Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction & Odds (16 Sept 2026)

Europa League16 September 202614°1,0 mm18 km/h

Läs på svenska

Sunderland

1–0

AZ AlkmaarLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · AZ Alkmaar (54%)

1 · Sunderland 23%X 23%54% AZ Alkmaar · 2

23%

54%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar

Sofia Andersson · 14 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: A stark 54% probability for AZ Alkmaar in the model's eyes suggests a dominant away performance against Sunderland. The visitors boast a compelling streak, having scored in nine consecutive league matches, reinforcing their attacking credentials. Expected goals further highlight this disparity, forecasting 1.66 for AZ against a mere 0.84 for the hosts. Such numbers illuminate AZ's potential to control the game, while Sunderland's prospects seem dim.

The most probable outcomes mirror this imbalance: a 0-1 AZ victory leads at 13%, closely followed by a 1-1 draw (12%) and a 0-2 away triumph (11%). Clearly, the model envisions a game where Sunderland struggles to breach the Dutch defense. With both teams to score and over 2.5 goals each at just 46%, the inclination is towards a tight, low-scoring affair dominated by AZ's tactical discipline.

Small head-to-head samples between the sides mean less in this calculus than current form and projected performance. Sunderland's challenge is daunting, with the visitors riding high on consistent scoring form. This narrative leans heavily towards an AZ win, making any other result seem unlikely given the statistical backdrop.

From a betting perspective, the value proposition is crystal clear. AZ Alkmaar at odds of 5.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a staggering 172% edge according to the model. This opportunity stands out as the sharpest angle for this match, far more enticing than any play on goals or a Sunderland upset. With the numbers aligning and value apparent, backing the visitors in this Europa League clash appears not just favorable, but astute.

Sunderland

Key players

Granit XhakaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
Nilson AnguloLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Trai HumeFxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
Numbers from Premier League 2026

AZ Alkmaar

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #31xGA #20xT #28xP/match #27Points #13

Key players

Troy ParrottFxG 0.35 · xT 0.15
Ernest PokuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.14
Sven MijnansCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.16

Final score

1 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sunderland 23% · Draw 23% · AZ Alkmaar 54%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - AZ AlkmaarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 20,62fair 8,10+155 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SunderlandBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,65fair 30,67-85 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar

Predicted score matrix

AZ Alkmaar →

Sunderland →

0–08.5%

0–113.3%

0–211.3%

0–36.2%

0–4+3.8%

1–06.6%

1–111.8%

1–29.5%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.2%

2–02.9%

2–14.8%

2–24.0%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.3%

3–00.8%

3–11.4%

3–21.1%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-113%
2.1-112%
3.0-211%
4.1-210%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

0,84–1,66

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@2.15EV+17%

Over 2,546%

@1.71

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

AZ Alkmaar to win54%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

AZ Alkmaar to win54%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Ro-Zangelo Daal to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Brian Ebenezer Adjei Brobbey to score28%
Wouter Goes to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · AZ Alkmaar54% probability@6.40BetsafeEV+248%reference odds
2 · AZ Alkmaar54% probability@6.40BetssonEV+248%reference odds
2 · AZ Alkmaar54% probability@6.40NordicbetEV+248%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sunderland	X	2 · AZ Alkmaar
Betsafe	1.52	4.20	EV+ 248% 6.40
Betsson	1.52	4.20	EV+ 248% 6.40
Nordicbet	1.52	4.20	EV+ 248% 6.40
Pinnacle	1.61	4.15	EV+ 175% 5.06

Odds updated 16 Sept, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sunderland win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 1.72 to 1.61 (−6%).

1-6 %

59 %54 %

1.72 → 1.61

X+5 %

26 %21 %

3.94 → 4.15

2+13 %

22 %17 %

4.47 → 5.06

Over 2,5-1 %

58 %53 %

1.74 → 1.71

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 15/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

AZ Alkmaar have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

When goals are scored and conceded — 2024

AZ Alkmaar (21–19)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AZ Alkmaar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AZ Alkmaar

The goalkeepers	Sunderland	Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro (AZ Alkmaar)
Saves	–	29
Save %	–	62%
xG prevented	–	38%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

AZ Alkmaar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar according to our model?

The model gives AZ Alkmaar a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sunderland 23%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 54%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.