Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Prediction: Home win 60% (22 Oct 2026)

Europa League22 October 202610°4,5 mm28 km/h

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Union Saint-GilloiseBalanced & physical

Hapoel Be'er ShevaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Union Saint-Gilloise (60%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva @ 8.55 (+55 %)

1 · Union Saint-Gilloise 60%X 22%18% Hapoel Be'er Sheva · 2

60%

22%

18%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Union Saint-Gilloise win 60%, draw 22%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Union Saint-Gilloise 2.15, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1.04. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Union Saint-Gilloise or draw 82%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw 40%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A compelling 18% win probability for Hapoel Beer Sheva contrasts with the 8.0 odds from LeoVegas, presenting a 45% edge. This discrepancy hints at an underestimated potential for an upset, despite the clear model preference for Union Saint-Gilloise. The matchup leans towards a 2-1 home victory, backed by a solid 60% win probability for the hosts and a model expectation of over 2.15 goals generated by them. The expected goals data favors Gilloise heavily, 2.2 to just 0.83 for the visitors, further emphasized by their superior xGA of 0.74 compared to Sheva’s 1.3.

The inclement weather, with 8.9 mm of rain forecast, might suppress attacking fluidity, yet the model's numbers already consider this. Despite these conditions, a total over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, with a 58% likelihood of both teams finding the net. This suggests a moderately lively encounter, where quality chances should arise, especially in favor of the hosts.

Despite these indicators, the real value lies elsewhere. The draw option offers a 21% edge at 5.5 odds on LeoVegas. While Union Saint-Gilloise is favored, betting value tilts towards a surprise outcome, whether through a draw or a rare away win.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Form LLWWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #21xP/match #2Points #17

Key players

Kevin Mac AllisterCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.10
Kamiel Van de PerreCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Adem ZorganeCDMxG 0.26 · xT 0.42
Numbers from Belgium First Division 2026

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Form DL

League ranking xG #44xGA #20xT #53xP/match #32Points #32

Key players

Guy MizrahiRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.22
Itay RotmanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
Idan NachmiasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Numbers from Israeli Premier League 2026

Match prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Predicted score matrix

Hapoel Be'er Sheva →

Union Saint-Gilloise →

0–04.4%

0–14.0%

0–22.2%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–08.5%

1–19.5%

1–24.8%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.5%

2–19.9%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.8%

3–17.1%

3–23.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.0%

4+–16.3%

4+–23.3%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,15–1,04

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.50

Over 2,562%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Union Saint-Gilloise to win60%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Union Saint-Gilloise to win60%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Mateo Biondic to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Mateo Biondic to score36%
Niv Yehoshua to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva18% probability@8.55PinnacleEV+55%reference odds
2 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva18% probability@7.50LeoVegasEV+36%reference odds
X · Draw22% probability@5.50PinnacleEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Union Saint-Gilloise	X	2 · Hapoel Be'er Sheva
LeoVegas	1.33	EV+ 19% 5.40	EV+ 36% 7.50
Pinnacle	1.34	EV+ 21% 5.50	EV+ 55% 8.55

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:09

Odds movement

1+3 %

74 %69 %

1.30 → 1.34

X-4 %

20 %15 %

5.71 → 5.50

2+1 %

14 %9 %

8.46 → 8.55

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Union Saint-Gilloise

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Union Saint-Gilloise (4–1)

Hapoel Be'er Sheva (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Union Saint-Gilloise

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

The teams in numbers

Performance	Union Saint-Gilloise	Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Points	4	1
xPoints	4.6	2.3
xG per match	2.2	0.83
xGA per match	0.74	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.68	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.4

Playing style	Union Saint-Gilloise	Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.54
xT per match	1.1	0.53
xTA per match	0.82	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	39	24
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.73
Passes per match	407	458
Passes against per match	431	385
Switches of play per match	22.6	19.9
Long balls per match	24	15

Set pieces	Union Saint-Gilloise	Hapoel Be'er Sheva
xG from free kicks	0.41	0
Corners per match	2.6	3.5
Corners against per match	3.6	3.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.86	0.29

Other	Union Saint-Gilloise	Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Throw-in control	0.68	0.79

The goalkeepers	Hervé Kouakou Koffi (Union Saint-Gilloise)	Ofir Marciano (Hapoel Be'er Sheva)
Saves	4	6
Save %	80%	75%
xG prevented	70%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Union Saint-Gilloise

Fixtures, form & tips

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva according to our model?

The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Union Saint-Gilloise 60%, draw 22%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva?

The model expects 2.15 goals (xG) for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.04 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, 3.19 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Union Saint-Gilloise or draw (1X) 82%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw (X2) 40% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.