Ferencváros vs Viktoria Plzeň Prediction: Home win 59% (15 Oct 2026)

Europa League15 October 20269°9 km/h

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FerencvárosLow block & direct

Viktoria PlzeňPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Ferencváros (59%)

1 · Ferencváros 59%X 22%19% Viktoria Plzeň · 2

59%

22%

19%

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Analysis: Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň

Sofia Andersson · 7 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Ferencváros come into this match with a distinct edge in momentum and form, riding a wave of three consecutive victories. Their ability to find the back of the net in nine straight league matches also speaks volumes about their attacking prowess. Despite the low defence set-up, the hosts have been clinical, which aligns well with their expected goals metric of 1.89. Viktoria Plzeň, on the other hand, appear to be more comfortable with possession and a high press, yet they only have three points to show for their efforts this season.

A deeper dive into the numbers suggests Ferencváros hold a significant advantage. Points and xPoints both tilt heavily in their favor, underlining their superior form and efficiency throughout the campaign. While Viktoria Plzeň's expected goals per match of 3.2 seem impressive, the reality of their meager points tally indicates a failure to convert opportunities into tangible results. Moreover, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.4, their defence has shown vulnerability, which the Hungarian side's attackers will be keen to exploit.

The head-to-head record between these teams since 2023 is limited and shows an even spread with each team claiming a win and a draw. However, this small sample size should not overshadow the current form and statistical indicators that favor the home side. The model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 aligns with the competitive nature of their recent encounters, but the current data suggests a 2-1 victory for Ferencváros is more plausible.

With a 59% win probability, there's clear value in backing the hosts at 1.909 odds with LeoVegas, representing a 12% edge. As for the goals market, the 58% probability for over 2.5 suggests a slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair, assuming both teams continue their scoring trends.

Ferencváros

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #16xP/match #9Points #1

Key players

Lenny JosephFxG 0.79 · xT 0.09
Carlos Eduardo Lopes CruzLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20
Kristoffer ZachariassenRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.10

Viktoria Plzeň

Form WDDWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #27xT #4xP/match #11Points #19

Key players

Merchas DoskiLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
Prince Kwabena AduLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
Rafiu DurosinmiFxG 0.25 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Ferencváros – Viktoria Plzeň

Predicted score matrix

Viktoria Plzeň →

Ferencváros →

0–05.1%

0–15.2%

0–23.2%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–08.8%

1–110.7%

1–26.0%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.6%

2–19.8%

2–25.6%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.8%

3–05.4%

3–16.2%

3–23.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.9%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.6%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-09%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,89–1,15

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.25

Over 2,558%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ferencváros to win59%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ferencváros to win59%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Kristoffer Zachariassen to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Kristoffer Zachariassen to score29%
Patrik Hrošovský to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Ferencváros59% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
1 · Ferencváros59% probability@1.95NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
1 · Ferencváros59% probability@1.92LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ferencváros	X	2 · Viktoria Plzeň
Betsafe	EV+ 15% 1.95	3.65	3.75
LeoVegas	EV+ 13% 1.92	3.55	3.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 15% 1.95	3.65	3.75

Odds updated 8 Oct, 08:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

50 %45 %

1.91 → 1.92

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.55

20 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.35

Over 2,50 %

59 %54 %

1.60 → 1.60

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 07/10/2026 → 07/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Ferencváros 1Draw 1Viktoria Plzeň 1

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Europa League data since 2023.

Key facts

Ferencvarosi TC come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Ferencvarosi TC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ferencváros

Viktoria Plzeň

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ferencváros (19–6)

Viktoria Plzeň (5–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ferencváros

Viktoria Plzeň

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ferencváros

Viktoria Plzeň

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ferencváros	Viktoria Plzeň
Points	23	3
xPoints	16.5	3.6
xG per match	1.8	3.2
xGA per match	1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.56

Playing style	Ferencváros	Viktoria Plzeň
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.46	0.68
xT per match	1.3	2
xTA per match	0.99	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	23	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	20
Entries into the box against	12	9
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.69
Passes per match	327	373
Passes against per match	385	352
Switches of play per match	25	26.4
Long balls per match	32	38

Set pieces	Ferencváros	Viktoria Plzeň
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.1
Corners per match	5	5.5
Corners against per match	6.1	1.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.69
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.5

Other	Ferencváros	Viktoria Plzeň
Throw-in control	0.71	0.67

The goalkeepers	Denes Dibusz (Ferencváros)	Florian Wiegele (Viktoria Plzeň)
Saves	22	11
Save %	85%	73%
xG prevented	52%	64%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ferencváros

Fixtures, form & tips

Viktoria Plzeň

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ferencváros vs Viktoria Plzeň according to our model?

The model gives Ferencváros a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ferencváros 59%, draw 22%, Viktoria Plzeň 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.