Bundesliga16°0,2 mm24 km/h

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    PaderbornPaderbornCounter-attacks & crosses
    0–1
    FreiburgFreiburgBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Freiburg (42%)Best value by the model: 1 · Paderborn @ 3.88 (+25 %)

    Paderborn – Freiburg · Bundesliga

    1 · Paderborn 32%X 25%42% Freiburg · 2

    Analysis: Paderborn – Freiburg

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A clash of styles sets the stage for Paderborn hosting Freiburg. The hosts bank heavily on counter-attacks and crosses, while Freiburg's physical, balanced approach could stifle such ambitions. The visitors have shown defensive discipline with an impressive xGA of just 0.62, contrasting sharply with Paderborn's more porous 1.4. Leaning into defense and structure, Freiburg appears primed to dictate the pace and direction of this matchup.

    Numbers tilt the scales toward Freiburg. While Paderborn's attacking output, with an xG of 0.98, suggests struggles to break down resilient defenses, Freiburg averages 2.0 xG per match and should find ways to exploit any defensive lapses from the hosts. More telling is Freiburg's edge in both points and expected points, painting a picture of a team consistently better positioned to claim victory.

    Goals could be modest. The model's expected goals (1.33 to 1.44) and most likely scorelines — 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 — highlight the potential for a closely contested affair. With over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%, the numbers support a slight lean toward a controlled game rather than a high-scoring event. Freiburg's defensive acumen might limit Paderborn's counter-attacks, keeping the scoreline tight, likely ending in a subdued 0-1 or 1-2 victory for the visitors.

    For those seeking value, Paderborn's odds of 3.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer a tempting 15% edge, as the model rates their win probability at 32%. While the numbers favor Freiburg, the calculated risk on the hosts might appeal to those willing to back an underdog with a statistical nudge.

    PaderbornPaderborn
    Form D
    League ranking xG #15xGA #8xT #10xP/match #10Points #9
    Key players
    • Raphael ObermairLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.27
    • Filip BilbijaFxG 0.51 · xT 0.02
    • Mika BaurCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
    • Numbers from DFB-Pokal 2025
    FreiburgFreiburg
    Form LDLWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #11xP/match #6Points #2
    Key players
    • Igor MatanovicFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
    • Patrick OsterhageFxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    • Maximilian EggesteinCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Paderborn 32% · Draw 25% · Freiburg 42%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - SC Paderborn 07Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,03fair 10,77-16 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - SC FreiburgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,25fair 9,09-42 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Paderborn – Freiburg

    Predicted score matrix

    Freiburg →
    Paderborn →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.6%
    0–18.7%
    0–26.5%
    0–33.1%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–08.0%
    1–112.3%
    1–28.7%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–18.0%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–02.4%
    3–13.5%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-19%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,33–1,44
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.30EV+5%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.70

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Freiburg or draw (X2)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Freiburg or draw (X2)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Johan Manzambi to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Johan Manzambi to score24%
    • Santiago Castañeda to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Paderborn32% probability@3.88PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
    • 1 · Paderborn32% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • 1 · Paderborn32% probability@3.55BetssonEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PaderbornX2 · Freiburg
    Bet3652.803.402.35
    Betsafe
    EV+ 15%
    3.55    		3.601.98
    Betsson
    EV+ 15%
    3.55    		3.651.98
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 15%
    3.55    		3.601.98
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 25%
    3.88    		3.821.94

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Freiburg win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.21 to 1.94 (−12%).

