Hannover 96 vs Bochum: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga20 September 2026Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover18°0,4 mm25 km/h

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Hannover 96Possession & high press

BochumPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hannover 96 (55%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.67 (+8 %)

1 · Hannover 96 55%X 21%24% Bochum · 2

55%

21%

24%

Analysis: Hannover 96 – Bochum

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A crucial stat dominates this matchup: Hannover 96 has a 55% probability of winning, yet they've failed to beat Bochum in their last two encounters since 2023. Despite this, the hosts are buoyed by their expected goals advantage, producing 1.9 xG per match compared to Bochum’s 1.6. Their high-pressing style could disrupt Bochum's possession control and create key scoring opportunities. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, mirrored by an xGA of 1.9, in stark contrast to Bochum’s more stable 1.2 xGA.

The most likely scorelines suggest a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw leading at 11% probability. Hannover 96’s slight edge in expected goals could tilt the balance toward a 2-1 result at 9% likelihood. While their form suggests potential, it’s balanced by Bochum's actual points tally of 7, overshadowing Hannover’s 4. Despite the apparent high chance of both teams scoring (60%), the model sees under 2.5 goals happening 42% of the time, providing a significant value angle.

Undoubtedly, the sharpest betting edge lies in the under 2.5 goals market, available at 2.58 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With a 9% edge, it's an attractive proposition in a match where tactical nuances might reduce the goal count.

Hannover 96

Form LLWDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #14xT #2xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Mustapha BunduRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.44
Maurice NeubauerRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
Kolja OudenneLWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.22

Bochum

Form LWLWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #6xP/match #4Points #8

Key players

Maximilian WittekLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Philipp HofmannFxG 0.38 · xT 0.01
Mats PannewigCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Hannover 96 – Bochum

Predicted score matrix

Bochum →

Hannover 96 →

0–05.3%

0–16.1%

0–24.1%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.2%

1–111.3%

1–27.1%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.3%

2–19.4%

2–26.1%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.1%

3–04.2%

3–15.4%

3–23.5%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.6%

4+–13.4%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,72–1,29

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.52EV+6%

Over 2,558%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hannover 96 to win55%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hannover 96 to win55%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Benjamin Källman to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Benjamin Källman to score27%
Tom Meyer to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.565% probability@1.67PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@2.52BetssonEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hannover 96	X	2 · Bochum
Betsafe	1.80	3.85	3.65
Betsson	1.80	3.85	3.65
Nordicbet	1.80	3.85	3.65
Pinnacle	1.81	4.15	4.05

Odds updated 19 Sept, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

55 %50 %

1.82 → 1.81

X+3 %

26 %21 %

4.02 → 4.15

2+3 %

26 %21 %

3.94 → 4.05

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 13/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Hannover 96 0Draw 2Bochum 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hannover 96

Bochum

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hannover 96 (5–8)

Bochum (4–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hannover 96

Bochum

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hannover 96

Bochum

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hannover 96	Bochum
Points	4	7
xPoints	6	7.6
xG per match	1.9	1.6
xGA per match	1.9	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.56	0.2

Playing style	Hannover 96	Bochum
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.64	0.52
xT per match	1.4	1
xTA per match	0.86	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	27	30
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.3
Entries into the box per match	22	11
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.69
Passes per match	414	406
Passes against per match	326	347
Switches of play per match	26.3	26.4
Long balls per match	35	36

Set pieces	Hannover 96	Bochum
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.02
Corners per match	5.6	4.8
Corners against per match	4.4	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.81	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.81	0.87

Other	Hannover 96	Bochum
Throw-in control	0.78	0.71

The goalkeepers	Leo Weinkauf (Hannover 96)	Timo Phil Horn (Bochum)
Saves	20	13
Save %	80%	77%
xG prevented	62%	77%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hannover 96

Fixtures, form & tips

Bochum

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hannover 96 vs Bochum according to our model?

The model gives Hannover 96 a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hannover 96 55%, draw 21%, Bochum 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.