01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Benfica to win71%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Europa League
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Omonia NicosiaBalanced & physicalvs
BenficaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Benfica (71%)Best value by the model: 1 · Omonia Nicosia @ 8.30 (+2 %)
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica · Europa League
1 · Omonia Nicosia 12%X 17%71% Benfica · 2
12%
17%
71%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica (Europa League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Omonia Nicosia win 12%, draw 17%, Benfica win 71%. Expected goals (xG): Omonia Nicosia 0.88, Benfica 2.31. Most likely score: 0-2 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Omonia Nicosia or draw 29%, Benfica or draw 88%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.
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Analysis: Omonia Nicosia – Benfica
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Benfica's dominance in both form and underlying metrics sets the stage for a likely victory against Omonia Nicosia. With a model probability of 71% for a Benfica win, the visitors are strongly favored. Their recent run of four consecutive victories and a remarkable streak of scoring in eight straight league matches amplify their threat. Meanwhile, the Cypriot side, despite their own three-game winning streak, face an uphill battle in this Europa clash.
The expected goals analysis paints a clear picture: Benfica's expected goals per match stand at a robust 2.7, while Omonia only muster 1.3. Additionally, the defensive edge goes to Benfica, with an expected goals against of 0.79 compared to Omonia’s 1.6. This disparity suggests that Omonia may struggle to contain Benfica's high-pressing and possession-heavy style, with the Portuguese outfit likely to dominate proceedings.
Though both sides come into the match on winning streaks, the qualitative difference in opposition and league settings means Benfica's form carries more weight. The most probable scoreline, 0-2, at 11%, aligns with the predicted flow of the game, while a 1-2 finish holds a 10% likelihood, indicating a potential for resistance from the home side but ultimately a Benfica victory.
Given the likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 53%, this matchup leans towards a higher scoring affair, which could see Benfica's attacking prowess overwhelm the hosts. However, for those who prefer a more cautious angle, the stability of a Benfica win captures value.
In a match where Benfica's superiority is clear, the best betting value lies in backing the visitors to take all three points. Sticking with the numbers, a 0-2 outcome seems the most sensible projection for those averse to risk.
Omonia NicosiaForm LWWW
League ranking xG #27xGA #28xT #28xP/match #21Points #5
Key players
- Ewandro Felipe de Lima CostaCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.21
- Senou CoulibalyCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
- Jure BalkovecLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
BenficaForm DWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #10xP/match #6Points #3
Key players
- Tomas AraujoCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.14
- Alexander BahRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.23
- Gianluca PrestianniLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.26
Match prediction: Omonia Nicosia – Benfica
Predicted score matrix
Benfica →
Omonia Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–19.2%
0–211.0%
0–38.4%
0–4+8.4%
1
1–03.4%
1–18.6%
1–29.7%
1–37.4%
1–4+7.4%
2
2–01.6%
2–13.7%
2–24.3%
2–33.3%
2–4+3.3%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.1%
3–21.3%
3–31.0%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-211%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.0-38%
Expected goals
0,88–2,31
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.50
Over 2,562%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Benfica to win71%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Gianluca Prestianni Gross to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Gianluca Prestianni Gross to score29%
- João Maria Lobo Alves Palhares Costa Palhinha Gonçalves to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Omonia Nicosia12% probability@8.30BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Omonia Nicosia12% probability@8.30NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Omonia Nicosia | X | 2 · Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 8.30 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| LeoVegas | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.35 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 8.30 | 5.25 | 1.35 |
| Pinnacle | 7.86 | 5.39 | 1.36 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
14 %9 %
7.68 → 7.86
X+4 %
20 %15 %
5.20 → 5.39
20 %
73 %68 %
1.35 → 1.36
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Omonia Nicosia come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Benfica come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Benfica have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Omonia Nicosia
Benfica
Omonia Nicosia (8–3)
Benfica (25–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Omonia Nicosia
Benfica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Omonia Nicosia
Benfica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Omonia Nicosia | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 19 |
| xPoints | 5.7 | 16.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.79 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Omonia Nicosia | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.79 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 23 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 359 | 513 |
| Passes against per match | 491 | 318 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.7 | 43.5 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Omonia Nicosia | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.51 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| Other | Omonia Nicosia | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Fabiano Ribeiro de Freitas (Omonia Nicosia) | Anatolii Trubin (Benfica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 16 |
| Save % | 80% | 84% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Juventus – Rennes22 October 2026
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar22 October 2026
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland22 October 2026
- Dinamo Zagreb – NEC22 October 2026
- Hoffenheim – Lyon22 October 2026
- Jagiellonia Białystok – Anderlecht22 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva22 October 2026
- Celtic – Celta Vigo22 October 2026
- Ferencváros – Torreense22 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica according to our model?
The model gives Benfica a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Omonia Nicosia 12%, draw 17%, Benfica 71%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica?
The model expects 0.88 goals (xG) for Omonia Nicosia and 2.31 for Benfica, 3.19 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Omonia Nicosia or draw (1X) 29%, Benfica or draw (X2) 88% and no draw (12) 83%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.