Ferencváros vs Torreense Prediction: Home win 71% (22 Oct 2026)

Europa League22 October 202613°10,6 mm29 km/h

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FerencvárosLow block & direct

TorreenseLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Ferencváros (71%)Best value by the model: 2 · Torreense @ 10.00 (+17 %)

1 · Ferencváros 71%X 18%12% Torreense · 2

71%

18%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ferencváros vs Torreense (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Ferencváros win 71%, draw 18%, Torreense win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Ferencváros 2.12, Torreense 0.89. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Ferencváros or draw 88%, Torreense or draw 29%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Ferencváros – Torreense

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Ferencváros boast a formidable 71% probability of victory, underscored by their 4-match winning streak and consistent scoring across 10 games. The hosts' xG of 1.8 per match dwarfs Torreense's 0.78, indicating a likely offensive edge. In contrast, Torreense, with only 3 points and an xPoints tally of 1.4, are languishing, suggesting that their defensive frailties might be brutally exposed here.

The likely scorelines favor a 2-0 or 1-0 outcome for the hosts, reflecting the calculated xG advantage of 2.12 to 0.89. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 58%, although the expected rain could temper scoring, as noted in the model's 1% edge on the under at 2.39 odds with Betsafe. Despite both teams favoring a low defence and direct style, Ferencváros' superior execution is likely to prevail, with Torreense's leaky defense conceding an average of 2.4 goals per match.

While Ferencváros are the clear favorites, the visitors offer a 10% edge at odds of 9.4 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. It's a tempting long shot but aligns poorly with the balance of probabilities. Thus, a straightforward 2-0 result for Ferencváros feels right, with a cautious lean towards the under considering the weather's potential impact.

Ferencváros

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #19xGA #16xT #14xP/match #12Points #1

Key players

Lenny JosephFxG 0.79 · xT 0.11
Toon RaemaekersCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
Carlos Eduardo Lopes CruzLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.22

Torreense

Form WL

League ranking xG #46xGA #48xT #37xP/match #49Points #31

Key players

Ianique dos Santos TavaresCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
Alejandro Alfaro CascalesCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Volnei FeltesCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Numbers from Portugal Segunda Liga 2026

Match prediction: Ferencváros – Torreense

Predicted score matrix

Torreense →

Ferencváros →

0–05.2%

0–14.1%

0–22.0%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.2%

1–19.6%

1–24.1%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.8%

3–17.0%

3–23.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–06.8%

4+–16.0%

4+–22.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.1-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,12–0,89

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.35

Over 2,558%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ferencváros to win71%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ferencváros to win71%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Kristoffer Zachariassen to score43%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Kristoffer Zachariassen to score43%
Alejandro Alfaro Cascales to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Torreense12% probability@10.00PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
2 · Torreense12% probability@9.80BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
2 · Torreense12% probability@9.80NordicbetEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ferencváros	X	2 · Torreense
Betsafe	1.31	5.30	EV+ 14% 9.80
LeoVegas	1.31	5.25	8.00
Nordicbet	1.31	5.30	EV+ 14% 9.80
Pinnacle	1.31	5.59	EV+ 17% 10.00

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Ferencváros win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.35 to 1.31 (−3%).

1-3 %

74 %69 %

1.35 → 1.31

X+9 %

20 %15 %

5.12 → 5.59

2+28 %

13 %8 %

7.83 → 10.00

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Ferencvarosi TC come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Ferencvarosi TC have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ferencváros

Torreense

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ferencváros (21–7)

Torreense (3–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ferencváros

Torreense

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ferencváros

Torreense

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ferencváros	Torreense
Points	26	3
xPoints	17.6	1.4
xG per match	1.8	0.78
xGA per match	1.2	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.29

Playing style	Ferencváros	Torreense
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.21
xT per match	1.3	0.86
xTA per match	0.96	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	23	16
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.21
Entries into the box per match	11	6
Entries into the box against	12	21
Pass completion %	0.77	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.66
Passes per match	331	216
Passes against per match	376	439
Switches of play per match	24.7	30.1
Long balls per match	31	39

Set pieces	Ferencváros	Torreense
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	5.2	2
Corners against per match	5.7	10
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.68

Other	Ferencváros	Torreense
Throw-in control	0.72	0.64

The goalkeepers	Denes Dibusz (Ferencváros)	Mohamed Ali Diadie (Torreense)
Saves	22	6
Save %	85%	100%
xG prevented	52%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ferencváros

Fixtures, form & tips

Torreense

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ferencváros vs Torreense according to our model?

The model gives Ferencváros a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ferencváros 71%, draw 18%, Torreense 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Ferencváros vs Torreense?

The model expects 2.12 goals (xG) for Ferencváros and 0.89 for Torreense, 3.01 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Ferencváros or draw (1X) 88%, Torreense or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 82%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.