BundesligaBorussia-Park, Mönchengladbach14°16,8 mm29 km/h

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    Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia MönchengladbachBalanced & physical
    vs
    MainzMainzPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Mainz (43%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.58 (+1 %)

    Borussia Mönchengladbach – Mainz · Bundesliga

    1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%X 27%43% Mainz · 2

    Analysis: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Mainz

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Mainz comes into this fixture with a 43% chance of victory according to the model, a clear edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach's 30%. The visitors not only have a higher probability of winning but also display stronger underlying metrics. Their expected goals against (0.64 per game) starkly contrasts with the host's porous defense, which concedes an average of 2.9 xGA per match. Such numbers paint a picture of defensive solidity from Mainz that the home side struggles to match.

    Despite a small sample size of four head-to-head encounters since 2022, both teams have shared the spoils fairly evenly. However, the form and expected goal metrics strongly tilt towards Mainz, who also lead in points and expected points in recent contests. With Gladbach's more physical approach clashing against Mainz's high press, the tactical battle could favor the visitors' efforts to control possession and dictate the pace.

    For those eyeing the betting angles, the over 2.5 goals at 58% implies a slight lean over, but more crucially, Mainz edging out a win aligns with the odds.

    Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
    Form WLWLL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #18xT #9xP/match #15Points #17
    Key players
    • Axel Hugo BolinFxG 0.59 · xT 0.28
    • Franck HonoratRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.59
    • Philipp SanderCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
    MainzMainz
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #5
    Key players
    • Anthony CaciRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.27
    • Nadiem AmiriLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.50
    • Sheraldo BeckerFxG 0.21 · xT 0.59

    Match prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach – Mainz

    Predicted score matrix

    Mainz →
    Borussia Mönchengladbach →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.1%
    0–17.8%
    0–26.9%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+2.4%
    1
    1–06.2%
    1–111.3%
    1–29.2%
    1–35.2%
    1–4+3.2%
    2
    2–04.3%
    2–17.3%
    2–26.2%
    2–33.5%
    2–4+2.2%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,34–1,69
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,542%
    @2.41EV+0%
    Over 2,558%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Mainz or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    57%

    Fair odds

    1.76

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Mainz or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Paul Nebel to score21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals58%
    • Shuto Machino to score26%
    • Danny Vieira da Costa to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 3.564% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
    • Under 3.564% probability@1.58BetssonEV+1%reference odds
    • Under 3.564% probability@1.58NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Borussia MönchengladbachX2 · Mainz
    Betsafe2.823.602.30
    Betsson2.853.602.30
    Nordicbet2.823.602.30

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Borussia Mönchengladbach 1Draw 2Mainz 1
    Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Mainz
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Borussia Mönchengladbach (3–7)
    Mainz (5–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Philipp Sander: 107 passningar, xT 0.28SanderKevin Diks: 99 passningar, xT 0.14DiksKo Itakura: 88 passningar, xT 0.33ItakuraMoritz Nicolas: 64 passningar, xT 0.09NicolasMathieu Nguefack: 49 passningar, xT 0.01NguefackAxel Hugo Bolin: 48 passningar, xT 0.38BolinJoe Scally: 45 passningar, xT 0.04ScallyFranck Honorat: 39 passningar, xT 0.63HonoratLukas Ullrich: 34 passningar, xT 0.28UllrichKevin Stöger: 32 passningar, xT 0StögerWael Mohya: 29 passningar, xT 0Mohya
    Mainz
    Nadiem Amiri: 78 passningar, xT 0.56AmiriKaishu Sano: 73 passningar, xT 0.16SanoFabio Gruber: 71 passningar, xT 0.13GruberAnthony Caci: 63 passningar, xT 0.29CaciPhillipp Mwene: 56 passningar, xT -0.01MweneKacper Potulski: 55 passningar, xT 0.03PotulskiDanny Da Costa: 46 passningar, xT 0.8CostaJae-Sung Lee: 45 passningar, xT -0.05LeeDominik Kohr: 43 passningar, xT 0.07KohrPhillip Tietz: 34 passningar, xT -0.15TietzStefan Posch: 30 passningar, xT 0.08Posch
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Philipp Sander: 107 passningar, xT 0.28SanderKevin Diks: 99 passningar, xT 0.14DiksKo Itakura: 88 passningar, xT 0.33ItakuraMoritz Nicolas: 64 passningar, xT 0.09NicolasMathieu Nguefack: 49 passningar, xT 0.01NguefackAxel Hugo Bolin: 48 passningar, xT 0.38BolinJoe Scally: 45 passningar, xT 0.04ScallyFranck Honorat: 39 passningar, xT 0.63HonoratLukas Ullrich: 34 passningar, xT 0.28UllrichKevin Stöger: 32 passningar, xT 0StögerWael Mohya: 29 passningar, xT 0Mohya
    Mainz
    Nadiem Amiri: 78 passningar, xT 0.56AmiriKaishu Sano: 73 passningar, xT 0.16SanoFabio Gruber: 71 passningar, xT 0.13GruberAnthony Caci: 63 passningar, xT 0.29CaciPhillipp Mwene: 56 passningar, xT -0.01MweneKacper Potulski: 55 passningar, xT 0.03PotulskiDanny Da Costa: 46 passningar, xT 0.8CostaJae-Sung Lee: 45 passningar, xT -0.05LeeDominik Kohr: 43 passningar, xT 0.07KohrPhillip Tietz: 34 passningar, xT -0.15TietzStefan Posch: 30 passningar, xT 0.08Posch

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBorussia MönchengladbachMainz
    Points04
    xPoints1.84.1
    xG per match1.92
    xGA per match2.90.64
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.440.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.430.22
    Playing styleBorussia MönchengladbachMainz
    Build-up efficiency0.280.31
    Field tilt0.550.65
    xT per match1.42
    xTA per match1.31.2
    Won balls, offensive half2825
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.25
    Entries into the box per match1524
    Entries into the box against189
    Pass completion %0.780.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.68
    Passes per match362344
    Passes against per match332371
    Switches of play per match17.927
    Long balls per match2838
    Set piecesBorussia MönchengladbachMainz
    xG from free kicks00.07
    Corners per match9.48.2
    Corners against per match5.53.1
    xG per corner0.050.01
    xGA per corner against0.130
    First touch, offensive corners %0.210.62
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.83
    OtherBorussia MönchengladbachMainz
    Throw-in control0.740.81
    The goalkeepersMoritz Nicolas (Borussia Mönchengladbach)Fabio Gruber (Mainz)
    Saves142
    Save %67%100%
    xG prevented58%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Mainz
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz according to our model?

    The model gives Mainz a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30%, draw 27%, Mainz 43%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.