Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Reds Prediction: Home win 49% (31 Oct 2026)

J1 League31 October 2026Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa15°10 km/h

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Kashiwa ReysolBalanced & physical

Urawa RedsPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Kashiwa Reysol (49%)

1 · Kashiwa Reysol 49%X 25%26% Urawa Reds · 2

49%

25%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Reds (J1 League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Kashiwa Reysol win 49%, draw 25%, Urawa Reds win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Kashiwa Reysol 1.75, Urawa Reds 1.22. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Kashiwa Reysol or draw 74%, Urawa Reds or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Kashiwa Reysol – Urawa Reds

Sofia Andersson · 26 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Three wins from four since 2023 gives Kashiwa Reysol the head-to-head edge over Urawa Reds: 3W, 0D and 1L across four matches. That is a small sample and weighs less than current form and expected goals, but it does describe a matchup the hosts have handled more often than not. The 25-to-21 points advantage reinforces the home case; it does not erase the visitors’ current 3 straight wins.

Underlying return pushes back. Urawa carry 17.0 xPoints to Kashiwa’s 16.3, and xGA per match is 1.4 versus 1.4, with the edge assigned to the visitors. Their possession and high press should test Kashiwa’s balanced, physical profile. Yet the hosts create the cleaner immediate transition threat: 0.27 xG within 8s of winning the ball against 0.2. Against a pressing side, that split matters.

The model still lands on Kashiwa: 49% home, 25% draw and 26% away. Its projected chance quality is 1.75 xG to 1.22, a gap that says the hosts are the stronger side even while Urawa’s streak deserves respect. The most likely exact score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%. My read is that Kashiwa have the better match, with 2-1 the practical call rather than treating the single most likely scoreline as a verdict.

Goals lean over rather than under: Over 2.5 is 57%, while both teams to score is 59%. Those numbers fit the tactical picture, but the margin is thin. The cleanest price is LeoVegas’s 2.1 on the home win. The model rates Kashiwa at 49%, an assessed 2% edge and EV+; home victory is the sharpest angle.

Kashiwa Reysol

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #7xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

Taiyo KogaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Daiki SugiokaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13

Urawa Reds

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #7

Key players

Takuro KanekoRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.45
Yuta MiyamotoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Ryoma WatanabeFxG 0.45 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Kashiwa Reysol – Urawa Reds

Predicted score matrix

Urawa Reds →

Kashiwa Reysol →

0–05.5%

0–16.0%

0–23.8%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–08.6%

1–111.3%

1–26.7%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.6%

2–25.9%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.6%

3–15.6%

3–23.4%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.0%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,75–1,22

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.25

Over 2,557%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Kashiwa Reysol to win49%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Kashiwa Reysol to win49%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Riki Harakawa to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Riki Harakawa to score28%
Koki Kumasaka to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Kashiwa Reysol49% probability@2.10LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kashiwa Reysol	X	2 · Urawa Reds
Betsafe	2.05	3.45	3.10
LeoVegas	EV+ 2% 2.10	3.45	3.10
Nordicbet	2.05	3.45	3.10

Odds updated 26 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

47 %42 %

2.00 → 2.10

X-5 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.45

2-2 %

32 %27 %

3.15 → 3.10

Over 2,50 %

61 %56 %

1.57 → 1.57

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Kashiwa Reysol 3Draw 0Urawa Reds 1

Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Urawa Reds come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kashiwa Reysol

Urawa Reds

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kashiwa Reysol (25–19)

Urawa Reds (21–23)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kashiwa Reysol

Urawa Reds

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kashiwa Reysol

Urawa Reds

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kashiwa Reysol	Urawa Reds
Points	25	21
xPoints	16.3	17
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.16

Playing style	Kashiwa Reysol	Urawa Reds
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.61	0.62
xT per match	1.1	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	19	28
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.32
Entries into the box per match	16	14
Entries into the box against	11	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	495	350
Passes against per match	373	270
Switches of play per match	30.1	21.3
Long balls per match	31	28

Set pieces	Kashiwa Reysol	Urawa Reds
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	5.3	5.2
Corners against per match	4	4.2
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.88	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.81	0.61

Other	Kashiwa Reysol	Urawa Reds
Throw-in control	0.76	0.74

The goalkeepers	Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol)	Shusaku Nishikawa (Urawa Reds)
Saves	13	31
Save %	56%	60%
xG prevented	30%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kashiwa Reysol

Fixtures, form & tips

Urawa Reds

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Reds according to our model?

The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashiwa Reysol 49%, draw 25%, Urawa Reds 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa Reds?

The model expects 1.75 goals (xG) for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.22 for Urawa Reds, 2.97 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Kashiwa Reysol or draw (1X) 74%, Urawa Reds or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.