Europa League18°8 km/h

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    Sturm GrazSturm GrazPossession control
    0–0
    RennesRennes
    The model's lean: 1 · Sturm Graz (41%)

    Sturm Graz vs Rennes · Europa League

    1 · Sturm Graz 41%X 26%33% Rennes · 2

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    Analysis: Sturm Graz – Rennes

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Sturm Graz's defensive solidity meets Rennes's attacking flair in a Europa League clash where the numbers suggest the Austrians may have the upper hand. The hosts have a 41% chance of victory, according to the model, slightly edging Rennes's 33%. With expected goals fairly balanced at 1.44 for Graz and 1.50 for the visitors, the game promises to be closely contested. A cautious 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most likely outcome (12%), but don't rule out a narrow home win at 2-1 (8%).

    Recent form and expected goals suggest a contest where both teams find the net. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 60%, aligning with the over 2.5 goals probability of 56%. These statistics indicate that while the match might not explode into a goal-laden affair, it should see its fair share of excitement, albeit tempered by tactical discipline.

    It's important to consider the small head-to-head sample, which lacks the weight to tilt predictions significantly. Instead, current season form and underlying performance metrics provide a clearer picture, with Sturm Graz's home advantage and adept defensive organization likely key factors. Graz may not dazzle, but their methodical play could frustrate Rennes, who will need to be clinical in their attacking transitions.

    For those looking to bet, the real value lies with the home team. With odds of 3.7 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, backing Sturm Graz offers a substantial edge of 51% based on the model's assessment. While nothing is guaranteed, this value stands out as the sharpest angle in a tightly matched contest.

    Sturm GrazSturm Graz
    Form DLLLW
    League ranking xG #56xGA #49xT #49xP/match #52Points #30
    Key players
    • Tomi HorvatRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.10
    • Otar KiteishviliCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
    • Tochi ChukwuaniCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
    RennesRennes
    Key players
    • Estéban LepaulFxG 0.65 · xT -0.02
    • Mousa Mohammad Mousa Sulaiman Al Ta'mariRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
    • Ludovic Régis Arsène BlasFxG 0.46 · xT 0.21
    • Numbers from Ligue 1 2026
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sturm Graz 41% · Draw 26% · Rennes 33%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - SK Sturm GrazBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,17fair 9,06+1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - RennesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,46fair 8,30-46 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sturm Graz – Rennes

    Predicted score matrix

    Rennes →
    Sturm Graz →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–17.6%
    0–26.0%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–07.3%
    1–111.7%
    1–28.6%
    1–34.3%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–18.2%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.1%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–13.9%
    3–23.0%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.5%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,44–1,50
    Both teams to score
    60%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.50EV+9%
    Over 2,556%
    @1.53

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sturm Graz or draw (1X)61%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.07

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sturm Graz or draw (1X)61%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Jacob Peter Hödl to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score60%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Jacob Peter Hödl to score26%
    • Luca Weinhandl to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Sturm Graz41% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+71%reference odds
    • 1 · Sturm Graz41% probability@4.20BetssonEV+71%reference odds
    • 1 · Sturm Graz41% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+71%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sturm GrazX2 · Rennes
    Betsafe
    EV+ 71%
    4.20    		3.651.85
    Betsson
    EV+ 71%
    4.20    		3.651.85
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 71%
    4.20    		3.651.85
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 48%
    3.64
    EV+ 5%
    3.99    		1.88

    Odds updated 16 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    30 %25 %

    3.37 → 3.64

    X0 %
    26 %21 %

    3.98 → 3.99

    2-4 %
    52 %47 %

    1.97 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sturm Graz
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Sturm Graz (5–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sturm Graz
    Emir Karic: 224 passningar, xT 0.66KaricJon Gorenc Stankovic: 190 passningar, xT 0.38StankovicEmanuel Aiwu: 175 passningar, xT 0.2AiwuOtar Kiteishvili: 167 passningar, xT 0.43KiteishviliArjan Malic: 122 passningar, xT 0.41MalicTomi Horvat: 117 passningar, xT 0.47HorvatTochi Chukwuani: 93 passningar, xT 0.05ChukwuaniNiklas Geyrhofer: 89 passningar, xT 0.08GeyrhoferJeyland Yahir Mitchell Baltodano: 71 passningar, xT 0.18BaltodanoOliver Christensen: 71 passningar, xT 0.06ChristensenTim Oermann: 68 passningar, xT 0.07Oermann
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sturm Graz
    Emir Karic: 224 passningar, xT 0.66KaricJon Gorenc Stankovic: 190 passningar, xT 0.38StankovicEmanuel Aiwu: 175 passningar, xT 0.2AiwuOtar Kiteishvili: 167 passningar, xT 0.43KiteishviliArjan Malic: 122 passningar, xT 0.41MalicTomi Horvat: 117 passningar, xT 0.47HorvatTochi Chukwuani: 93 passningar, xT 0.05ChukwuaniNiklas Geyrhofer: 89 passningar, xT 0.08GeyrhoferJeyland Yahir Mitchell Baltodano: 71 passningar, xT 0.18BaltodanoOliver Christensen: 71 passningar, xT 0.06ChristensenTim Oermann: 68 passningar, xT 0.07Oermann
    The goalkeepersOliver Christensen (Sturm Graz)Rennes
    Saves18–
    Save %78%–
    xG prevented62%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sturm Graz
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Rennes
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sturm Graz vs Rennes according to our model?

    The model gives Sturm Graz a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sturm Graz 41%, draw 26%, Rennes 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.