01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bournemouth to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Europa League13°0,2 mm13 km/h
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BournemouthPossession controlvs
Sturm GrazLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Bournemouth (63%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sturm Graz @ 17.00 (+164 %)
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz · Europa League
1 · Bournemouth 63%X 21%16% Sturm Graz · 2
63%
21%
16%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Bournemouth's possession-heavy approach is likely to shape their offensive dynamics as the host side in this Europa League clash against Sturm Graz. With Bournemouth's strong 63% win probability, the numbers suggest they hold the upper hand in this matchup. Yet, the xPoints tell a different story, slightly favoring the visitors, highlighting a potential vulnerability in Bournemouth's seeming superiority.
Despite the possession control from the hosts, Bournemouth's xG of 0.84 per match is not significantly higher than Sturm Graz's 0.81. This closeness in expected goals indicates that neither side has been prolific in front of goal. Additionally, looking at the xGA figures, Bournemouth appears defensively sound, boasting an xGA of 1.2 compared to Graz's worrying 2.0. This discrepancy suggests Bournemouth may find more joy attacking than their Austrian counterparts.
The most likely scorelines—1-0, 1-1, and 2-0—all at 11% probability, reinforce the expectation of a tight contest. The model's lean towards Bournemouth isn't overwhelming, given the 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a balanced 51% for both teams to score.
For bettors, there's intriguing value in backing the draw at odds of 6.75 with LeoVegas, reflecting a 42% edge. Similarly, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.8 odds offers a 33% edge, appealing given the xG and playing styles. While Bournemouth is favored, the true value might lie in these alternatives, given the tight game expected.
BournemouthForm W
League ranking xG #44xGA #18xT #34xP/match #32Points #22
Key players
- Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
- EvanilsonFxG 0.24 · xT 0.06
- Alex ScottCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
- Numbers from Premier League 2026
Sturm GrazForm LLLWD
League ranking xG #45xGA #43xT #52xP/match #31Points #35
Key players
- Tomi HorvatRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.10
- Otar KiteishviliCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
- Tochi ChukwuaniCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
Predicted score matrix
Sturm Graz →
Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–15.3%
0–22.6%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.3%
1–110.9%
1–24.8%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.8%
2–19.9%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.8%
3–16.2%
3–22.8%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–14.4%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-011%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,87–0,91
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.95EV+40%
Over 2,553%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bournemouth to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Ryan Christie to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Ryan Christie to score31%
- Jon Gorenc Stankovič to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sturm Graz16% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+164%reference odds
- 2 · Sturm Graz16% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+164%reference odds
- 2 · Sturm Graz16% probability@11.00LeoVegasEV+71%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bournemouth | X | 2 · Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.22 | EV+ 22% 5.80 | EV+ 164% 17.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.17 | EV+ 42% 6.75 | EV+ 71% 11.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.22 | EV+ 22% 5.80 | EV+ 164% 17.00 |
Odds updated 8 Oct, 06:37
Odds movement
1+1 %
81 %76 %
1.21 → 1.22
X-6 %
18 %13 %
6.20 → 5.80
2+17 %
9 %4 %
14.50 → 17.00
Over 2,5+1 %
71 %66 %
1.39 → 1.40
Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 07/10/2026 → 08/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sturm Graz
Bournemouth (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bournemouth
Sturm Graz
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bournemouth
Sturm Graz
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bournemouth | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 0.84 | 0.81 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.47 |
| Playing style | Bournemouth | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 0.48 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 37 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.16 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 7 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| Passes per match | 296 | 191 |
| Passes against per match | 510 | 388 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.3 | 10.6 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 18 |
| Set pieces | Bournemouth | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 10.1 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.2 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.25 |
| Other | Bournemouth | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth) | Daniil Khudyakov (Sturm Graz) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Save % | 80% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 90% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz according to our model?
The model gives Bournemouth a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bournemouth 63%, draw 21%, Sturm Graz 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.