Lech Poznań vs Sunderland Prediction: Home win 57% (22 Oct 2026)

Europa League22 October 202611°9,8 mm15 km/h

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Lech PoznańPossession control

SunderlandPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Lech Poznań (57%)

1 · Lech Poznań 57%X 24%19% Sunderland · 2

57%

24%

19%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lech Poznań vs Sunderland (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Lech Poznań win 57%, draw 24%, Sunderland win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Lech Poznań 1.77, Sunderland 1.08. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Lech Poznań or draw 81%, Sunderland or draw 43%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lech Poznań – Sunderland

Erik Lindberg · 20 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A stark contrast emerges in the betting odds for Lech Poznań against Sunderland. The model gives the hosts a hefty 57% chance of winning, yet bookmakers like Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds as high as 4.9, suggesting a massive 179% value edge. This discrepancy demands attention for those with a penchant for value betting.

The numbers portray a tight contest. Despite Sunderland's slight edge in points, obtaining six to Poznań's four, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Poznań's xPoints of 4.8 surpass Sunderland's, hinting at some underperformance in the hosts’ recent outings. Yet, Sunderland's defensive stoutness is undeniable, conceding just 0.73 xGA per match compared to Poznań's leaky 2.4.

The expected goals numbers tilt the scale towards Poznań offensively, with an xG of 1.77. Sunderland, however, boasts a more potent attack with an xG per match of 2.5. Yet, it's the defensive metrics that could prove decisive, especially considering the expected rain which typically dampens goal production. Both teams favor possession control, likely creating a midfield battle that may stifle clear-cut chances.

With a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, the model leans slightly towards a more open game, but rain could suppress scoring. The most probable outcomes, a 1-1 or a slender 1-0 victory for Poznań, reinforce the notion of a closely contested affair. A draw or a low-scoring win for either side seems plausible.

The standout angle here is undoubtedly the value on a Poznań win. With odds at 4.9 from Betsafe and Nordicbet, this market offers substantial potential returns given the model's strong backing. While nothing is guaranteed in football betting, these odds present an enticing opportunity for the calculated punter.

Lech Poznań

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #23xGA #50xT #25xP/match #29Points #20

Key players

Patrik WålemarkRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.15
Luis PalmaLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.12
Wojciech MońkaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

Sunderland

Form WW

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #9xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
Enzo Le FéeCAMxG 0.28 · xT 0.14
Nordi MukieleRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
Numbers from Premier League 2026

Match prediction: Lech Poznań – Sunderland

Predicted score matrix

Sunderland →

Lech Poznań →

0–06.1%

0–15.9%

0–23.4%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–09.9%

1–111.4%

1–26.0%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.8%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.3%

3–15.8%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.5%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,77–1,08

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.04

Over 2,554%

@1.84

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lech Poznań to win57%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lech Poznań to win57%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Pablo Rodríguez Delgado to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Pablo Rodríguez Delgado to score25%
Kevin Danso to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lech Poznań57% probability@4.85PinnacleEV+177%reference odds
1 · Lech Poznań57% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+168%reference odds
1 · Lech Poznań57% probability@4.70NordicbetEV+168%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lech Poznań	X	2 · Sunderland
Betsafe	EV+ 168% 4.70	3.90	1.72
LeoVegas	EV+ 151% 4.40	3.70	1.73
Nordicbet	EV+ 168% 4.70	3.90	1.72
Pinnacle	EV+ 177% 4.85	3.96	1.72

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

23 %18 %

4.64 → 4.85

X-3 %

26 %21 %

4.08 → 3.96

2+3 %

58 %53 %

1.67 → 1.72

Over 2,5+1 %

55 %50 %

1.82 → 1.84

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lech Poznań

Sunderland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lech Poznań (9–10)

Sunderland (3–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lech Poznań

Sunderland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lech Poznań

Sunderland

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lech Poznań	Sunderland
Points	4	6
xPoints	4.8	4.5
xG per match	1.5	2.5
xGA per match	2.4	0.73
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.5
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.12

Playing style	Lech Poznań	Sunderland
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.47	0.54
xT per match	1	1.5
xTA per match	1.1	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	18	34
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.31
Entries into the box per match	16	16
Entries into the box against	16	6
Pass completion %	0.8	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.7
Passes per match	391	343
Passes against per match	391	307
Switches of play per match	27.1	28.8
Long balls per match	32	30

Set pieces	Lech Poznań	Sunderland
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.07
Corners per match	4.3	10.6
Corners against per match	5.1	3.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.29

Other	Lech Poznań	Sunderland
Throw-in control	0.59	0.79

The goalkeepers	Mateusz Lis (Lech Poznań)	Dan Ballard (Sunderland)
Saves	15	3
Save %	60%	100%
xG prevented	35%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lech Poznań

Fixtures, form & tips

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lech Poznań vs Sunderland according to our model?

The model gives Lech Poznań a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lech Poznań 57%, draw 24%, Sunderland 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?

The model expects 1.77 goals (xG) for Lech Poznań and 1.08 for Sunderland, 2.85 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lech Poznań or draw (1X) 81%, Sunderland or draw (X2) 43% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.