Benfica vs Celtic Prediction: Home win 61% (15 Oct 2026)

Europa League15 October 202622°16 km/h

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BenficaPossession & high press

CelticPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Benfica (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · Celtic @ 11.00 (+98 %)

1 · Benfica 61%X 21%18% Celtic · 2

61%

21%

18%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Benfica – Celtic

Anna Karlsson · 7 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Benfica's recent form is an undeniable force, and their three consecutive wins have fortified their status as favorites against Celtic in the upcoming clash. The statistical model gives them a 61% chance of victory, with the most likely scorelines being 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1. With expected goals heavily favoring the hosts at 2.13 to Celtic's 0.87, it's clear which side has the upper hand.

While Celtic's style of possession control might suggest a close contest, their performance metrics tell a different story. They have yet to secure a single point in this campaign, while Benfica have accumulated 16. The expected points further highlight this disparity, with Benfica at 13.7 compared to Celtic's 0.9. The Portuguese side also outshine their Scottish counterparts in both offensive and defensive expected goals, suggesting a comprehensive advantage.

Despite Celtic's potential to disrupt through possession, the numbers suggest they're likely to struggle against Benfica's high press. Yet, the allure of football lies in its unpredictability, and with Celtic's odds at 8.5, offered by LeoVegas, there's a significant 53% edge according to the model. This presents an intriguing value bet for the daring, albeit against the weight of statistical evidence.

For those looking at total goals, the over 2.5 goals market leans slightly towards fruition at 58%. However, the under 2.5 goals bet carries an 8% edge with LeoVegas at 2.55 odds, potentially appealing to value seekers who believe in a tighter contest than the model predicts.

In essence, while all signs point to a Benfica victory, the betting angles suggest there's room for the unexpected. Whether it's Celtic pulling off a shock or a low-scoring affair, the odds present tantalizing prospects for the adventurous punter.

Benfica

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #11xP/match #7Points #3

Key players

Vangelis PavlidisFxG 1.17 · xT 0.06
Leandro BarreiroRWxG 0.69 · xT 0.01
Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.24

Celtic

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #40xGA #22xT #27xP/match #42Points #50

Key players

Benjamin NygrenRWxG 0.59 · xT 0.17
Reo HatateCAMxG 0.34 · xT 0.17
Liam ScalesCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Benfica – Celtic

Predicted score matrix

Celtic →

Benfica →

0–05.2%

0–14.0%

0–21.9%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.3%

1–19.5%

1–24.0%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.3%

2–19.8%

2–24.3%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.0%

3–17.0%

3–23.0%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–07.0%

4+–16.1%

4+–22.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,13–0,87

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.65EV+12%

Over 2,558%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Benfica to win61%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Benfica to win61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Gianluca Prestianni Gross to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Gianluca Prestianni Gross to score37%
Callum William McGregor to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Celtic18% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+98%reference odds
2 · Celtic18% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+98%reference odds
2 · Celtic18% probability@8.50LeoVegasEV+53%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Benfica	X	2 · Celtic
Betsafe	1.30	EV+ 11% 5.30	EV+ 98% 11.00
LeoVegas	1.24	EV+ 21% 5.75	EV+ 53% 8.50
Nordicbet	1.30	EV+ 11% 5.30	EV+ 98% 11.00

Odds updated 8 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

76 %71 %

1.29 → 1.30

X+1 %

21 %16 %

5.25 → 5.30

2-4 %

11 %6 %

11.50 → 11.00

Over 2,5+1 %

67 %62 %

1.47 → 1.48

Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 07/10/2026 → 08/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Benfica come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Benfica

Celtic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Benfica (21–6)

Celtic (1–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Benfica

Celtic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Benfica

Celtic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Benfica	Celtic
Points	16	0
xPoints	13.7	0.9
xG per match	2.6	1.1
xGA per match	0.75	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.19

Playing style	Benfica	Celtic
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.37
Field tilt	0.69	0.58
xT per match	1.5	1
xTA per match	0.74	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	28	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	23	16
Entries into the box against	9	6
Pass completion %	0.83	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.75
Passes per match	508	561
Passes against per match	296	292
Switches of play per match	44.3	49.2
Long balls per match	44	47

Set pieces	Benfica	Celtic
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	6.7	11.3
Corners against per match	3.4	3.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.64
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.67

Other	Benfica	Celtic
Throw-in control	0.74	0.72

The goalkeepers	Anatolii Trubin (Benfica)	Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic)
Saves	10	3
Save %	83%	50%
xG prevented	62%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Benfica

Fixtures, form & tips

Celtic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Benfica vs Celtic according to our model?

The model gives Benfica a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Benfica 61%, draw 21%, Celtic 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.