Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Away win 41% (22 Oct 2026)

Europa League22 October 202610°17,5 mm20 km/h

Läs på svenska

LillestrømPossession & high press

Real SociedadPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Real Sociedad (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · Lillestrøm @ 7.00 (+133 %)

1 · Lillestrøm 33%X 26%41% Real Sociedad · 2

33%

26%

41%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Lillestrøm win 33%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Lillestrøm 1.31, Real Sociedad 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Lillestrøm or draw 59%, Real Sociedad or draw 67%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Lillestrøm's odds of 5.95 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a striking 98% edge, with a 33% model probability backing them for this Europa League fixture. The home side’s xG superiority at 1.6 compared to Real Sociedad's 0.83 suggests a more potent attacking threat, especially when combined with their high press strategy. However, the visitors' ability to control possession and score consistently in 14 straight league outings makes this clash intriguing.

Rain could dampen the scoring, but the model still leans towards over 2.5 goals at 56%. The most likely outcomes are tightly contested, with 1-1 at 12% and a narrow 1-2 Sociedad win at 9%. Lillestrøm, with an xPoints edge of 2.3 to 2.0, might just have enough in them to disrupt the Spanish side’s rhythm, but Sociedad's slightly better xGA of 1.3 compared to Lillestrøm's 1.4 hints at a defensively robust approach.

Despite Sociedad's edge in possession control, the model and betting odds reveal significant value in backing the hosts. Lillestrøm at odds of 5.95 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a compelling case for an upset, offering a substantial return on a calculated risk given the numbers at play.

Lillestrøm

Form LD

League ranking xG #22xGA #23xT #13xP/match #30Points #38

Key players

Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Sander Moen FossCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Lars RangerRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Numbers from Eliteserien 2026

Real Sociedad

Form WDLLD

League ranking xG #43xGA #19xT #42xP/match #38Points #39

Key players

Mamadou SarrCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Carlos SolerCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.08
Jon MartinCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Numbers from La Liga 2026

Match prediction: Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad

Predicted score matrix

Real Sociedad →

Lillestrøm →

0–05.7%

0–18.3%

0–27.0%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.7%

1–111.7%

1–29.2%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.6%

2–17.4%

2–26.0%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.0%

3–13.3%

3–22.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,31–1,62

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.39EV+5%

Over 2,556%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Real Sociedad or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Real Sociedad or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Mikel Oyarzabal Ugarte to score22%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lillestrøm33% probability@7.00BetsafeEV+133%reference odds
1 · Lillestrøm33% probability@7.00NordicbetEV+133%reference odds
1 · Lillestrøm33% probability@6.19PinnacleEV+106%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lillestrøm	X	2 · Real Sociedad
Betsafe	EV+ 133% 7.00	EV+ 18% 4.60	1.45
LeoVegas	EV+ 100% 6.00	EV+ 18% 4.60	1.44
Nordicbet	EV+ 133% 7.00	EV+ 18% 4.60	1.45
Pinnacle	EV+ 106% 6.19	EV+ 29% 5.02	1.46

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Real Sociedad win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.52 to 1.46 (−4%).

1+16 %

19 %14 %

5.34 → 6.19

X+9 %

22 %17 %

4.62 → 5.02

2-4 %

66 %61 %

1.52 → 1.46

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Real Sociedad have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lillestrøm

Real Sociedad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lillestrøm (2–3)

Real Sociedad (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lillestrøm

Real Sociedad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lillestrøm

Real Sociedad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lillestrøm	Real Sociedad
Points	1	1
xPoints	2.3	2
xG per match	1.6	0.83
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.13

Playing style	Lillestrøm	Real Sociedad
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.62	0.57
xT per match	1.3	0.8
xTA per match	0.94	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	19	21
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.36
Entries into the box per match	13	11
Entries into the box against	8	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.73
Passes per match	410	489
Passes against per match	285	321
Switches of play per match	26.7	24.5
Long balls per match	29	22

Set pieces	Lillestrøm	Real Sociedad
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	6.1	6.1
Corners against per match	4	3.6
xG per corner	0.08	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.86

Other	Lillestrøm	Real Sociedad
Throw-in control	0.69	0.72

The goalkeepers	Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm)	Unai Marrero Larrañaga (Real Sociedad)
Saves	7	5
Save %	70%	63%
xG prevented	66%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lillestrøm

Fixtures, form & tips

Real Sociedad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad according to our model?

The model gives Real Sociedad a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lillestrøm 33%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 1.31 goals (xG) for Lillestrøm and 1.62 for Real Sociedad, 2.93 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lillestrøm or draw (1X) 59%, Real Sociedad or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.