01 · 2 legs
Safe
- St. Pauli to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion, Hamburg10°0,3 mm22 km/h
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St. PauliPossession & high pressvs
KarlsruhePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · St. Pauli (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.62 (+19 %)
St. Pauli vs Karlsruhe · 2. Bundesliga
1 · St. Pauli 53%X 25%22% Karlsruhe · 2
53%
25%
22%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: St. Pauli – Karlsruhe
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The head-to-head matchups offer a limited sample, but the numbers suggest a close contest between St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC. With the hosts given a 53% chance of victory by the model, they hold a slight edge. However, both teams' playing styles — St. Pauli's high press and Karlsruhe's possession control — indicate a tactical battle that could swing either way, with the visitors' more potent attack potentially offsetting their defensive vulnerabilities.
St. Pauli's advantage in points so far this season (7 to Karlsruhe's 5) is tempered by xPoints, where Karlsruhe holds a narrow lead (8.6 to 8.3). This suggests the visitors have perhaps been unlucky or inefficient, but with a higher expected goals per match (1.6 to St. Pauli's 1.3), they could pose a significant threat. Conversely, the hosts' stronger defense, conceding fewer expected goals against (1.1 compared to Karlsruhe's 1.7), might provide a foundation for them to grind out a win.
The expected goals figures forecast a match where the home side should generate more opportunities (1.81 to 1.06), yet the most likely scorelines — 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), and 2-1 (10%) — paint a picture of a closely contested game. The weather's likely impact, with 8.7 mm of rain expected, could further dampen goal-scoring chances, influencing the already balanced model numbers towards a more defensive game.
With the over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both at 55%, the market sees a slight lean towards a more open, higher-scoring game, even as the rainy conditions and St. Pauli's solid defense keep the contest competitive. If you're eyeing value, look at FanDuel's 1-0 St. Pauli correct score at attractive odds, a play that aligns with both defensive tendencies and expected weather impact.
St. PauliForm DLDWD
League ranking xG #14xGA #1xT #5xP/match #11Points #11
Key players
- Arkadiusz PyrkaRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
- Taichi HaraFxG 0.28 · xT 0.10
- Abdoulie CeesayFxG 0.67 · xT -0.02
KarlsruheForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #17xP/match #6Points #14
Key players
- Moritz BroschinskiFxG 0.54 · xT -0.26
- Marvin WanitzekCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
- Sebastian JungRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: St. Pauli – Karlsruhe
Predicted score matrix
Karlsruhe →
St. Pauli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–15.7%
0–23.2%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.0%
1–111.2%
1–25.8%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.8%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.6%
3–15.9%
3–23.1%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.0%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,81–1,06
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.62EV+19%
Over 2,555%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- St. Pauli to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Taichi Hara to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Taichi Hara to score27%
- Marcel Franke to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.60LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Pauli | X | 2 · Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.65 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Nordicbet | 1.65 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | EV+ 8% 4.31 | 4.26 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Pauli
Karlsruhe
St. Pauli (8–8)
Karlsruhe (6–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Pauli
Karlsruhe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Pauli
Karlsruhe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Pauli | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 5 |
| xPoints | 8.3 | 8.6 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.48 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | St. Pauli | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.74 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 358 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 422 | 369 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.7 | 15.4 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 27 |
| Set pieces | St. Pauli | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.32 |
| Other | St. Pauli | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Ben Alexander Voll (St. Pauli) | Hans Christian Bernat (Karlsruhe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 24 |
| Save % | 75% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Magdeburg – Hannover 9610 October 2026
- Osnabrück – Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026
- Darmstadt – Energie Cottbus10 October 2026
- Nürnberg – Wolfsburg10 October 2026
- Hertha Berlin – Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
- Bochum – Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Pauli vs Karlsruhe according to our model?
The model gives St. Pauli a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Pauli 53%, draw 25%, Karlsruhe 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.