Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Prediction: Home win 70% (15 Oct 2026)

Europa League15 October 202612°0,3 mm9 km/h

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Sparta PrahaPossession & high press

LillestrømPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Sparta Praha (70%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lillestrøm @ 8.40 (+17 %)

1 · Sparta Praha 70%X 16%14% Lillestrøm · 2

70%

16%

14%

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Analysis: Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm

Oscar Nilsson · 7 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Sparta Praha's commanding 70% win probability sets a clear expectation for this Europa League clash against Lillestrøm. Despite both teams favoring a possession and high press playing style, the Czech hosts dominate the model's metrics. Expected goals stand at 2.41 for Sparta and 1.08 for Lillestrøm, suggesting that the home side will find the net more effectively.

The clash of these similar styles could lead to a congested midfield battle, but historical performance leans towards Sparta's superiority. While both teams have similar xG profiles—2.9 for Sparta against 2.6 for Lillestrøm—the margin in expected goals against, 1.3 vs 1.5, further tips the scales in favor of the Prague side. The game's most likely outcomes, 2-1 and 2-0, underline the hosts' expected edge. However, with a 60% chance both teams find the net, the visitors could still make their mark on the scoresheet.

The rain might dampen attacking fluency slightly, but the over 3.5 goals market shows value at odds of 2.25 with LeoVegas, given the model's 46% probability. A final score of 2-1 seems the most plausible, aligning with the over 2.5 goals being the standout play, supported by the model's 68% prediction.

Sparta Praha

Form W

League ranking xG #5xGA #23xT #14xP/match #19Points #25

Key players

Adam KarabecRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.18
Roman MacekCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
John Anthony Mercado CueroRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.20
Numbers from Czech First League 2026

Lillestrøm

Form L

League ranking xG #8xGA #31xT #2xP/match #14Points #57

Key players

Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
Lars RangerRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Salieu DrammehRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.22
Numbers from Eliteserien 2026

Match prediction: Sparta Praha – Lillestrøm

Predicted score matrix

Lillestrøm →

Sparta Praha →

0–03.3%

0–13.1%

0–21.8%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.1%

1–18.2%

1–24.3%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.5%

2–08.9%

2–19.6%

2–25.2%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.1%

3–17.7%

3–24.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.5%

4+–07.6%

4+–18.2%

4+–24.4%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-18%
4.3-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,41–1,08

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

@2.45

Over 2,568%

@1.55EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sparta Praha to win70%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sparta Praha to win70%
Over 2.5 goals68%
John Anthony Mercado Cuero to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals68%
John Anthony Mercado Cuero to score33%
Gustav Kjølstad Nyheim to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lillestrøm14% probability@8.40BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
2 · Lillestrøm14% probability@8.40NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
Over 4.527% probability@4.15BetsafeEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sparta Praha	X	2 · Lillestrøm
Betsafe	1.37	4.85	EV+ 17% 8.40
LeoVegas	1.33	4.90	7.00
Nordicbet	1.37	4.85	EV+ 17% 8.40

Odds updated 7 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sparta Praha (4–1)

Lillestrøm (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sparta Praha

Lillestrøm

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sparta Praha

Lillestrøm

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sparta Praha	Lillestrøm
Points	3	0
xPoints	1.6	1.7
xG per match	2.9	2.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.27

Playing style	Sparta Praha	Lillestrøm
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.34
Field tilt	0.71	0.76
xT per match	1.4	2.1
xTA per match	0.79	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	42	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.28
Entries into the box per match	14	22
Entries into the box against	7	9
Pass completion %	0.81	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	431	501
Passes against per match	300	219
Switches of play per match	34.5	32.1
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	Sparta Praha	Lillestrøm
xG from free kicks	0.09	0
Corners per match	13.2	11
Corners against per match	2	2
xG per corner	0.09	0.08
xGA per corner against	0.33	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0	0.5

Other	Sparta Praha	Lillestrøm
Throw-in control	0.82	0.78

The goalkeepers	Loïc Junior Mbe Soh (Sparta Praha)	Filip Ottosson (Lillestrøm)
Saves	1	2
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sparta Praha

Fixtures, form & tips

Lillestrøm

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm according to our model?

The model gives Sparta Praha a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sparta Praha 70%, draw 16%, Lillestrøm 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.