OFI Crete vs Asteras Aktor: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League19 September 202614°1,8 mm10 km/h

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OFI CretePossession control

Asteras AktorPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · OFI Crete (44%)

1 · OFI Crete 44%X 27%29% Asteras Aktor · 2

44%

27%

29%

Analysis: OFI Crete – Asteras Aktor

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Asteras Aktor's current three-game losing streak casts a long shadow over their upcoming clash against OFI Crete. Both teams adopt a possession-oriented style, but the visitors are struggling to convert their control into points. In contrast, the hosts, while not overpowering, are more efficient in seizing opportunities, as evidenced by their recent points tally of six compared to Asteras's zero. The home side seems poised to dictate the tempo and edge out a slim advantage.

The model leans towards OFI Crete with a 44% probability of victory, supported by their expected goals of 1.43 against Asteras's 1.16. The numbers suggest a tight contest, with a nod towards the hosts. Despite the visitors' historical dominance in this fixture, having won four of the last six meetings, the recent form paints a different picture. Asteras's defensive vulnerability and inability to score underline a potential shift in this matchup's dynamics, favoring the hosts.

While this fixture has previously averaged a relatively high three goals per game, the forecast for this encounter suggests more caution. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 48%, slightly below the even mark. With both sides profiling similarly in possession play, goal-scoring opportunities may be limited, especially with Asteras's current struggles. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, but a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts (10%) seems the more compelling narrative given the circumstances.

From a betting perspective, the clearest value lies in backing OFI Crete. At odds of 2.27 (Bet365), the hosts present an appealing proposition against an Asteras side grappling with form. This assessment leans on both the statistical backing and the tangible drop in Asteras's recent performances.

OFI Crete

Form LWWLW

League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #11xP/match #8Points #6

Key players

Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Christos SielisCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
Giannis ApostolakisCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.05

Asteras Aktor

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #6xT #4xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Julian BartoloFxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Franz BrorssonCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Giannis BouzoukisCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: OFI Crete – Asteras Aktor

Predicted score matrix

Asteras Aktor →

OFI Crete →

0–07.8%

0–18.3%

0–25.1%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.3%

1–112.8%

1–27.2%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.6%

2–18.9%

2–25.2%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.6%

3–14.2%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,43–1,16

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

–

Over 2,548%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance OFI Crete or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance OFI Crete or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Thiago Thomas Nuss to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Thiago Thomas Nuss to score22%
Christos Almiras to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

OFI Crete 2Draw 0Asteras Aktor 4

Goals: 7–11 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Asteras Aktor dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Asteras Aktor have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

OFI Crete

Asteras Aktor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

OFI Crete (5–2)

Asteras Aktor (1–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

OFI Crete

Asteras Aktor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

OFI Crete

Asteras Aktor

The teams in numbers

Performance	OFI Crete	Asteras Aktor
Points	6	0
xPoints	3.8	2.9
xG per match	1.1	0.83
xGA per match	1.4	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.48	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.08

Playing style	OFI Crete	Asteras Aktor
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.42	0.64
xT per match	0.76	1.3
xTA per match	1	0.58
Won balls, offensive half	24	32
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.3
Entries into the box per match	8	17
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.82	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.7
Passes per match	421	367
Passes against per match	338	234
Switches of play per match	32.4	36.8
Long balls per match	41	50

Set pieces	OFI Crete	Asteras Aktor
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	2.3	4.3
Corners against per match	4.7	3.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.71	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.73

Other	OFI Crete	Asteras Aktor
Throw-in control	0.79	0.67

The goalkeepers	Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete)	Nikolaos Papadopoulos (Asteras Aktor)
Saves	12	7
Save %	86%	64%
xG prevented	93%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

OFI Crete

Fixtures, form & tips

Asteras Aktor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins OFI Crete vs Asteras Aktor according to our model?

The model gives OFI Crete a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFI Crete 44%, draw 27%, Asteras Aktor 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.