J1 LeaguePeace Stadium, Nagasaki19°2,0 mm30 km/h

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    V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen NagasakiCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo VerdyLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · V-Varen Nagasaki (54%)

    V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy · J1 League

    1 · V-Varen Nagasaki 54%X 26%20% Tokyo Verdy · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy (J1 League, Sunday, 1 November 2026): V-Varen Nagasaki win 54%, draw 26%, Tokyo Verdy win 20%. Expected goals (xG): V-Varen Nagasaki 1.54, Tokyo Verdy 0.99. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: V-Varen Nagasaki or draw 80%, Tokyo Verdy or draw 46%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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    Analysis: V-Varen Nagasaki – Tokyo Verdy

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    TEXT: A clash between contrasting styles, V-Varen Nagasaki's counter-attacks and crosses face off against Tokyo Verdy's low block and direct approach. With the hosts holding a 54% probability of victory, the numbers suggest a modest edge for Nagasaki. Their current form, backed by 12 points compared to Verdy's 5, adds weight to the analysis.

    Nagasaki's expected goals (xG) of 1.54 against Tokyo's 0.99 reflect this advantage. Yet, the most likely scorelines, 1-1 at 13% and 1-0 at 12%, hint at a possible low-scoring affair. With a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, the anticipated defensive setups could keep the tally down, aligning with the tight model forecast.

    The hosts’ xG per match of 1.2 further underscores their attacking potential compared to Verdy's 0.86. Nagasaki's superior xPoints of 13.5 versus Verdy’s 11.3 confirm their efficiency in converting chances. Defensively, Nagasaki concedes 1.5 xGA per match, slightly better than Verdy’s 1.7, fortifying their status as favorites.

    For bettors seeking value, Nagasaki’s win stands out, capitalizing on their form and tactical edge. The likelihood of a 1-0 victory seems plausible, appealing to those who prefer calculated, data-driven wagers over chasing unlikely upsets.

    V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen Nagasaki
    Form WDDLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #13xT #12xP/match #14Points #14
    Key players
    • Matheus JesusFxG 0.43 · xT 0.36
    • Motoki HasegawaCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
    • Hotaru YamaguchiCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy
    Form DLLLD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #18xP/match #19Points #20
    Key players
    • Shuhei MizoguchiLWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
    • Maaya SakoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
    • Kazuya MiyaharaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki – Tokyo Verdy

    Predicted score matrix

    Tokyo Verdy →
    V-Varen Nagasaki →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–17.6%
    0–23.9%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–012.0%
    1–112.5%
    1–26.0%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.5%
    2–19.3%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.9%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–12.6%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,54–0,99
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.67
    Over 2,546%
    @2.10

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • V-Varen Nagasaki to win54%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • V-Varen Nagasaki to win54%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Ryogo Yamasaki to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Ryogo Yamasaki to score28%
    • Rei Hirakawa to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · V-Varen Nagasaki54% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
    • 1 · V-Varen Nagasaki54% probability@2.38NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
    • 1 · V-Varen Nagasaki54% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+27%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · V-Varen NagasakiX2 · Tokyo Verdy
    Betsafe
    EV+ 29%
    2.38    		3.052.90
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 27%
    2.35    		3.152.88
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 29%
    2.38    		3.052.90

    Odds updated 26 Oct, 16:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Tokyo Verdy win since 25 October — the odds have shortened from 3.15 to 2.88 (−9%).

