Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel Prediction: Away win 38% (9 Oct 2026)

2. Bundesliga9 October 2026Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig10°0,9 mm18 km/h

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Eintracht BraunschweigPossession & high press

Holstein KielPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Holstein Kiel (38%)Soft draw

1 · Eintracht Braunschweig 35%X 27%38% Holstein Kiel · 2

35%

27%

38%

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Analysis: Eintracht Braunschweig – Holstein Kiel

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Eintracht Braunschweig's high pressing style against Holstein Kiel's possession control promises a tactical battle where the nuances of each team's approach could decide the outcome. The home side thrives on quick transitions, as evidenced by their superior xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, indicating they are adept at converting defensive actions into offensive threats. Braunschweig's inclination to press high may force Kiel into mistakes, but Kiel's ability to keep possession could mitigate this risk, setting up a fascinating clash of football philosophies.

The model gives a slight edge to Kiel with a 38% probability of victory compared to Braunschweig's 35%. With such evenly matched odds, the 1-1 scoreline appearing as the most probable outcome at 11% underscores the likelihood of a tight contest. The expected goals tally, which favors Braunschweig at 1.58 against Kiel's 1.48, hints that the hosts might create slightly more opportunities, but the visitors' defensive solidity (xGA of 1.4 compared to Braunschweig's 2.0) suggests they'll be difficult to break down.

Despite Braunschweig's potential edge in creating chances, the expected rain could suppress scoring, adding a layer of complexity to the tactical dynamics. Both teams are forecasted to score in 62% of simulations, yet the weather is baked into these figures, suggesting it could dampen the attacking displays.

The over 2.5 goals market leans towards hitting with a 59% probability, but considering the weather and the defensive strength of Kiel, a bet on under 2.5 goals might hold value. However, the sharpest angle might be the draw at odds of 3.30 with Bet365, reflecting the balanced nature of this matchup and the small head-to-head sample weighting less in the face of current form and expected goals.

Eintracht Braunschweig

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #16xT #8xP/match #10Points #15

Key players

Aaron Opoku-TiawiahRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
Yann SturmLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.17
Jan UrbichFxG 0.57 · xT 0.01

Holstein Kiel

Form DLDLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #3xP/match #9Points #16

Key players

Phil HarresFxG 0.76 · xT 0.00
Adrián KaprálikFxG 0.16 · xT 0.18
Guillermo BalziRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Eintracht Braunschweig – Holstein Kiel

Predicted score matrix

Holstein Kiel →

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0–05.0%

0–16.6%

0–25.1%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.1%

1–111.3%

1–28.1%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.9%

2–18.7%

2–26.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.1%

3–14.6%

3–23.4%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,58–1,48

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.35

Over 2,559%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (X2)60%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (X2)60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Phil Harres to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Phil Harres to score22%
Hiroki Sekine to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Eintracht Braunschweig	X	2 · Holstein Kiel
Betsafe	2.62	3.50	2.35
LeoVegas	2.60	3.60	2.35
Nordicbet	2.62	3.50	2.35

Odds updated 3 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

10 %

38 %33 %

2.60 → 2.60

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.60

2+2 %

42 %37 %

2.30 → 2.35

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig 0Draw 1Holstein Kiel 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eintracht Braunschweig

Holstein Kiel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eintracht Braunschweig (12–13)

Holstein Kiel (7–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eintracht Braunschweig

Holstein Kiel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eintracht Braunschweig

Holstein Kiel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eintracht Braunschweig	Holstein Kiel
Points	4	4
xPoints	8.3	8.4
xG per match	1.8	1.6
xGA per match	2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.26

Playing style	Eintracht Braunschweig	Holstein Kiel
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.52	0.64
xT per match	1	1.2
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	32
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.29
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	359	394
Passes against per match	381	305
Switches of play per match	31.1	19.9
Long balls per match	37	29

Set pieces	Eintracht Braunschweig	Holstein Kiel
xG from free kicks	0	0.14
Corners per match	4.5	6.7
Corners against per match	6.6	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.61
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.48

Other	Eintracht Braunschweig	Holstein Kiel
Throw-in control	0.73	0.73

The goalkeepers	Ron-Thorben Hoffmann (Eintracht Braunschweig)	Timon Moritz Weiner (Holstein Kiel)
Saves	24	17
Save %	67%	65%
xG prevented	47%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eintracht Braunschweig

Fixtures, form & tips

Holstein Kiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel according to our model?

The model gives Holstein Kiel a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eintracht Braunschweig 35%, draw 27%, Holstein Kiel 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.