Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga20 September 2026Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus17°1,8 mm23 km/h

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Energie CottbusCounter-attacks & crosses

St. PauliPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Energie Cottbus (42%)

1 · Energie Cottbus 42%X 25%33% St. Pauli · 2

42%

25%

33%

Analysis: Energie Cottbus – St. Pauli

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Energie Cottbus' ability to punch above their weight is evident in their offensive prowess, reflected in an xG of 1.9 per match. This capability to create scoring opportunities puts them at an advantage over St. Pauli, who lag behind with an xG of 1.4. However, the defensive side of the equation paints a different picture. Cottbus concedes an alarming 2.5 xGA per match, which might give St. Pauli's high-pressing attack a chance to capitalize, even in a wet and possibly slower-paced match.

St. Pauli might have the upper hand in controlling the game with their possession-oriented style, but the market seems to undervalue the hosts. Energie Cottbus, with 42% probability, is tipped by the models as the likelier victor, especially at odds of 2.85 from bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This presents a significant edge of 19%, making it a noteworthy opportunity for discerning bettors.

It’s a matchup where the models foresee goals aplenty, with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. Yet, the expected rain could dampen attacking fluidity, slightly skewing the goal probability. Despite this, the most probable scorelines hover around a 1-1 or a narrow 2-1 victory, emphasizing the closeness of the contest.

While points currently favor Cottbus slightly (7 vs St. Pauli's 6), the expected points (xPoints) suggest St. Pauli might have been a tad unlucky so far, hinting at their potential to upset the hosts if they find their rhythm. However, the counter-attacking and crossing prowess of Cottbus could exploit any lapses in St. Pauli's high press.

When it comes to value, it's hard to ignore the edge in backing Cottbus at home. With the model highlighting the discrepancy, backing Energie Cottbus at 2.85 feels like the sharpest play in this tightly contested fixture.

Energie Cottbus

Form WLLDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #18xT #13xP/match #16Points #7

Key players

Lucas CopadoFxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
Tolcay CigerciRWxG 0.57 · xT 0.18
King ManuCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.05

St. Pauli

Form DDLDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #4xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Arkadiusz PyrkaRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
Abdoulie CeesayFxG 0.80 · xT -0.01
Taichi HaraFxG 0.30 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Energie Cottbus – St. Pauli

Predicted score matrix

St. Pauli →

Energie Cottbus →

0–04.7%

0–16.4%

0–25.1%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.4%

1–06.7%

1–111.0%

1–28.2%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.2%

2–05.6%

2–18.6%

2–26.5%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.8%

3–03.0%

3–14.6%

3–23.5%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.6%

4+–22.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,60–1,52

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

@2.72EV+7%

Over 2,560%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Energie Cottbus or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Jannis Boziaris to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Jannis Boziaris to score24%
David Nemeth to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Energie Cottbus42% probability@3.25Paddy PowerEV+36%reference odds
1 · Energie Cottbus42% probability@3.13PinnacleEV+31%reference odds
1 · Energie Cottbus42% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Energie Cottbus	X	2 · St. Pauli
Betfair Exchange	1.10	3.90	1.99
Betsafe	EV+ 19% 2.85	3.65	2.12
Betsson	EV+ 19% 2.85	3.65	2.12
Nordicbet	EV+ 19% 2.85	3.65	2.12
Paddy Power	EV+ 36% 3.25	3.75	1.90
Pinnacle	EV+ 31% 3.13	3.98	2.14

Odds updated 19 Sept, 17:36

Odds movement

1-7 %

32 %27 %

3.37 → 3.13

X+5 %

27 %22 %

3.80 → 3.98

2+5 %

49 %44 %

2.04 → 2.14

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Energie Cottbus

St. Pauli

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Energie Cottbus (13–12)

St. Pauli (7–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Energie Cottbus

St. Pauli

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Energie Cottbus

St. Pauli

The teams in numbers

Performance	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli
Points	7	6
xPoints	5.6	6.9
xG per match	1.9	1.4
xGA per match	2.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.41	0.12

Playing style	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.55	0.6
xT per match	0.86	1.2
xTA per match	1.2	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	21	31
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	16	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.71
Passes per match	344	384
Passes against per match	329	389
Switches of play per match	27	21.6
Long balls per match	32	29

Set pieces	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.07
Corners per match	7.6	6.7
Corners against per match	5.6	3.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.56	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.68

Other	Energie Cottbus	St. Pauli
Throw-in control	0.69	0.8

The goalkeepers	Marcel Lotka (Energie Cottbus)	Ben Alexander Voll (St. Pauli)
Saves	23	14
Save %	68%	74%
xG prevented	41%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Energie Cottbus

Fixtures, form & tips

St. Pauli

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli according to our model?

The model gives Energie Cottbus a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Energie Cottbus 42%, draw 25%, St. Pauli 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.