    1+28 %
    33 %23 %

    3.03 → 3.88

    X+4 %
    30 %20 %

    3.67 → 3.82

    2-12 %
    51 %41 %

    2.21 → 1.94

    Over 2,5+1 %
    62 %52 %

    1.68 → 1.70

    Pinnacle · 23 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Freiburg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Freiburg (4–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Paderborn
    Mattes Hansen: 53 passningar, xT 0.03HansenTjark Scheller: 50 passningar, xT 0.05SchellerGabriel Vidović: 45 passningar, xT 0.02VidovićSantiago Castañeda: 41 passningar, xT 0.02CastañedaJano ter Horst: 39 passningar, xT 0.2HorstNahuel Nicolas Noll: 33 passningar, xT 0.04NollRaphael Obermair: 27 passningar, xT 0.32ObermairLaurin Curda: 24 passningar, xT 0.37CurdaLaurin Ulrich: 20 passningar, xT -0.06UlrichMarvin Pieringer: 17 passningar, xT 0.13PieringerStefano Marino: 14 passningar, xT -0.03Marino
    Freiburg
    Matthias Ginter: 65 passningar, xT 0.23GinterPhilipp Lienhart: 58 passningar, xT 0.16LienhartMaximilian Eggestein: 49 passningar, xT 0.01EggesteinJordy Makengo: 46 passningar, xT 0MakengoMio Backhaus: 33 passningar, xT 0.03BackhausLukas Kübler: 32 passningar, xT 0.04KüblerYannik Engelhardt: 27 passningar, xT -0.04EngelhardtNiklas Beste: 23 passningar, xT 0.09BesteYuito Suzuki: 21 passningar, xT 0.01SuzukiDerry Scherhant: 20 passningar, xT -0.11ScherhantCyriaque Irie: 14 passningar, xT 0Irie
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Paderborn
    Mattes Hansen: 53 passningar, xT 0.03HansenTjark Scheller: 50 passningar, xT 0.05SchellerGabriel Vidović: 45 passningar, xT 0.02VidovićSantiago Castañeda: 41 passningar, xT 0.02CastañedaJano ter Horst: 39 passningar, xT 0.2HorstNahuel Nicolas Noll: 33 passningar, xT 0.04NollRaphael Obermair: 27 passningar, xT 0.32ObermairLaurin Curda: 24 passningar, xT 0.37CurdaLaurin Ulrich: 20 passningar, xT -0.06UlrichMarvin Pieringer: 17 passningar, xT 0.13PieringerStefano Marino: 14 passningar, xT -0.03Marino
    Freiburg
    Matthias Ginter: 65 passningar, xT 0.23GinterPhilipp Lienhart: 58 passningar, xT 0.16LienhartMaximilian Eggestein: 49 passningar, xT 0.01EggesteinJordy Makengo: 46 passningar, xT 0MakengoMio Backhaus: 33 passningar, xT 0.03BackhausLukas Kübler: 32 passningar, xT 0.04KüblerYannik Engelhardt: 27 passningar, xT -0.04EngelhardtNiklas Beste: 23 passningar, xT 0.09BesteYuito Suzuki: 21 passningar, xT 0.01SuzukiDerry Scherhant: 20 passningar, xT -0.11ScherhantCyriaque Irie: 14 passningar, xT 0Irie

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePaderbornFreiburg
    Points13
    xPoints1.22
    xG per match0.982
    xGA per match1.40.62
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.66
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.19
    Playing stylePaderbornFreiburg
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.310.54
    xT per match1.31.2
    xTA per match1.90.38
    Won balls, offensive half1928
    Pressing intensity0.280.22
    Pressing efficiency0.310.2
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.160.11
    Entries into the box per match915
    Entries into the box against307
    Pass completion %0.780.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.79
    Passes per match387442
    Passes against per match398377
    Switches of play per match29.238.7
    Long balls per match3636
    Set piecesPaderbornFreiburg
    xG from free kicks00.37
    Corners per match26.1
    Corners against per match11.15.1
    xG per corner00.1
    xGA per corner against00.03
    First touch, offensive corners %00.17
    First touch, defensive corners %0.450.6
    OtherPaderbornFreiburg
    Throw-in control0.760.91
    The goalkeepersNahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn)Mio Backhaus (Freiburg)
    Saves42
    Save %100%67%
    xG prevented100%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Paderborn
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Freiburg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Paderborn vs Freiburg according to our model?

    The model gives Freiburg a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paderborn 32%, draw 25%, Freiburg 42%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.