01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Tokyo or draw (X2)72%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
J1 League15°18 km/h
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Fagiano OkayamaPossession & high pressvs
FC TokyoBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · FC Tokyo (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.83 (+7 %)
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo · J1 League
1 · Fagiano Okayama 27%X 29%43% FC Tokyo · 2
27%
29%
43%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo (J1 League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Fagiano Okayama win 27%, draw 29%, FC Tokyo win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Fagiano Okayama 1.00, FC Tokyo 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Fagiano Okayama or draw 57%, FC Tokyo or draw 73%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Fagiano Okayama and FC Tokyo have split their two meetings since 2023: 1W 0D 1L for Okayama. That is symmetry, not an edge. The head-to-head sample is small and weighs less than form and expected goals. The table points more firmly toward the visitors, 27 points to 16, while xPoints read 22.0 to 18.2.
Tokyo are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches. Their 2.0 xG per match is markedly stronger than the hosts’ 1.1, and the model makes the visitors 43% to win, against 27% for Okayama and 29% for the draw. That is the direction of travel: FC Tokyo are the better side and the analysis points to an away lean. Still, this is not a match to dress up as a straightforward road win. Okayama’s 0.97 xGA per match beats Tokyo’s 0.99, a slim defensive-process edge that matters in a low-scoring projection.
The hosts’ possession & high press can force territory, but Tokyo’s balanced & physical profile is better suited to surviving pressure than their price may suggest. Expected goals sit at Fagiano 1.00 and FC Tokyo 1.34. That is not a big attacking mismatch; it is a narrow advantage for the visitors inside a restrained total. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, followed by 0-1 at 12% and 0-0 at 10%. My score call is 1-1, even with FC Tokyo holding the stronger win case.
The over/under 2.5 lean is plainly under: over 2.5 lands at only 41%, while both teams to score is 47%. LeoVegas offers under 2.5 at 1.75, assessed as EV+ by the model at 59% with a 2% edge. Under 3.5 at 1.286 is also rated 79% with a 2% edge, while under 1.5 at 3.2 carries a 32% model probability and the same 2% edge. Under 2.5 at 1.75 is the sharpest angle.
Fagiano OkayamaForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #14xGA #2xT #10xP/match #5Points #10
Key players
- Hiroshi OmoriCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
- Oberdan Alionço de LimaCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
- Yoshitake SuzukiCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.11
FC TokyoForm WWWDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Takahiro KoCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
- Kento HashimotoCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
- Motoki NagakuraFxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo
Predicted score matrix
FC Tokyo →
Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.0%
0–112.5%
0–28.6%
0–33.8%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–09.3%
1–113.3%
1–28.6%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–04.9%
2–16.5%
2–24.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–01.6%
3–12.2%
3–21.5%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
1,00–1,34
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.83EV+5%
Over 2,541%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Tokyo or draw (X2)72%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos Santos to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Marcelo Ryan Silvestre dos Santos to score27%
- Takahiro Ko to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.559% probability@1.83LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- Under 1.532% probability@3.35LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.559% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fagiano Okayama | X | 2 · FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.45 | 3.15 | 2.05 |
| LeoVegas | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | 3.45 | 3.15 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 19:36
Odds movement
1-3 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.35
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.25 → 3.25
2+3 %
47 %42 %
2.02 → 2.08
Over 2,5-5 %
50 %45 %
1.98 → 1.88
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFagiano Okayama 1Draw 0FC Tokyo 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FC Tokyo are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fagiano Okayama
FC Tokyo
Fagiano Okayama (15–17)
FC Tokyo (27–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fagiano Okayama
FC Tokyo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fagiano Okayama
FC Tokyo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fagiano Okayama | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 27 |
| xPoints | 18.2 | 22 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Fagiano Okayama | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 272 | 419 |
| Passes against per match | 375 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.1 | 28.5 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Fagiano Okayama | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.2 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| Other | Fagiano Okayama | FC Tokyo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Lennart Franklin Moser (Fagiano Okayama) | Seung-Gyu Kim (FC Tokyo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 20 |
| Save % | 60% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka31 October 2026
- Mito Hollyhock – Sanfrecce Hiroshima31 October 2026
- Vissel Kobe – Nagoya Grampus31 October 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Shimizu S-Pulse31 October 2026
- Kashiwa Reysol – Urawa Reds31 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Gamba Osaka1 November 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Tokyo Verdy1 November 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Avispa Fukuoka1 November 2026
- Yokohama F. Marinos – Kawasaki Frontale1 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo according to our model?
The model gives FC Tokyo a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fagiano Okayama 27%, draw 29%, FC Tokyo 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo?
The model expects 1.00 goals (xG) for Fagiano Okayama and 1.34 for FC Tokyo, 2.34 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fagiano Okayama or draw (1X) 57%, FC Tokyo or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.