AC Milan vs Benfica: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

Europa League16 September 202623°0,1 mm7 km/h

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AC Milan

0–2

BenficaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Benfica (51%)

1 · AC Milan 26%X 23%51% Benfica · 2

26%

23%

51%

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Analysis: AC Milan – Benfica

Marcus Johansson · 14 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A 51% probability for Benfica to win against AC Milan, juxtaposed with tempting odds of 3.35 across multiple bookmakers, signals a strong lean towards the visitors. This edge is notable, especially given Benfica's unbeaten streak in their last five league outings, contrasting with the hefty challenge AC Milan face to disrupt their momentum. The Portuguese side's strength lies in their dynamic transitions and ability to exploit the flanks, which could unsettle Milan's defensive setup.

The expected goals model paints a slightly more balanced picture, yet still favors Benfica with figures of 1.56 against Milan's 1.24. This aligns with the most likely scorelines, where a 1-1 draw (12%) edges out a narrow 1-2 away victory (9%). However, Milan’s struggle to maintain defensive solidity could see them concede. Both teams are projected to score, with a 57% likelihood, suggesting a competitive match where neither side keeps a clean sheet.

Weather conditions, notably light rain, are expected to have a minimal impact, with an over 2.5 goal probability at 53%, indicating a match that could surpass two goals. The most compelling angle remains on Benfica to clinch victory, with a significant value edge offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 3.35 odds.

AC Milan

Form LWWLL

Key players

Samuel ChukwuezeRWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.44
Gonçalo RamosFxG 0.53 · xT -0.02
Strahinja PavlovićCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
Numbers from Serie A 2026

Benfica

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #6xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Vangelis PavlidisFxG 1.21 · xT 0.07
Leandro BarreiroRWxG 0.70 · xT 0.01
Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.23

Final score

0 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: AC Milan 26% · Draw 23% · Benfica 51%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - BenficaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,66fair 7,85+10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AC MilanBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,62fair 12,44-47 %

Miss

Match prediction: AC Milan – Benfica

Predicted score matrix

Benfica →

AC Milan →

0–06.4%

0–19.1%

0–27.4%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.1%

1–07.2%

1–112.1%

1–29.2%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.7%

2–04.7%

2–17.3%

2–25.7%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.6%

3–01.9%

3–13.0%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,24–1,56

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.14EV+0%

Over 2,553%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benfica to win51%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benfica to win51%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Vangelis Pavlidis to score32%
Luka Modrić to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Benfica51% probability@3.46PinnacleEV+77%reference odds
2 · Benfica51% probability@2.98BetsafeEV+52%reference odds
2 · Benfica51% probability@2.98BetssonEV+52%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AC Milan	X	2 · Benfica
Betsafe	2.32	3.50	EV+ 52% 2.98
Betsson	2.32	3.50	EV+ 52% 2.98
Nordicbet	2.32	3.50	EV+ 52% 2.98
Pinnacle	2.04	3.62	EV+ 77% 3.46

Odds updated 16 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

47 %42 %

2.12 → 2.04

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.48 → 3.62

2+2 %

31 %26 %

3.38 → 3.46

Over 2,5-1 %

58 %53 %

1.72 → 1.71

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Benfica

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Benfica (19–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Benfica

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Benfica

The goalkeepers	AC Milan	Anatolii Trubin (Benfica)
Saves	–	6
Save %	–	75%
xG prevented	–	54%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

AC Milan

Fixtures, form & tips

Benfica

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AC Milan vs Benfica according to our model?

The model gives Benfica a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AC Milan 26%, draw 23%, Benfica 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.