Hoffenheim vs Lyon Prediction: Home win 43% (22 Oct 2026)

Europa League22 October 202610°0,1 mm18 km/h

Läs på svenska

HoffenheimPossession & high press

LyonPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hoffenheim (43%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 23.00 (+40 %)

1 · Hoffenheim 43%X 24%33% Lyon · 2

43%

24%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hoffenheim vs Lyon (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Hoffenheim win 43%, draw 24%, Lyon win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Hoffenheim 1.54, Lyon 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Hoffenheim or draw 67%, Lyon or draw 57%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Hoffenheim – Lyon

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The model gives Hoffenheim a 43% chance to win against Lyon, with the hosts having a slight edge in expected goals at 1.54 to Lyon's 1.32. However, Lyon holds an advantage in both xPoints and xG per match, suggesting they have been more effective in converting their gameplay into results. The predicted most likely score is a 1-1 draw, cited at 12%, followed by a narrow 2-1 win for Hoffenheim or a 1-0 victory, each sitting at 9%.

Despite Hoffenheim's possession and high press style, Lyon's control-oriented approach might help them manage the game's tempo, potentially offsetting the home advantage. The single head-to-head match since 2023 doesn't weigh heavily, given its small sample size. But Lyon's position in points and xG metrics suggests they could capitalize on any lapses from the hosts.

While the market leans slightly towards over 2.5 goals at 54%, bettors might find better value in less conventional outcomes. The under 0.5 goals market offers significant value with a 28% edge at odds of 21.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. For a more conservative approach, the under 1.5 goals at odds of 5.49 with Betsafe still presents a 20% edge, offering a potential play against the grain of expectations.

Hoffenheim

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #25xGA #35xT #1xP/match #42Points #53

Key players

Ozan KabakCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.12
Bambasé ContéRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.17
Leon AvdullahuCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Numbers from Bundesliga 2026

Lyon

Form WDLWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #34xT #23xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Corentin TolissoCAMxG 0.67 · xT 0.11
Martín Adrián Satriano CostaFxG 0.56 · xT 0.03
Ainsley Maitland NilesRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Hoffenheim – Lyon

Predicted score matrix

Lyon →

Hoffenheim →

0–06.1%

0–17.2%

0–25.0%

0–32.2%

0–4+1.0%

1–08.5%

1–112.0%

1–27.7%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.8%

2–19.0%

2–25.9%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.5%

3–14.6%

3–23.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,54–1,32

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.65EV+21%

Over 2,554%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Tim Lemperle to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Tim Lemperle to score30%
Tyler Scott Morton to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.56% probability@23.00BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
Under 0.56% probability@23.00NordicbetEV+40%reference odds
Under 2.546% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+21%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hoffenheim	X	2 · Lyon
Betsafe	2.00	3.90	EV+ 11% 3.40
LeoVegas	2.00	3.80	EV+ 5% 3.20
Nordicbet	2.00	3.90	EV+ 11% 3.40
Pinnacle	2.02	4.05	EV+ 10% 3.35

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

51 %46 %

2.04 → 2.02

X+1 %

26 %21 %

4.00 → 4.05

20 %

31 %26 %

3.35 → 3.35

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Hoffenheim 0Draw 1Lyon 0

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Europa League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hoffenheim

Lyon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hoffenheim (2–5)

Lyon (5–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hoffenheim

Lyon

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hoffenheim

Lyon

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hoffenheim	Lyon
Points	0	6
xPoints	1.7	3.6
xG per match	1.4	2.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.35

Playing style	Hoffenheim	Lyon
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.7	0.38
xT per match	2.1	1.1
xTA per match	0.96	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	41	17
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.16
Entries into the box per match	21	10
Entries into the box against	13	17
Pass completion %	0.77	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.74
Passes per match	435	359
Passes against per match	262	422
Switches of play per match	20.3	27.2
Long balls per match	34	27

Set pieces	Hoffenheim	Lyon
xG from free kicks	0	0.17
Corners per match	7.6	4.5
Corners against per match	4.6	4.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.44

Other	Hoffenheim	Lyon
Throw-in control	0.81	0.71

The goalkeepers	Oliver Baumann (Hoffenheim)	Ruben Kluivert (Lyon)
Saves	3	3
Save %	38%	100%
xG prevented	9%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hoffenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Lyon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hoffenheim vs Lyon according to our model?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hoffenheim 43%, draw 24%, Lyon 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Hoffenheim vs Lyon?

The model expects 1.54 goals (xG) for Hoffenheim and 1.32 for Lyon, 2.86 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Hoffenheim or draw (1X) 67%, Lyon or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.