01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Besiktas JK to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Europa League18°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
Besiktas JKPossession & high press2–2
Crystal PalaceBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Besiktas JK (62%)
Besiktas JK vs Crystal Palace · Europa League
1 · Besiktas JK 62%X 21%17% Crystal Palace · 2
62%
21%
17%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Besiktas JK vs Crystal Palace (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Besiktas JK win 62%, draw 21%, Crystal Palace win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Besiktas JK 1.91, Crystal Palace 0.94. Most likely score: 1-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Besiktas JK or draw 83%, Crystal Palace or draw 38%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.
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Analysis: Besiktas JK – Crystal Palace
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Beşiktaş have yet to face Crystal Palace in a competitive match, so the head-to-head record offers no clues. Instead, the focus shifts to their current form and playing styles. The Turkish side has established itself as a possession-oriented team with a high press, sitting comfortably on 21 points, compared to the visitors' meager 3. The disparity in xPoints—16.0 for Beşiktaş and just 2.5 for the Eagles—underscores the hosts' dominance in the early stages of the competition.
The model leans heavily towards a Beşiktaş victory, giving them a 62% chance of taking all three points. The most likely scorelines of 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0 suggest a game where the home side's defensive strength could be pivotal. The hosts are allowing an average of just 0.74 xGA per match, a stark contrast to Palace's concerning 2.0 xGA. This difference accentuates the defensive gaps in the English side’s setup, which Beşiktaş will be keen to exploit.
Despite their balanced and physical approach, Crystal Palace has struggled to translate it into points or xG, with a meager 0.94 expected goals against Beşiktaş's robust 1.91. While the over 2.5 goals is slightly favored at 54%, the model's expectation of a tight Beşiktaş win aligns with these probabilities, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring affair.
For punters seeking value, the home win at odds of 2.12 with Betsafe and Nordicbet and 2.1 with LeoVegas is compelling. With the model assigning a 62% chance for a Beşiktaş victory, the 31% and 30% edge respectively is significant. In a match where the Turkish side is poised to impose its superior metrics and style, backing them offers a calculated edge.
Besiktas JKForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #8xP/match #7Points #2
Key players
- Emirhan TopcuCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
- Orkun KökçüCAMxG 0.56 · xT 0.15
- Tiago Emanuel Embaló DjalóCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Crystal PalaceForm WL
League ranking xG #8xGA #41xT #5xP/match #27Points #30
Key players
- Adam WhartonCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
- Daichi KamadaCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
- Yeremy PinoLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.19
- Numbers from Premier League 2026
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Besiktas JK 62% · Draw 21% · Crystal Palace 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,04fair 5,97-16 %
MissMatchresultat - Crystal PalaceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,63fair 24,37-73 %
MissMatch prediction: Besiktas JK – Crystal Palace
Predicted score matrix
Crystal Palace →
Besiktas JK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–15.1%
0–22.6%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.8%
1–110.7%
1–24.9%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.6%
2–19.9%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.7%
3–16.3%
3–23.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–04.9%
4+–14.6%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-011%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,91–0,94
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.60EV+19%
Over 2,554%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Besiktas JK to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Junior Olaïtan Ishola to score30%
- Jaydee Canvot to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Besiktas JK62% probability@2.27PinnacleEV+40%reference odds
- 1 · Besiktas JK62% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+39%reference odds
- 1 · Besiktas JK62% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Besiktas JK | X | 2 · Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 37% 2.22 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 39% 2.25 | 3.65 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 37% 2.22 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 40% 2.27 | 3.74 | 3.03 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+11 %
47 %42 %
2.05 → 2.27
X-4 %
27 %22 %
3.88 → 3.74
2-6 %
33 %28 %
3.21 → 3.03
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Besiktas JK
Crystal Palace
Besiktas JK (15–4)
Crystal Palace (6–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Besiktas JK
Crystal Palace
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Besiktas JK
Crystal Palace
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Besiktas JK | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 3 |
| xPoints | 16 | 2.5 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.74 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.92 |
| Playing style | Besiktas JK | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.62 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 511 | 457 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 422 |
| Switches of play per match | 40.1 | 30.8 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Besiktas JK | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.89 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| Other | Besiktas JK | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Alexander Nübel (Besiktas JK) | Walter Benítez (Crystal Palace) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 7 |
| Save % | 83% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 79% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Juventus – Rennes22 October 2026
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar22 October 2026
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland22 October 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb – NEC22 October 2026
- Hoffenheim – Lyon22 October 2026
- Jagiellonia Białystok – Anderlecht22 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva22 October 2026
- Celtic – Celta Vigo22 October 2026
- Ferencváros – Torreense22 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Besiktas JK vs Crystal Palace according to our model?
The model gives Besiktas JK a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Besiktas JK 62%, draw 21%, Crystal Palace 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Besiktas JK vs Crystal Palace?
The model expects 1.91 goals (xG) for Besiktas JK and 0.94 for Crystal Palace, 2.85 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Besiktas JK or draw (1X) 83%, Crystal Palace or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.