01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Stuttgart to win45%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
BundesligaMHPArena, Stuttgart15°19 km/h
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StuttgartLow block & directvs
Borussia DortmundPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Stuttgart (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.10 (+25 %)
Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
1 · Stuttgart 45%X 24%30% Borussia Dortmund · 2
45%
24%
30%
Analysis: Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
VfB Stuttgart's low defence meets Borussia Dortmund's high press in Saturday's Bundesliga clash, creating a compelling tactical tension. Stuttgart's strategy of low defence and direct play will be tested against Dortmund's possession-heavy, aggressive pressing style. The home side, with a record of scoring in their last eight matches, will look to exploit any gaps left by Dortmund's forward-driven approach. Meanwhile, the visitors, buoyed by four consecutive wins, aim to impose their dominance on the ball.
Model probabilities give Stuttgart a 45% chance of victory, suggesting the hosts hold a slight edge, despite Dortmund's superior xPoint tally of 3.7 to Stuttgart's 1.4. The expected goals lean towards Stuttgart at 1.66 over Dortmund's 1.42, hinting at a closely contested battle. However, the historical head-to-head is sparse, with only four meetings since 2022, and Stuttgart having a slight advantage of two wins to Dortmund's one, with one draw. This limited sample should be considered cautiously.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at 60%, while both teams to score is priced at 62%, especially with Stuttgart's consistent scoring streak. However, the hosts' defensive vulnerabilities are stark, conceding an average of 2.9 xGA per match compared to Dortmund's 1.0. Stuttgart's historical home win rate of 57% from 35 matches suggests resilience, yet Dortmund's current form and their efficient pressing game could disrupt their rhythm.
With a predicted scoreline leaning towards a 1-1 draw (11%) or Stuttgart edging it 2-1 (9%), the match's dynamics could tilt either way. Yet, the sharp betting angle might rest on Stuttgart's slight edge and direct playing style, especially if they capitalize on defensive lapses by Dortmund.
StuttgartForm DWDLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #10xP/match #17Points #7
Key players
- Bilal El KhannoussFxG 0.28 · xT 0.48
- Grischa PrömelFxG 0.27 · xT 0.04
- Deniz UndavFxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Borussia DortmundForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #8xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Serhou GuirassyFxG 0.45 · xT 0.06
- Maximilian BeierLWxG 0.60 · xT 0.22
- Felix NmechaCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
Match prediction: Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund
Predicted score matrix
Borussia Dortmund →
Stuttgart →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–16.2%
0–24.6%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–07.3%
1–111.1%
1–27.7%
1–33.6%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.3%
2–19.0%
2–26.4%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.5%
3–15.0%
3–23.5%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.1%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,66–1,42
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@3.10EV+25%
Over 2,560%
@1.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Stuttgart to win45%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Fábio Daniel Soares Silva to score30%
- Jobe Samuel Patrick Bellingham to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.540% probability@3.10BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
- Under 2.540% probability@3.10BetssonEV+25%reference odds
- Under 2.540% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Stuttgart | X | 2 · Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.78 |
| Betsson | EV+ 2% 2.25 | 3.85 | 2.78 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 2.29 | 3.69 | 2.91 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:15
Odds movement
10 %
44 %39 %
2.28 → 2.29
X0 %
28 %23 %
3.68 → 3.69
20 %
35 %30 %
2.90 → 2.91
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesStuttgart 2Draw 1Borussia Dortmund 1
Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- VFB Stuttgart have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Borussia Dortmund come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- VFB Stuttgart win 57% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
Stuttgart (5–6)
Borussia Dortmund (5–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 6 |
| xPoints | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 2.9 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 379 | 366 |
| Passes against per match | 387 | 377 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.8 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.6 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 8.6 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Other | Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Fabian Bredlow (Stuttgart) | Gregor Kobel (Borussia Dortmund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 7 |
| Save % | 62% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 75% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund according to our model?
The model gives Stuttgart a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stuttgart 45%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.