    1+8 %
    43 %38 %

    2.18 → 2.35

    X0 %
    32 %27 %

    3.15 → 3.15

    2-9 %
    33 %28 %

    3.15 → 2.88

    Over 2,5+1 %
    47 %42 %

    2.05 → 2.08

    LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Tokyo Verdy
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    V-Varen Nagasaki (15–18)
    Tokyo Verdy (6–20)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Motoki Hasegawa: 232 passningar, xT 0.54HasegawaHotaru Yamaguchi: 185 passningar, xT 0.45YamaguchiIkki Arai: 145 passningar, xT 0.14AraiShunya Yoneda: 123 passningar, xT 0.44YonedaMatheus Jesus: 123 passningar, xT 1.55JesusKanta Doi: 119 passningar, xT 0.12DoiRiku Yamada: 89 passningar, xT 0.07YamadaRyosuke Shindo: 87 passningar, xT 0.06ShindoMasaaki Goto: 81 passningar, xT 0.16GotoYusei Egawa: 80 passningar, xT 0.17EgawaTakuma Ominami: 71 passningar, xT 0.35Ominami
    Tokyo Verdy
    Naoki Hayashi: 128 passningar, xT 0.15HayashiRei Hirakawa: 106 passningar, xT 0.02HirakawaKosuke Saito: 105 passningar, xT 0.1SaitoYuta Arai: 98 passningar, xT 0.4AraiShuhei Mizoguchi: 97 passningar, xT 1.09MizoguchiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 97 passningar, xT 0.23OliveriaKaito Suzuki: 94 passningar, xT 0.18SuzukiShogo Sasaki: 75 passningar, xT 0.1SasakiKanya Fujimoto: 51 passningar, xT -0.1FujimotoItsuki Someno: 47 passningar, xT 0.13SomenoYuya Fukuda: 43 passningar, xT 0.13Fukuda
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Motoki Hasegawa: 232 passningar, xT 0.54HasegawaHotaru Yamaguchi: 185 passningar, xT 0.45YamaguchiIkki Arai: 145 passningar, xT 0.14AraiShunya Yoneda: 123 passningar, xT 0.44YonedaMatheus Jesus: 123 passningar, xT 1.55JesusKanta Doi: 119 passningar, xT 0.12DoiRiku Yamada: 89 passningar, xT 0.07YamadaRyosuke Shindo: 87 passningar, xT 0.06ShindoMasaaki Goto: 81 passningar, xT 0.16GotoYusei Egawa: 80 passningar, xT 0.17EgawaTakuma Ominami: 71 passningar, xT 0.35Ominami
    Tokyo Verdy
    Naoki Hayashi: 128 passningar, xT 0.15HayashiRei Hirakawa: 106 passningar, xT 0.02HirakawaKosuke Saito: 105 passningar, xT 0.1SaitoYuta Arai: 98 passningar, xT 0.4AraiShuhei Mizoguchi: 97 passningar, xT 1.09MizoguchiMatheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria: 97 passningar, xT 0.23OliveriaKaito Suzuki: 94 passningar, xT 0.18SuzukiShogo Sasaki: 75 passningar, xT 0.1SasakiKanya Fujimoto: 51 passningar, xT -0.1FujimotoItsuki Someno: 47 passningar, xT 0.13SomenoYuya Fukuda: 43 passningar, xT 0.13Fukuda

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceV-Varen NagasakiTokyo Verdy
    Points125
    xPoints13.511.3
    xG per match1.20.86
    xGA per match1.51.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.13
    Playing styleV-Varen NagasakiTokyo Verdy
    Build-up efficiency0.320.28
    Field tilt0.320.27
    xT per match0.920.74
    xTA per match0.991.4
    Won balls, offensive half2123
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.23
    Entries into the box per match1010
    Entries into the box against1717
    Pass completion %0.750.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.65
    Passes per match339268
    Passes against per match464462
    Switches of play per match14.812.1
    Long balls per match2325
    Set piecesV-Varen NagasakiTokyo Verdy
    xG from free kicks0.030.03
    Corners per match3.83.6
    Corners against per match5.16
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.6
    OtherV-Varen NagasakiTokyo Verdy
    Throw-in control0.720.7
    The goalkeepersMasaaki Goto (V-Varen Nagasaki)Matheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria (Tokyo Verdy)
    Saves3435
    Save %69%64%
    xG prevented39%42%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    V-Varen Nagasaki
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tokyo Verdy
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy according to our model?

    The model gives V-Varen Nagasaki a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: V-Varen Nagasaki 54%, draw 26%, Tokyo Verdy 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?

    The model expects 1.54 goals (xG) for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.99 for Tokyo Verdy, 2.52 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1X) 80%, Tokyo Verdy or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.