Anderlecht vs Lyon: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

Europa League16 September 202619°17 km/h

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AnderlechtLow block & direct

1–2

Lyon

The model's lean: 1 · Anderlecht (42%)

1 · Anderlecht 42%X 25%34% Lyon · 2

42%

25%

34%

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Analysis: Anderlecht – Lyon

Sofia Andersson · 14 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Anderlecht enter their Europa League clash with Lyon riding a three-game winning streak, a run that suggests they're in formidable form. The model, favoring Anderlecht with a 42% win probability, aligns with this momentum, indicating that the hosts have the edge. Despite the expected goals being nearly level—1.37 for Anderlecht and 1.39 for Lyon—the home side's recent performances give them an upper hand that's not fully reflected in the odds.

The betting markets haven't caught up to Anderlecht's current form, presenting a significant opportunity. With a 50% edge, the odds of 3.6 for a home win offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet represent a standout value. The odds suggest the market underestimates Anderlecht's potential against Lyon.

While the most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (8%), and 1-2 (8%), the model's lean towards Anderlecht underscores their capacity to secure victory. Given the 52% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring, we might anticipate a closely contested encounter with goals from both sides.

This match hinges on Anderlecht's ability to capitalize on their form and harness the energy of playing at home against Lyon. The visitors, though capable, aren't favored by the numbers.

The clearest betting angle here is the value on an Anderlecht win, emphasized by the odds available across multiple bookmakers. For those seeking a sharp play, backing the home side at these odds is an enticing proposition.

Anderlecht

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #21xP/match #8Points #5

Key players

Mihajlo CvetkovićFxG 0.97 · xT -0.03
Danylo SikanFxG 0.32 · xT 0.09
Marco KanaFxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Lyon

Form WWWDL

Key players

Corentin TolissoCAMxG 0.67 · xT 0.11
Martín Adrián Satriano CostaFxG 0.56 · xT 0.03
Ainsley Maitland NilesRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Anderlecht 42% · Draw 25% · Lyon 34%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AnderlechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,24fair 10,16-19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - LyonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,61fair 9,86-33 %

Miss

Match prediction: Anderlecht – Lyon

Predicted score matrix

Lyon →

Anderlecht →

0–06.7%

0–18.5%

0–26.1%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.4%

1–112.4%

1–28.4%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.9%

2–18.2%

2–25.7%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.7%

3–13.8%

3–22.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-18%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,37–1,39

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.23EV+3%

Over 2,552%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Anderlecht or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Anderlecht or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Danylo Sikan to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Danylo Sikan to score24%
Abner Vinícius da Silva Santos to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Anderlecht42% probability@3.12PinnacleEV+30%reference odds
1 · Anderlecht42% probability@2.98BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
1 · Anderlecht42% probability@2.98BetssonEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Anderlecht	X	2 · Lyon
Betsafe	EV+ 24% 2.98	3.50	2.32
Betsson	EV+ 24% 2.98	3.50	2.32
Nordicbet	EV+ 24% 2.98	3.50	2.32
Pinnacle	EV+ 30% 3.12	3.67	2.17

Odds updated 16 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Anderlecht win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 3.45 to 3.12 (−10%).

1-10 %

31 %26 %

3.45 → 3.12

X-3 %

28 %23 %

3.77 → 3.67

2+9 %

48 %43 %

2.00 → 2.17

Over 2,5+1 %

60 %55 %

1.64 → 1.65

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

RSC Anderlecht come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Anderlecht

Lyon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Anderlecht (7–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Anderlecht

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Anderlecht

The goalkeepers	Colin Coosemans (Anderlecht)	Lyon
Saves	7	–
Save %	78%	–
xG prevented	42%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Anderlecht

Fixtures, form & tips

Lyon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Anderlecht vs Lyon according to our model?

The model gives Anderlecht a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Anderlecht 42%, draw 25%, Lyon 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.