01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Olympiacos to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Europa League18°0,3 mm15 km/h
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MarseilleBalanced & physicalvs
OlympiacosPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Olympiacos (46%)
Marseille vs Olympiacos · Europa League
1 · Marseille 32%X 22%46% Olympiacos · 2
32%
22%
46%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Marseille – Olympiacos
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The odds of 2.10 with Bet365 are not supported by the provided facts and appear fabricated. Here is the corrected text:
The crux of this Marseille vs Olympiacos Europa League clash is the stark contrast in their expected goals statistics. Olympiacos comes into this match with a staggering xG of 3.3 per game, which dwarfs Marseille's modest 0.93. This not only highlights the Greek side's attacking prowess but also underscores the defensive challenges facing the French hosts.
Despite playing at home, Marseille's xGA of 1.8 paints a dire picture against a team as clinical as Olympiacos, who boast an xGA of just 0.37. These numbers suggest that the visitors are not only more likely to score but also far more adept at preventing goals. The model probabilities reflect this imbalance, giving Olympiacos a 46% chance of victory compared to Marseille's 32%.
The most probable scoreline according to the model is a 1-1 draw, but the data leans slightly towards a 1-2 or even a 0-1 victory for the visitors. Olympiacos's penchant for possession and high press may prove taxing for Marseille's balanced and physical approach, potentially exploiting their defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams to score sits at 58%, aligning with the idea that Marseille might find the net once.
The over 2.5 goals market at 54% reflects a moderate expectation for scoring, influenced heavily by Olympiacos's offensive capabilities. While the weather might play a role in goal suppression, it's already factored into the model's expectations.
Given the numbers and current form, backing the visitors to take all three points seems a well-reasoned choice.
MarseilleForm L
League ranking xG #42xGA #41xT #54xP/match #40Points #44
Key players
- Amine Ferid GouiriFxG 0.45 · xT 0.18
- Pierre Emile HojbjergCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.13
- Emerson Palmieri dos SantosLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.21
- Numbers from Ligue 1 2026
OlympiacosForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #29xP/match #2Points #20
Key players
- Konstantinos FortounisFxG 0.12 · xT 0.59
- Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.79 · xT 0.01
- Gustavo Adolfo Puerta MolanoCDMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
- Numbers from Greece Super League 2026
Match prediction: Marseille – Olympiacos
Predicted score matrix
Olympiacos →
Marseille →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.2%
0–18.6%
0–26.9%
0–33.6%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–07.2%
1–112.0%
1–29.0%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.5%
2
2–04.9%
2–17.6%
2–25.9%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.3%
3–22.5%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,30–1,54
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.18
Over 2,554%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Olympiacos to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- João Pedro Ferreira Silva to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Amine Ferid Gouiri to score30%
- Santiago Hezze to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Olympiacos46% probability@3.14PinnacleEV+46%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Marseille | X | 2 · Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.60 | EV+ 46% 3.14 |
Odds updated 8 Oct, 07:04
Odds movement
10 %
46 %41 %
2.18 → 2.18
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.60 → 3.60
20 %
33 %28 %
3.15 → 3.14
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.68 → 1.68
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 07/10/2026 → 08/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Marseille (1–4)
Olympiacos (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Marseille
Olympiacos
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Marseille
Olympiacos
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Marseille | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1 | 2.6 |
| xG per match | 0.93 | 3.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.37 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 1.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | Marseille | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.79 |
| xT per match | 0.46 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 0.09 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 42 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.16 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 3 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 383 | 409 |
| Passes against per match | 484 | 288 |
| Switches of play per match | 10.7 | 32.8 |
| Long balls per match | 18 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Marseille | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2.9 | 13.3 |
| Corners against per match | 2.9 | 0 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.1 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.33 | 0 |
| Other | Marseille | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Jeffrey de Lange (Marseille) | Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Save % | 43% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 29% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Marseille vs Olympiacos according to our model?
The model gives Olympiacos a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Marseille 32%, draw 22%, Olympiacos 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.