Europa League26°23 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Hapoel Be'er ShevaHapoel Be'er Sheva
    0–0
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo ZagrebBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva (40%)

    Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb · Europa League

    1 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva 40%X 26%34% Dinamo Zagreb · 2

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Hapoel Be'er Sheva – Dinamo Zagreb

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    A striking 47% edge makes Hapoel Be'er Sheva the standout bet at odds of 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the hosts rated at a 40% chance of victory, the odds reflect an undervaluation of their potential. The model sees a narrow edge for Be'er Sheva, predicting a close contest with expected goals slightly favoring them at 1.47 to Dinamo Zagreb's 1.34.

    Be'er Sheva's playing style, often characterized by solid pressing and swift transitions, could exploit Dinamo's occasional vulnerabilities on the flanks. Dinamo, on the other hand, prefers to control the game through organized build-up play but may struggle against a home side eager to disrupt rhythm and capitalize on turnovers. Despite the small head-to-head sample size, current form and tactical tendencies suggest a match where the hosts might edge out.

    With an over 2.5 goals probability of 53% and both teams to score at 57%, the match leans towards a high-scoring affair. Yet, the most likely scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 reflect a tightly contested game. The sharpest angle here is the significant value on Be'er Sheva's win, making it the prime betting recommendation for those eyeing an opportunity.

    Hapoel Be'er ShevaHapoel Be'er Sheva
    Key players
    • Muhammad Abu RumiRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.03
    • Pedro Miguel Santos AmadorLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
    • Lucas VenturaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
    • Numbers from Israeli Premier League 2026
    Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
    Form LWLLD
    League ranking xG #31xGA #15xT #29xP/match #13Points #27
    Key players
    • Dion Drena BeljoFxG 0.78 · xT 0.02
    • Mounsef BakrarFxG 0.27 · xT -0.01
    • Moris ValinčićRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 40% · Draw 26% · Dinamo Zagreb 34%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Hapoel Beer ShevaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 10,52fair 8,80+20 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Dinamo ZagrebBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,08fair 10,48-52 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Hapoel Be'er Sheva – Dinamo Zagreb

    Predicted score matrix

    Dinamo Zagreb →
    Hapoel Be'er Sheva →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–17.7%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–112.2%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.6%
    2
    2–06.5%
    2–18.7%
    2–25.8%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.3%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-18%
    Expected goals
    1,47–1,34
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.29EV+7%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.64

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Igor Zlatanović to score36%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Igor Zlatanović to score36%
    • Zahi Ahmed to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva40% probability@4.15BetsafeEV+65%reference odds
    • 1 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva40% probability@4.15BetssonEV+65%reference odds
    • 1 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva40% probability@4.15NordicbetEV+65%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hapoel Be'er ShevaX2 · Dinamo Zagreb
    Betsafe
    EV+ 65%
    4.15    		3.651.85
    Betsson
    EV+ 65%
    4.15    		3.651.85
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 65%
    4.15    		3.651.85
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 43%
    3.60
    EV+ 2%
    3.86    		1.93

    Odds updated 16 Sept, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1+10 %
    30 %25 %

    3.26 → 3.60

    X+1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.84 → 3.86

    2-6 %
    50 %45 %

    2.05 → 1.93

    Over 2,5+1 %
    61 %56 %

    1.63 → 1.64

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dinamo Zagreb
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Dinamo Zagreb (16–22)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Josip Mišić: 264 passningar, xT 0.27MišićScott Fraser McKenna: 256 passningar, xT 0.5McKennaSergi Domínguez Viloria: 191 passningar, xT 0.26ViloriaMiha Zajc: 137 passningar, xT 0.18ZajcNiko Galešić: 128 passningar, xT 0.51GalešićBruno Goda: 124 passningar, xT 0.46GodaMoris Valinčić: 106 passningar, xT 0.2ValinčićLuka Stojković: 103 passningar, xT -0.04StojkovićOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 96 passningar, xT 0.12VinlöfDominik Livaković: 87 passningar, xT 0.09LivakovićIvan Filipović: 73 passningar, xT 0.07Filipović
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Josip Mišić: 264 passningar, xT 0.27MišićScott Fraser McKenna: 256 passningar, xT 0.5McKennaSergi Domínguez Viloria: 191 passningar, xT 0.26ViloriaMiha Zajc: 137 passningar, xT 0.18ZajcNiko Galešić: 128 passningar, xT 0.51GalešićBruno Goda: 124 passningar, xT 0.46GodaMoris Valinčić: 106 passningar, xT 0.2ValinčićLuka Stojković: 103 passningar, xT -0.04StojkovićOlof Matteo Perez Vinlöf: 96 passningar, xT 0.12VinlöfDominik Livaković: 87 passningar, xT 0.09LivakovićIvan Filipović: 73 passningar, xT 0.07Filipović
    The goalkeepersHapoel Be'er ShevaIvan Nevistić (Dinamo Zagreb)
    Saves–10
    Save %–59%
    xG prevented–57%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hapoel Be'er Sheva
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dinamo Zagreb
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb according to our model?

    The model gives Hapoel Be'er Sheva a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 40%, draw 26%, Dinamo Zagreb 34%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Iberia 1999Iberia 1999
    2–1
    LarneLarne
    1 69%X 18%2 13%
    The model called the outcome
    KÍKÍ
    0–5
    Lech PoznańLech Poznań
    1 23%X 23%2 53%
    The model called the outcome
    Universitatea CraiovaUniversitatea Craiova
    2–1
    KuPSKuPS
    1 54%X 24%2 22%
    The model called the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Hämta bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.

    Se ComeOns villkor

    Hämta bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.

    Se Hajpers villkor

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.