Greek Super League24°17 km/h

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    VolosVolosPossession control
    vs
    AEK AthensAEK AthensPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · AEK Athens (68%)

    Volos – AEK Athens · Greek Super League

    1 · Volos 12%X 20%68% AEK Athens · 2

    Analysis: Volos – AEK Athens

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: AEK Athens are riding a 27-match unbeaten streak in the league, a formidable backdrop to their visit to Volos. The model gives AEK a hefty 68% chance of victory, with Volos lagging significantly at 12%. This disparity is mirrored in expected goals, where the visitors project at 2.21 compared to the hosts' 0.82. The betting markets favor an AEK win, with the most likely scorelines pointing to a controlled 0-2 or 0-1 finish.

    Despite both teams employing possession control strategies, it's clear that AEK executes theirs with greater efficiency. The historical head-to-head is a small sample of four matches, but even there, AEK have dominated with three wins and a draw. This reinforces the model's lean towards an away win. Current form is overwhelmingly in AEK’s favor, further suggesting that Volos will struggle to break through a defense that concedes only 0.73 xGA per match.

    For value hunters, the model puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Given AEK's robust attack and Volos's vulnerable defense, backing a few goals in AEK's favor could pay off. However, the smart money stays on AEK's solid backline and form. Expect a professional, if understated, away victory.

    VolosVolos
    Form LLLDD
    League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #7xP/match #10Points #9
    Key players
    • Vasileios GrosdisCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
    • Maximiliano CombaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.04
    • Lazaros LamprouLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.24
    AEK AthensAEK Athens
    Form DDWDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Luka JovićFxG 0.43 · xT 0.05
    • Barnabás VargaFxG 0.47 · xT -0.03
    • Lovro MajerFxG 0.12 · xT 0.42

    Match prediction: Volos – AEK Athens

    Predicted score matrix

    AEK Athens →
    Volos →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.0%
    0–110.3%
    0–211.7%
    0–38.7%
    0–4+8.0%
    1
    1–03.7%
    1–19.0%
    1–29.7%
    1–37.1%
    1–4+6.6%
    2
    2–01.6%
    2–13.6%
    2–24.0%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+2.7%
    3
    3–00.4%
    3–11.0%
    3–21.1%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.1%
    4+–10.2%
    4+–20.3%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.0-212%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-210%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.0-39%
    Expected goals
    0,82–2,21
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,541%
    –
    Over 2,559%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • AEK Athens to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.71

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • AEK Athens to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Luka Jović to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Luka Jović to score39%
    • Ioannis Bouzoukis to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Volos 0Draw 1AEK Athens 3
    Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • AEK Athens are unbeaten in their last 27 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Volos
    AEK Athens
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Volos (2–4)
    AEK Athens (10–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Volos
    Giannis Kargas: 107 passningar, xT 0.08KargasHatim Essaoubi: 99 passningar, xT 0.15EssaoubiKeidi Bare: 80 passningar, xT 0.07BareMarios Siampanis: 72 passningar, xT 0.06SiampanisHamza Mendyl: 66 passningar, xT 0.23MendylGeorgios Mygas: 63 passningar, xT 0.28MygasJorge Samuel Figueiredo Fernandes: 56 passningar, xT -0.02FernandesVasileios Grosdis: 55 passningar, xT 0.03GrosdisMaximiliano Comba: 50 passningar, xT 0.08CombaMatías Nahuel González: 49 passningar, xT 0.12GonzálezLazaros Lamprou: 48 passningar, xT 0.45Lamprou
    AEK Athens
    Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira: 210 passningar, xT 0.31OliveiraHarold Moukoudi: 189 passningar, xT 0.53MoukoudiRăzvan Gabriel Marin: 174 passningar, xT 0.32MarinMilán Vitális: 164 passningar, xT 0.22VitálisLazaros Rota: 139 passningar, xT 0.09RotaStavros Pilios: 121 passningar, xT 0.14PiliosLovro Majer: 99 passningar, xT 0.61MajerThomas Strakosha: 72 passningar, xT 0.08StrakoshaMijat Gacinovic: 47 passningar, xT 0.65GacinovicLuka Jović: 42 passningar, xT 0.07JovićOleksandr Zubkov: 40 passningar, xT 0.5Zubkov
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Volos
    Giannis Kargas: 107 passningar, xT 0.08KargasHatim Essaoubi: 99 passningar, xT 0.15EssaoubiKeidi Bare: 80 passningar, xT 0.07BareMarios Siampanis: 72 passningar, xT 0.06SiampanisHamza Mendyl: 66 passningar, xT 0.23MendylGeorgios Mygas: 63 passningar, xT 0.28MygasJorge Samuel Figueiredo Fernandes: 56 passningar, xT -0.02FernandesVasileios Grosdis: 55 passningar, xT 0.03GrosdisMaximiliano Comba: 50 passningar, xT 0.08CombaMatías Nahuel González: 49 passningar, xT 0.12GonzálezLazaros Lamprou: 48 passningar, xT 0.45Lamprou
    AEK Athens
    Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira: 210 passningar, xT 0.31OliveiraHarold Moukoudi: 189 passningar, xT 0.53MoukoudiRăzvan Gabriel Marin: 174 passningar, xT 0.32MarinMilán Vitális: 164 passningar, xT 0.22VitálisLazaros Rota: 139 passningar, xT 0.09RotaStavros Pilios: 121 passningar, xT 0.14PiliosLovro Majer: 99 passningar, xT 0.61MajerThomas Strakosha: 72 passningar, xT 0.08StrakoshaMijat Gacinovic: 47 passningar, xT 0.65GacinovicLuka Jović: 42 passningar, xT 0.07JovićOleksandr Zubkov: 40 passningar, xT 0.5Zubkov

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVolosAEK Athens
    Points27
    xPoints3.25.3
    xG per match0.942.3
    xGA per match1.20.73
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.82
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.05
    Playing styleVolosAEK Athens
    Build-up efficiency0.30.34
    Field tilt0.570.6
    xT per match0.881.5
    xTA per match0.380.64
    Won balls, offensive half2531
    Pressing intensity0.210.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.24
    Entries into the box per match914
    Entries into the box against88
    Pass completion %0.740.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.77
    Passes per match278478
    Passes against per match322278
    Switches of play per match25.934.1
    Long balls per match2939
    Set piecesVolosAEK Athens
    xG from free kicks0.170.22
    Corners per match1.33
    Corners against per match5.21.7
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030
    First touch, offensive corners %0.750.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.8
    OtherVolosAEK Athens
    Throw-in control0.710.71
    The goalkeepersMarios Siampanis (Volos)Thomas Strakosha (AEK Athens)
    Saves35
    Save %50%83%
    xG prevented11%81%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Volos
    Fixtures, form & tips
    AEK Athens
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Volos vs AEK Athens according to our model?

    The model gives AEK Athens a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volos 12%, draw 20%, AEK Athens 68%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.