Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction: Away win 50% (22 Oct 2026)

Europa League22 October 202612°7,5 mm14 km/h

Läs på svenska

CeljeCounter-attacks & crosses

Red Bull SalzburgPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Red Bull Salzburg (50%)Best value by the model: 1 · Celje @ 5.95 (+62 %)

1 · Celje 27%X 23%50% Red Bull Salzburg · 2

27%

23%

50%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Celje win 27%, draw 23%, Red Bull Salzburg win 50%. Expected goals (xG): Celje 1.29, Red Bull Salzburg 1.92. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Celje or draw 50%, Red Bull Salzburg or draw 73%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Celje – Red Bull Salzburg

Erik Lindberg · 20 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Celje's daunting task against Red Bull Salzburg is underscored by a staggering 50% win probability for the visitors, based on recent form. Despite local hopes, the Slovenians are clear underdogs. Salzburg's dominance this season is evident: they lead in points and expected metrics, with Celje trailing with zero actual points and a mere 1.4 expected points.

Salzburg's high-tempo approach promises to stretch Celje's defense, already under heavy strain judging by their 1.8 expected goals against per match. The hosts' counter-attacking strategy, reliant on crosses, faces a stern test against Salzburg's high press. With expected goals of 1.92 for the visitors, Salzburg’s attacking intent is clear. Meanwhile, Celje's forecasted 1.29 goals highlight a struggle to penetrate Salzburg's lines.

The predicted scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 illustrate the potential for a competitive match, yet they both acknowledge Salzburg's stronger hand. The small head-to-head sample doesn't carry significant weight here, with current form and tactical setups providing a clearer picture. Interestingly, a rain-drenched pitch could suppress the goal count, but the model still leans heavily towards over 2.5 goals at 62%, suggesting the weather's impact is already factored in.

Despite clear indicators favoring the Austrian side, there lurks an enticing value proposition for the brave: Celje at odds of 4.95 with Betsafe or Nordicbet, where a 27% model probability presents a 35% edge. While a home upset remains improbable, such odds offer a calculated risk for those seeking substantial returns. Ending with the sharp edge: in a contest tilted towards Salzburg, the true intrigue might lie in the value offered by backing the underdogs.

Celje

Form LL

League ranking xG #45xGA #32xT #27xP/match #52Points #58

Key players

Artemijus TutyškinasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Milot AvdyliLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.24
Mark ZabukovnikCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Numbers from UEFA Champions League 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #14xGA #21xT #24xP/match #15Points #4

Key players

Edmund BaidooLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.28
Abubakr BarryCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Haris TabakovićFxG 0.82 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Celje – Red Bull Salzburg

Predicted score matrix

Red Bull Salzburg →

Celje →

0–04.3%

0–17.5%

0–27.4%

0–34.8%

0–4+3.5%

1–04.9%

1–110.3%

1–29.6%

1–36.1%

1–4+4.6%

2–03.4%

2–16.4%

2–26.2%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.9%

3–01.4%

3–12.8%

3–22.7%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.3%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-17%
4.0-27%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,29–1,92

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.35

Over 2,562%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Red Bull Salzburg to win50%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Red Bull Salzburg to win50%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Haris Tabaković to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Haris Tabaković to score35%
Abubakr Barry to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Celje27% probability@5.95BetsafeEV+62%reference odds
1 · Celje27% probability@5.95NordicbetEV+62%reference odds
1 · Celje27% probability@5.91PinnacleEV+61%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celje	X	2 · Red Bull Salzburg
Betsafe	EV+ 62% 5.95	EV+ 3% 4.40	1.52
LeoVegas	EV+ 52% 5.60	EV+ 3% 4.40	1.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 62% 5.95	EV+ 3% 4.40	1.52
Pinnacle	EV+ 61% 5.91	EV+ 7% 4.59	1.51

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Red Bull Salzburg win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.63 to 1.51 (−7%).

1+22 %

23 %13 %

4.85 → 5.91

X+10 %

27 %17 %

4.19 → 4.59

2-7 %

66 %56 %

1.63 → 1.51

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celje

Red Bull Salzburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celje (0–5)

Red Bull Salzburg (9–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celje

Red Bull Salzburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celje

Red Bull Salzburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg
Points	0	13
xPoints	1.4	10.1
xG per match	0.83	1.9
xGA per match	1.8	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.27

Playing style	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.46	0.63
xT per match	0.97	1
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	24	33
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	18	9
Pass completion %	0.84	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.77
Passes per match	519	477
Passes against per match	459	325
Switches of play per match	43.2	32.9
Long balls per match	34	37

Set pieces	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.01
Corners per match	2.5	6
Corners against per match	5.5	2.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.2	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.36	0.31

Other	Celje	Red Bull Salzburg
Throw-in control	0.76	0.68

The goalkeepers	Žan-Luk Leban (Celje)	Christian Zawieschitzky (Red Bull Salzburg)
Saves	10	17
Save %	71%	71%
xG prevented	64%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celje

Fixtures, form & tips

Red Bull Salzburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg according to our model?

The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celje 27%, draw 23%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg?

The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Celje and 1.92 for Red Bull Salzburg, 3.21 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Celje or draw (1X) 50%, Red Bull Salzburg or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.