Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic Prediction: Home win 47% (10 Oct 2026)

EFL League One10 October 2026 16:00 CESTLamex Stadium, Stevenage11°0,4 mm26 km/h

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StevenagePossession control

Wigan AthleticPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Stevenage (47%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.25 (+1 %)

1 · Stevenage 47%X 31%22% Wigan Athletic · 2

47%

31%

22%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Stevenage – Wigan Athletic

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

As Stevenage prepares to host Wigan Athletic, the battle seems to hinge on contrasting styles that, surprisingly, mirror each other in terms of possession control. Both teams prefer to dictate the game through possession, which could lead to a tightly contested midfield battle. This might result in fewer clear-cut chances, as each side looks to outmaneuver the other with tactical patience.

The numbers suggest a slight edge for the hosts, with the model giving Stevenage a 47% chance of securing the win. Recent form also leans toward Stevenage, who have picked up 9 points compared to Wigan's 4. However, when diving into expected goals (xG), Wigan surprisingly has the upper hand, averaging 1.5 xG per match against Stevenage's 1.0. This suggests that if Wigan can convert their chances, they could pose a significant threat.

The head-to-head record since 2023 shows an even split, with each team securing one win and two draws in their four encounters. While this small sample size shouldn't be overemphasized, it highlights the potential for a tight match. Both teams are expected to score, with a 51% probability, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline at 12%. The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 48%, indicating a match that could swing either way in terms of goals.

For those looking at betting angles, the value lies in the draw at odds of 3.25 with LeoVegas, which offers a marginal 1% edge according to the model's 31% draw probability. This reflects the tight nature of the matchup, where neither side might be able to fully capitalize on their strengths.

Stevenage

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #20xGA #4xT #18xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Oliver SandersonRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.13
Carl PiergianniCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
Luther James WildinRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08

Wigan Athletic

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #22xT #8xP/match #19Points #24

Key players

Max Mcauley PowerCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Sonny Tufail PerkinsFxG 0.59 · xT -0.01
Jensen Guy WeirRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Stevenage – Wigan Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Wigan Athletic →

Stevenage →

0–07.9%

0–17.5%

0–24.1%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.2%

1–112.5%

1–26.3%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.4%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.6%

3–14.8%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.5%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,55–1,04

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.70

Over 2,548%

@2.08

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Stevenage to win47%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Stevenage to win47%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Joshua Brendan David Magennis to score24%
Morgan Alexander Fox to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.25LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Stevenage	X	2 · Wigan Athletic
Betsafe	2.12	3.20	3.35
LeoVegas	2.10	EV+ 1% 3.25	3.25
Nordicbet	2.12	3.20	3.35

Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

10 %

46 %41 %

2.10 → 2.10

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.25 → 3.25

2+2 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.25

Over 2,5+1 %

48 %43 %

2.00 → 2.02

LeoVegas · 8 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Stevenage 1Draw 2Wigan Athletic 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Stevenage

Wigan Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Stevenage (11–8)

Wigan Athletic (5–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Stevenage

Wigan Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Stevenage

Wigan Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Stevenage	Wigan Athletic
Points	9	4
xPoints	9.6	8.3
xG per match	1	1.5
xGA per match	1	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.23

Playing style	Stevenage	Wigan Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.59
xT per match	0.81	1.1
xTA per match	0.73	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	36	20
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.38	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.62	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.59	0.7
Passes per match	230	365
Passes against per match	329	300
Switches of play per match	20.3	17.1
Long balls per match	38	25

Set pieces	Stevenage	Wigan Athletic
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	4.1	5.7
Corners against per match	4.9	5.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.62

Other	Stevenage	Wigan Athletic
Throw-in control	0.74	0.73

The goalkeepers	Lewis Freestone (Stevenage)	Joe Whitworth (Wigan Athletic)
Saves	8	11
Save %	100%	65%
xG prevented	100%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Stevenage

Fixtures, form & tips

Wigan Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Stevenage a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stevenage 47%, draw 31%, Wigan Athletic 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.