01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kashima Antlers to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
J1 LeagueKashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima17°18 km/h
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Kashima AntlersPossession controlvs
Cerezo OsakaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Kashima Antlers (58%)
Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka · J1 League
1 · Kashima Antlers 58%X 23%19% Cerezo Osaka · 2
58%
23%
19%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka (J1 League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Kashima Antlers win 58%, draw 23%, Cerezo Osaka win 19%. Expected goals (xG): Kashima Antlers 1.93, Cerezo Osaka 1.08. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Kashima Antlers or draw 81%, Cerezo Osaka or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Kashima Antlers’ control unit sets the terms here. Both sides profile as possession-control teams, but the hosts have been more productive and more secure inside that structure: 1.4 xG per match against Cerezo Osaka’s 1.0, and 1.1 xGA against the visitors’ 1.6. That is the central tactical gap. Kashima can keep the ball without losing their defensive shape; Cerezo have too often allowed opponents into better shooting positions once their first phase is bypassed.
The table supports the same direction without being the whole case. Kashima have 20 points to Cerezo’s 14, while expected points read 16.3 versus 13.1. The hosts have outperformed their underlying return more than the visitors, but the xPoints edge is still theirs. This is not merely a story of results. It is a matchup in which Kashima’s stronger chance creation meets a Cerezo defence giving up 1.6 xGA per game.
The danger for the hosts is that two possession sides can produce a slow, territorial match rather than a frantic one. Cerezo should have enough of the ball to register, and both teams to score sits at 57%. Kashima’s model xG of 1.93, however, is the figure that changes the texture: they are projected to create close to two goals even against an opponent likely to contest midfield possession. The model makes Kashima 58% winners, with the draw at 23% and Cerezo at 19%.
Since 2023, Kashima have dominated this fixture across 6 matches, posting 4W 1D 1L; framed another way, they hold 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings. That head-to-head record reinforces the lean, but it should not be confused with current form or the expected-goals evidence. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9%, yet the broader probability distribution still points toward a home win.
My read is Kashima to win, with 2-1 the practical score call. Over 2.5 goals has a 58% lean, and that is the sharper angle: Kashima’s 1.93 projected xG gives the over its route even if Cerezo’s possession keeps the contest balanced for long spells.
Kashima AntlersForm DWWDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #2xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.14 · xT 0.04
- Ikuma SekigawaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Leo CearaFxG 0.63 · xT 0.15
Cerezo OsakaForm DDLDD
League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #12xP/match #18Points #13
Key players
- Jackson Alexander IrvineCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
- Hayato OkudaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
- Dion-Johan Chai CoolsCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka
Predicted score matrix
Cerezo Osaka →
Kashima Antlers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–15.0%
0–22.9%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.2%
1–110.6%
1–25.5%
1–32.0%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.9%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.9%
3–16.4%
3–23.4%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.4%
4+–14.8%
4+–22.6%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,93–1,08
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.30
Over 2,558%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kashima Antlers to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score33%
- Jackson Alexander Irvine to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kashima Antlers | X | 2 · Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Nordicbet | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
56 %51 %
1.70 → 1.73
X-1 %
27 %22 %
3.85 → 3.80
20 %
25 %20 %
4.10 → 4.10
Over 2,5-2 %
62 %57 %
1.58 → 1.55
LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesKashima Antlers 4Draw 1Cerezo Osaka 1
Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Kashima Antlers dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- Kashima Antlers win 57% of their home matches all-time (61 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kashima Antlers
Cerezo Osaka
Kashima Antlers (25–21)
Cerezo Osaka (12–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kashima Antlers
Cerezo Osaka
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kashima Antlers
Cerezo Osaka
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kashima Antlers | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 14 |
| xPoints | 16.3 | 13.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Kashima Antlers | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 463 | 386 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 328 |
| Switches of play per match | 30.3 | 23.4 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Kashima Antlers | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| Other | Kashima Antlers | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers) | Kosuke Nakamura (Cerezo Osaka) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 31 |
| Save % | 64% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Mito Hollyhock – Sanfrecce Hiroshima31 October 2026
- Vissel Kobe – Nagoya Grampus31 October 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Shimizu S-Pulse31 October 2026
- Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo31 October 2026
- Kashiwa Reysol – Urawa Reds31 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Gamba Osaka1 November 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Tokyo Verdy1 November 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Avispa Fukuoka1 November 2026
- Yokohama F. Marinos – Kawasaki Frontale1 November 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka according to our model?
The model gives Kashima Antlers a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashima Antlers 58%, draw 23%, Cerezo Osaka 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kashima Antlers vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model expects 1.93 goals (xG) for Kashima Antlers and 1.08 for Cerezo Osaka, 3.01 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kashima Antlers or draw (1X) 81%, Cerezo Osaka or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.