is overshadowed by Peterborough's slight edge in current form, with an accumulation of four points compared to Doncaster's three.

    The hosts' style focuses on possession and pressing, contrasting with Doncaster's counter-attacking and cross-heavy strategy. Peterborough's expected goals (xG) of 1.47 to Doncaster's 1.16 suggests a narrow advantage in offensive potential. Defensively, Peterborough's 1.7 xGA per match raises concerns against Doncaster's more robust 1.3, indicating vulnerabilities that the visitors could exploit.

    The model slightly leans towards Peterborough while the over/under 2.5 goals sits delicately at 49%, showing no strong pull in either direction. With the most likely scoreline pinpointing a drawn match, the sharpest angle lies in the model's lean toward a Peterborough win, though bettors should note the lack of supporting head-to-head form. Despite the risk, backing the hosts to break their streak against Doncaster remains the more data-supported angle.

    Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United
    Form LWLDL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #20xT #2xP/match #16Points #20
    Key players
    • Owura Nsiah EdwardsFxG 0.06 · xT 0.65
    • Harley MillsLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
    • Brandon Singh KhelaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.03
    Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers
    Form LDDDL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #10xT #9xP/match #14Points #22
    Key players
    • Jack Christopher SeniorLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
    • Alfie Ben MayFxG 0.42 · xT 0.05
    • Owen John Edward BaileyRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Peterborough United – Doncaster Rovers

    Predicted score matrix

    Doncaster Rovers →
    Peterborough United →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.5%
    0–18.0%
    0–24.8%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–010.2%
    1–112.6%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–19.1%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–03.8%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.6%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.2-08%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,16
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    –
    Over 2,549%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Peterborough United or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Peterborough United or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Harry Paul Leonard to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Harry Paul Leonard to score24%
    • Robbie Gotts to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Peterborough United 0Draw 0Doncaster Rovers 2
    Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Peterborough United
    Doncaster Rovers
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Peterborough United (3–9)
    Doncaster Rovers (6–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Peterborough United
    Liam Anthony Kelly: 213 passningar, xT 0.36KellyDavid Chukwudubem Okagbue: 205 passningar, xT 0.21OkagbueHarley Mills: 201 passningar, xT 0.8MillsCarl Robert Johnston: 187 passningar, xT 0.25JohnstonAlexander Michael Bass: 168 passningar, xT 0.28BassThomas James O'Connor: 145 passningar, xT 0.2O'ConnorJames Daniel Dornelly: 132 passningar, xT 0.84DornellyBrandon Singh Khela: 121 passningar, xT -0.06KhelaBenjamin Jack Woods: 103 passningar, xT 0.39WoodsHarrison Jones: 98 passningar, xT 0.07JonesJosh Feeney: 93 passningar, xT 0.1Feeney
    Doncaster Rovers
    Neill Byrne: 184 passningar, xT 0.17ByrneRobbie Gotts: 158 passningar, xT 0.71GottsTommy James Simkin: 137 passningar, xT 0.25SimkinJohn-Alan McGrath: 134 passningar, xT 0.16McGrathSeán Grehan: 133 passningar, xT 0.51GrehanJack Christopher Senior: 113 passningar, xT 1.06SeniorOwen John Edward Bailey: 105 passningar, xT 0.42BaileyAlfie Ben May: 81 passningar, xT 0.23MayGeorge Broadbent: 68 passningar, xT 0.25BroadbentIsaac Hutchinson: 67 passningar, xT 0.05HutchinsonJamie Michael Sterry: 36 passningar, xT 0.09Sterry
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Peterborough United
    Liam Anthony Kelly: 213 passningar, xT 0.36KellyDavid Chukwudubem Okagbue: 205 passningar, xT 0.21OkagbueHarley Mills: 201 passningar, xT 0.8MillsCarl Robert Johnston: 187 passningar, xT 0.25JohnstonAlexander Michael Bass: 168 passningar, xT 0.28BassThomas James O'Connor: 145 passningar, xT 0.2O'ConnorJames Daniel Dornelly: 132 passningar, xT 0.84DornellyBrandon Singh Khela: 121 passningar, xT -0.06KhelaBenjamin Jack Woods: 103 passningar, xT 0.39WoodsHarrison Jones: 98 passningar, xT 0.07JonesJosh Feeney: 93 passningar, xT 0.1Feeney
    Doncaster Rovers
    Neill Byrne: 184 passningar, xT 0.17ByrneRobbie Gotts: 158 passningar, xT 0.71GottsTommy James Simkin: 137 passningar, xT 0.25SimkinJohn-Alan McGrath: 134 passningar, xT 0.16McGrathSeán Grehan: 133 passningar, xT 0.51GrehanJack Christopher Senior: 113 passningar, xT 1.06SeniorOwen John Edward Bailey: 105 passningar, xT 0.42BaileyAlfie Ben May: 81 passningar, xT 0.23MayGeorge Broadbent: 68 passningar, xT 0.25BroadbentIsaac Hutchinson: 67 passningar, xT 0.05HutchinsonJamie Michael Sterry: 36 passningar, xT 0.09Sterry

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePeterborough UnitedDoncaster Rovers
    Points43
    xPoints6.26.6
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match1.71.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.04
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.360.44
    Playing stylePeterborough UnitedDoncaster Rovers
    Build-up efficiency0.290.33
    Field tilt0.550.42
    xT per match1.31.1
    xTA per match1.10.89
    Won balls, offensive half2325
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.390.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.350.33
    Entries into the box per match1312
    Entries into the box against1216
    Pass completion %0.750.66
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.64
    Passes per match412285
    Passes against per match272285
    Switches of play per match16.725.9
    Long balls per match2737
    Set piecesPeterborough UnitedDoncaster Rovers
    xG from free kicks00.07
    Corners per match4.25.1
    Corners against per match56
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.050.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.570.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.520.66
    OtherPeterborough UnitedDoncaster Rovers
    Throw-in control0.730.75
    The goalkeepersAlexander Michael Bass (Peterborough United)Tommy James Simkin (Doncaster Rovers)
    Saves1914
    Save %70%64%
    xG prevented31%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Peterborough United
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Doncaster Rovers
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Peterborough United vs Doncaster Rovers according to our model?

    The model gives Peterborough United a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Peterborough United 43%, draw 26%, Doncaster Rovers 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.