01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Dinamo Zagreb to win65%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Europa League13°8,4 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
Dinamo ZagrebLow block & directvs
NECBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Dinamo Zagreb (65%)
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC · Europa League
1 · Dinamo Zagreb 65%X 19%16% NEC · 2
65%
19%
16%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Dinamo Zagreb win 65%, draw 19%, NEC win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Dinamo Zagreb 2.19, NEC 1.08. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Dinamo Zagreb or draw 84%, NEC or draw 35%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.
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Analysis: Dinamo Zagreb – NEC
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record between GNK Dinamo Zagreb and NEC offers little historical insight, as the sample size is too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. Instead, one must focus on the present dynamics. Dinamo is in a stronger position in terms of points, boasting four to NEC's one, and their model probability of winning stands prominently at 65%. The hosts' direct and low-defense playing style contrasts with NEC's balanced and physical approach, suggesting an intriguing tactical clash.
NEC has shown a slight edge in expected goals per match, with a tally of 1.1 compared to Dinamo's 1.0, while Dinamo is more efficient defensively with an xGA of 1.1 against NEC's 2.1. This defensive stability, coupled with their home advantage, points towards a likely victory. The expected goals statistics of 2.19 for Dinamo indicates their attacking potential, especially against NEC's more porous defense, which is evident in the xGA figures.
With a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, the weather with its rain influence has already been accounted for in these projections. While the most probable scoreline of 2-1 does suggest goals from both sides, Dinamo's defensive strength and NEC's vulnerability might suppress NEC's scoring opportunities, favoring a 2-0 outcome.
The betting angle sharpens with the value found in backing Dinamo at odds of 1.65 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 1.64 with LeoVegas. The model finds a 7% edge at 1.65, and a 6% edge at 1.64, making this an attractive proposition for bettors seeking an edge. This analysis leans towards a controlled Dinamo victory, possibly 2-0, with the over 2.5 goals still a viable consideration given the hosts' attacking projection.
Dinamo ZagrebForm LLDDW
League ranking xG #40xGA #14xT #48xP/match #18Points #19
Key players
- Dion Drena BeljoFxG 0.78 · xT 0.02
- Mounsef BakrarFxG 0.27 · xT -0.01
- Moris ValinčićRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
NECForm LD
League ranking xG #36xGA #45xT #17xP/match #44Points #33
Key players
- Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
- Tjaronn CheryRWxG 0.62 · xT 0.16
- Darko NejašmićCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
- Numbers from Eredivisie 2026
Match prediction: Dinamo Zagreb – NEC
Predicted score matrix
NEC →
Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–13.8%
0–22.2%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.0%
1–19.2%
1–24.9%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.1%
2–19.8%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.7%
3–17.2%
3–23.9%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–06.1%
4+–16.6%
4+–23.6%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,19–1,08
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,536%
@2.50
Over 2,564%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Dinamo Zagreb to win65%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Dion Drena Beljo to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Dion Drena Beljo to score32%
- Isak Hansen-Aarøen to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Dinamo Zagreb65% probability@1.58PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Dinamo Zagreb65% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- 1 · Dinamo Zagreb65% probability@1.55NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dinamo Zagreb | X | 2 · NEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.45 |
| LeoVegas | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.58 | 4.54 | 5.33 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Dinamo Zagreb win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.63 to 1.58 (−3%).
1-3 %
62 %57 %
1.63 → 1.58
X+6 %
24 %19 %
4.27 → 4.54
2+13 %
22 %17 %
4.70 → 5.33
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dinamo Zagreb
NEC
Dinamo Zagreb (1–0)
NEC (1–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dinamo Zagreb
NEC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dinamo Zagreb
NEC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dinamo Zagreb | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 1 |
| xPoints | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | Dinamo Zagreb | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.71 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 15 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.2 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 5 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 342 | 425 |
| Passes against per match | 556 | 400 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.3 | 21.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Dinamo Zagreb | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 0.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0 |
| Other | Dinamo Zagreb | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Dominik Kotarski (Dinamo Zagreb) | Nikolas Polster (NEC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 29% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 11% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Celtic – Celta Vigo22 October 2026
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC according to our model?
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dinamo Zagreb 65%, draw 19%, NEC 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC?
The model expects 2.19 goals (xG) for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.08 for NEC, 3.28 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Dinamo Zagreb or draw (1X) 84%, NEC or draw (X2) 35% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.