Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction: Home win 37% (25 Oct 2026)

J1 League25 October 2026Toyota Stadium, Toyota19°20,1 mm4 km/h

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Nagoya GrampusPossession control

Yokohama F. MarinosPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nagoya Grampus (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.98 (+4 %)

1 · Nagoya Grampus 37%X 27%36% Yokohama F. Marinos · 2

37%

27%

36%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos (J1 League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Nagoya Grampus win 37%, draw 27%, Yokohama F. Marinos win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Nagoya Grampus 1.25, Yokohama F. Marinos 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Nagoya Grampus or draw 64%, Yokohama F. Marinos or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Nagoya Grampus – Yokohama F. Marinos

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A 36% win probability for the Yokohama F. Marinos underscores a razor-thin margin in this clash with Nagoya Grampus, who have a slight 37% edge according to the model. Both teams excel in possession control, promising a tactical battle. The 1-1 scoreline leads the probabilities at 13%, suggesting a tight contest. Despite Nagoya's historical edge in this fixture, the small sample of six matches diminishes its weight compared to current form, where Yokohama are unbeaten in their last six league games.

Expected goals (xG) hint at a narrow advantage for the visitors, with Yokohama's xG of 1.33 outstripping Nagoya's 1.25. Defensive metrics tilt similarly, with Nagoya conceding more on average. The over 2.5 goals market sits just under a coin flip at 48%, reflecting a cautious outcome expectation. The anticipated rain could further suppress scoring, aligning with the model's numbers.

With odds and probabilities offering no clear advantage, the standout angle lies in a potential value bet. A draw at 27% probability offers intrigue, but the sharper insight may be in backing Nagoya Grampus to exploit their slight model edge and history at home. While this fixture seems poised for a low-scoring draw, the modeled lean towards Nagoya offers a calculated risk for the discerning bettor.

Nagoya Grampus

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #9xP/match #18Points #12

Key players

Haruya FujiiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Sho InagakiCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
Katsuhiro NakayamaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10

Yokohama F. Marinos

Form WDWDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #16xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Jeison QuinonesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Riku YamaneFxG 0.10 · xT 0.04
Tomoki KondoRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Nagoya Grampus – Yokohama F. Marinos

Predicted score matrix

Yokohama F. Marinos →

Nagoya Grampus →

0–07.9%

0–19.7%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.1%

1–113.0%

1–28.4%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.9%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.3%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,25–1,33

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.98EV+4%

Over 2,548%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Nagoya Grampus or draw (1X)62%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Nagoya Grampus or draw (1X)62%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Yudai Kimura to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Yudai Kimura to score20%
Jeison Estiven Quiñónes Botina to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.552% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@1.98LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nagoya Grampus	X	2 · Yokohama F. Marinos
Betsafe	2.35	3.40	2.72
LeoVegas	2.35	3.45	2.75
Nordicbet	2.35	3.40	2.72

Odds updated 23 Oct, 07:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

42 %37 %

2.38 → 2.35

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.45

2+6 %

37 %32 %

2.60 → 2.75

Over 2,5-1 %

55 %50 %

1.75 → 1.73

LeoVegas · 16 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Nagoya Grampus 3Draw 2Yokohama F. Marinos 1

Goals: 9–7 (⌀ 2,7)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Nagoya Grampus dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
Yokohama F. Marinos are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nagoya Grampus

Yokohama F. Marinos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nagoya Grampus (12–16)

Yokohama F. Marinos (13–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nagoya Grampus

Yokohama F. Marinos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nagoya Grampus

Yokohama F. Marinos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama F. Marinos
Points	12	16
xPoints	10.3	15
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.21

Playing style	Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama F. Marinos
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.54	0.47
xT per match	1	0.82
xTA per match	0.97	1
Won balls, offensive half	26	27
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	10
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.69
Passes per match	437	303
Passes against per match	323	319
Switches of play per match	33.1	21
Long balls per match	39	29

Set pieces	Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama F. Marinos
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.05
Corners per match	5	3.7
Corners against per match	4.2	5.3
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.24
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.66

Other	Nagoya Grampus	Yokohama F. Marinos
Throw-in control	0.75	0.64

The goalkeepers	Alexandre Pisano (Nagoya Grampus)	Hiroki Iikura (Yokohama F. Marinos)
Saves	19	12
Save %	68%	86%
xG prevented	47%	76%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nagoya Grampus

Fixtures, form & tips

Yokohama F. Marinos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos according to our model?

The model gives Nagoya Grampus a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nagoya Grampus 37%, draw 27%, Yokohama F. Marinos 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

The model expects 1.25 goals (xG) for Nagoya Grampus and 1.33 for Yokohama F. Marinos, 2.58 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Nagoya Grampus or draw (1X) 64%, Yokohama F. Marinos or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.