Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus Prediction: Away win 40% (10 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga10 October 2026Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Darmstadt13°27,6 mm15 km/h

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DarmstadtLow block & direct

Energie CottbusCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Energie Cottbus (40%)

1 · Darmstadt 34%X 25%40% Energie Cottbus · 2

34%

25%

40%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Darmstadt – Energie Cottbus

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The numbers favor the visitors. Cottbus holds a slight edge in points, boasting 8 to Darmstadt's 4, and this translates into a stronger xPoints tally as well. Their attacking prowess is evident with an average xG of 1.7 per match, nearly double that of Darmstadt's 0.9. However, defensively, Darmstadt might have the upper hand, conceding slightly less in terms of expected goals against (1.9 vs 2.2). The model's probabilities give Energie Cottbus a 40% chance to take all three points, with the most likely scoreline being a tight 1-1 draw.

Despite the wet conditions predicted to saturate the pitch, the model projects a 61% chance for over 2.5 goals, alongside a 62% likelihood of both teams finding the net. The rain, while dampening, is already factored into these figures, suggesting a lively encounter. A calculated 1-2 result seems plausible given the teams' xG profiles and defensive vulnerabilities.

From a betting perspective, the standout value lies with Cottbus at odds of 2.8 with LeoVegas, representing a 13% edge according to the model. Additionally, backing under 3.5 goals at 1.727 also holds a 6% edge, making it a sensible choice for those looking to mitigate risk. The odds suggest that while Cottbus is the lean, there's room to maneuver under a relatively conservative goal ceiling.

Darmstadt

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #18xP/match #18Points #18

Key players

Ho-Jae LeeRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.00
Milan SmitFxG 0.32 · xT 0.01
Florian KleinhanslLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11

Energie Cottbus

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #11xP/match #16Points #7

Key players

Lucas CopadoFxG 0.18 · xT 0.09
Tolcay CigerciRWxG 0.51 · xT 0.18
King ManuCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Darmstadt – Energie Cottbus

Predicted score matrix

Energie Cottbus →

Darmstadt →

0–04.6%

0–17.5%

0–27.1%

0–34.4%

0–4+3.0%

1–05.3%

1–110.6%

1–29.5%

1–35.8%

1–4+4.0%

2–03.7%

2–16.9%

2–26.3%

2–33.8%

2–4+2.7%

3–01.7%

3–13.0%

3–22.8%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-17%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,33–1,83

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.80EV+6%

Over 2,561%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (X2)73%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (X2)73%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Lucas Fernando Copado Schrobenhauser to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Milan Smit to score26%
Hiroki Akiyama to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Energie Cottbus40% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Energie Cottbus40% probability@2.85LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds
2 · Energie Cottbus40% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Darmstadt	X	2 · Energie Cottbus
Betsafe	2.12	3.70	EV+ 15% 2.85
LeoVegas	2.10	3.80	EV+ 15% 2.85
Nordicbet	2.12	3.70	EV+ 15% 2.85

Odds updated 4 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

46 %41 %

2.08 → 2.10

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.80 → 3.80

2+2 %

35 %30 %

2.80 → 2.85

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Darmstadt

Energie Cottbus

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Darmstadt (5–13)

Energie Cottbus (14–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Energie Cottbus

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Darmstadt

Energie Cottbus

The teams in numbers

Performance	Darmstadt	Energie Cottbus
Points	4	8
xPoints	6.4	6.9
xG per match	0.9	1.7
xGA per match	1.9	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.42	0.35

Playing style	Darmstadt	Energie Cottbus
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.3	0.62
xT per match	0.61	0.92
xTA per match	1.6	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.26
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	23	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.71
Passes per match	304	384
Passes against per match	485	312
Switches of play per match	19.3	28.8
Long balls per match	26	32

Set pieces	Darmstadt	Energie Cottbus
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.08
Corners per match	4.5	7.9
Corners against per match	7.9	5.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.52

Other	Darmstadt	Energie Cottbus
Throw-in control	0.71	0.73

The goalkeepers	Marcel Schuhen (Darmstadt)	Marcel Lotka (Energie Cottbus)
Saves	23	24
Save %	64%	67%
xG prevented	39%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Darmstadt

Fixtures, form & tips

Energie Cottbus

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus according to our model?

The model gives Energie Cottbus a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Darmstadt 34%, draw 25%, Energie Cottbus 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.