Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg Prediction: Home win 45% (10 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga10 October 2026Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg12°24,9 mm16 km/h

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NürnbergPossession control

WolfsburgPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nürnberg (45%)

1 · Nürnberg 45%X 25%30% Wolfsburg · 2

45%

25%

30%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Nürnberg – Wolfsburg

Oscar Nilsson · 2 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Nürnberg's unbeaten streak of 11 league matches speaks volumes, trumping Wolfsburg's inconsistent form. Despite the tighter xPoints margin, the hosts hold a clear advantage in expected goals against, showing a more stable defensive setup. With Nürnberg's consistent scoring over 11 games, they demonstrate a stronger offensive edge, despite Wolfsburg posting higher xG per match this season.

The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, though the model's overall lean favors a Nürnberg win, and the rain might tilt the balance slightly. The damp conditions could suppress scoring opportunities, further backing the under 3.5 goals scenario. The match promises to stay under this threshold 60% of the time, offering value at odds of 1.75 with LeoVegas.

For those eyeing the money line, Nürnberg appears undervalued at odds of 2.4 with LeoVegas. The model gives the hosts a 45% chance to win, creating an 8% edge. The metrics suggest a narrow 2-1 victory for the home side, but the real angle lies in finding value with the under 3.5 goals bet. When betting, remember that while statistics guide us, nothing is ever guaranteed.

Nürnberg

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #4xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Mohamed Ali ZomaLWxG 0.57 · xT 0.19
Adam MarkhievCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Piet ScobelFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02

Wolfsburg

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #1xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Fabian ReeseLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.34
Robert-Nesta GlatzelFxG 0.66 · xT 0.13
Alexander Olof BernhardssonRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Nürnberg – Wolfsburg

Predicted score matrix

Wolfsburg →

Nürnberg →

0–04.4%

0–15.6%

0–24.2%

0–32.0%

0–4+1.0%

1–06.9%

1–110.7%

1–27.4%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.4%

2–19.1%

2–26.5%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.7%

3–15.3%

3–23.8%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.4%

4+–13.5%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,76–1,43

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.82EV+8%

Over 2,562%

@1.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nürnberg to win45%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nürnberg to win45%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Adriano Grimaldi to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Adriano Grimaldi to score22%
Hauke Finn Wahl to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Nürnberg45% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Nürnberg45% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
Under 3.560% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nürnberg	X	2 · Wolfsburg
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 2.45	3.60	2.45
LeoVegas	EV+ 8% 2.40	3.75	2.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 2.45	3.60	2.45

Odds updated 3 Oct, 20:36

Odds movement

10 %

40 %35 %

2.40 → 2.40

X+1 %

27 %22 %

3.70 → 3.75

2+2 %

40 %35 %

2.40 → 2.45

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
1. FC Nurnberg have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nürnberg

Wolfsburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nürnberg (16–6)

Wolfsburg (15–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Wolfsburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nürnberg

Wolfsburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nürnberg	Wolfsburg
Points	16	11
xPoints	8.9	9.3
xG per match	1.7	1.9
xGA per match	1.2	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.19

Playing style	Nürnberg	Wolfsburg
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.61	0.58
xT per match	1.2	1.5
xTA per match	0.69	0.83
Won balls, offensive half	24	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	10	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.75
Passes per match	421	427
Passes against per match	286	299
Switches of play per match	26.8	23.5
Long balls per match	34	35

Set pieces	Nürnberg	Wolfsburg
xG from free kicks	0	0.06
Corners per match	5	6.5
Corners against per match	5.5	7.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.45

Other	Nürnberg	Wolfsburg
Throw-in control	0.73	0.76

The goalkeepers	Jan Reichert (Nürnberg)	Jakub Zieliński (Wolfsburg)
Saves	14	19
Save %	70%	70%
xG prevented	54%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nürnberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Wolfsburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nürnberg vs Wolfsburg according to our model?

The model gives Nürnberg a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nürnberg 45%, draw 25%, Wolfsburg 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.