Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia Białystok: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

Europa League16 September 202622°19 km/h

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Olympiacos

2–1

Jagiellonia BiałystokLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Olympiacos (68%)Best value by the model: 2 · Jagiellonia Białystok @ 8.13 (+8 %)

1 · Olympiacos 68%X 19%13% Jagiellonia Białystok · 2

68%

19%

13%

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Analysis: Olympiacos – Jagiellonia Białystok

Anna Karlsson · 14 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

The model's probabilities place Olympiacos as clear favorites, with a commanding 68% chance of victory. Jagiellonia's meager 13% chance speaks volumes about the uphill battle they face. Expected goals further highlight this disparity: Olympiacos are projected to generate 2.17 xG compared to Jagiellonia's 0.94. This gap underscores the likelihood of the hosts dictating the game's tempo and creating more scoring opportunities.

Offensively, Olympiacos are expected to put pressure on the Jagiellonia defense, with the most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 each having a 10% chance of occurring. That said, Jagiellonia have enough firepower to pose a threat, as indicated by the 54% probability for both teams to score. The tactical battle will be fascinating: can Jagiellonia exploit any defensive lapses, or will Olympiacos's attacking verve prove too much?

For those eyeing value, the over 2.5 goals market presents a compelling angle. The over has a 60% chance, suggesting a match that could see multiple goals, aligning with the aggressive style Olympiacos may adopt. Meanwhile, Bet365 offers odds that reflect this potential for goals, making it a tempting prospect for bettors. As the curtain rises on what promises to be a captivating match, all eyes will be on whether Olympiacos can dominate, or if Jagiellonia can spring an upset.

Olympiacos

Form DWWLW

Key players

Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.79 · xT 0.01
Panagiotis RetsosCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Konstantinos FortounisFxG 0.15 · xT 0.58
Numbers from Greece Super League 2026

Jagiellonia Białystok

Form LLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #22xT #9xP/match #10Points #15

Key players

Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.15 · xT 0.23
Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Nik PrelecFxG 0.52 · xT 0.03
Numbers from Ekstraklasa 2026

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Olympiacos 68% · Draw 19% · Jagiellonia Białystok 13%

Match prediction: Olympiacos – Jagiellonia Białystok

Predicted score matrix

Jagiellonia Białystok →

Olympiacos →

0–04.7%

0–13.9%

0–22.0%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.3%

1–19.3%

1–24.3%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.4%

2–19.9%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.6%

3–17.2%

3–23.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–06.8%

4+–16.5%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,17–0,94

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@2.26

Over 2,560%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Olympiacos to win68%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Olympiacos to win68%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Ayoub El Kaabi to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Ayoub El Kaabi to score43%
Taras Romanczuk to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Jagiellonia Białystok13% probability@8.13PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Olympiacos	X	2 · Jagiellonia Białystok
Pinnacle	1.37	4.80	EV+ 8% 8.13

Odds updated 15 Sept, 10:13

Odds movement

10 %

71 %66 %

1.37 → 1.37

X-1 %

22 %17 %

4.84 → 4.80

20 %

14 %9 %

8.17 → 8.13

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Jagiellonia Białystok (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Jagiellonia Białystok

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Jagiellonia Białystok

The goalkeepers	Olympiacos	Bernardo Vital (Jagiellonia Białystok)
Saves	–	4
Save %	–	100%
xG prevented	–	100%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Olympiacos

Fixtures, form & tips

Jagiellonia Białystok

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia Białystok according to our model?

The model gives Olympiacos a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Olympiacos 68%, draw 19%, Jagiellonia Białystok 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.