01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Kashima Antlers or draw (1X)66%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
J1 LeagueKashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima19°5,6 mm10 km/h
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Kashima AntlersBalanced & physicalvs
Kashiwa ReysolBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Kashima Antlers (44%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.82 (+9 %)
Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol · J1 League
1 · Kashima Antlers 44%X 26%30% Kashiwa Reysol · 2
44%
26%
30%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol (J1 League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Kashima Antlers win 44%, draw 26%, Kashiwa Reysol win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Kashima Antlers 1.67, Kashiwa Reysol 1.48. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Kashima Antlers or draw 70%, Kashiwa Reysol or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kashima Antlers – Kashiwa Reysol
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Kashima Antlers have the historical edge in this fixture, boasting three wins to Kashiwa Reysol's one over their last six encounters. However, with such a small sample size, it's wise not to let the head-to-head record overshadow current form and expected goals data. Both teams enter this clash with similar profiles, each known for a balanced and physical playing style, which makes for an intriguing tactical showdown.
Analyzing current form, Reysol hold a slight advantage with 21 points compared to Antlers’ 19. The expected points mirror this, with Reysol again edging ahead at 14.1 to Antlers’ 12.7. Yet, the model still leans toward a home win for Kashima, assigning them a 44% probability compared to Reysol's 30%. This suggests that while Reysol have been slightly more consistent, Antlers’ home advantage shouldn't be underestimated — they win 58% of their home games historically.
In terms of expected goals, it's a tight contest. Kashima Antlers are expected to score 1.67 goals, slightly more than Kashiwa Reysol's 1.48. This aligns with the most likely scorelines provided by the model: 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2. The high probability of over 2.5 goals at 61% suggests we might see a few goals, and both teams are expected to find the back of the net, supported by a 63% chance for both teams to score.
For bettors, the value lies in the odds. Kashiwa Reysol at 3.40 with Bet365 presents an attractive risk-versus-reward scenario when combined with their current points edge. But remember, the model's lean towards Kashima cannot be ignored, making it a fascinating matchup for both fans and punters alike.
Kashima AntlersForm LLDWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #3xP/match #13Points #6
Key players
- Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
- Ikuma SekigawaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
- Leo CearaFxG 0.69 · xT 0.16
Kashiwa ReysolForm LWWWL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #7xP/match #10Points #5
Key players
- Taiyo KogaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
- Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Daiki SugiokaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Kashima Antlers – Kashiwa Reysol
Predicted score matrix
Kashiwa Reysol →
Kashima Antlers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.6%
0–16.0%
0–24.7%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–06.8%
1–110.9%
1–27.8%
1–33.9%
1–4+2.0%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.8%
2–26.5%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.9%
3–23.6%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–13.0%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,67–1,48
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@2.00
Over 2,561%
@1.75EV+7%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Kashima Antlers or draw (1X)66%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score31%
- Nobuteru Nakagawa to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.539% probability@2.82BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- Over 3.539% probability@2.82NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
- Over 3.539% probability@2.80LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kashima Antlers | X | 2 · Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| LeoVegas | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Nordicbet | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 2.30 | 3.51 | 2.99 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 08:19
Odds movement
1+1 %
44 %39 %
2.28 → 2.30
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.43 → 3.51
2-3 %
34 %29 %
3.09 → 2.99
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesKashima Antlers 3Draw 2Kashiwa Reysol 1
Goals: 9–6 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Kashima Antlers dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- Kashima Antlers win 58% of their home matches all-time (60 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kashima Antlers
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashima Antlers (21–16)
Kashiwa Reysol (22–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kashima Antlers
Kashiwa Reysol
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kashima Antlers
Kashiwa Reysol
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kashima Antlers | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 21 |
| xPoints | 12.7 | 14.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Kashima Antlers | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 446 | 521 |
| Passes against per match | 311 | 341 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.3 | 32.2 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Kashima Antlers | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 3.5 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.88 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.82 |
| Other | Kashima Antlers | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers) | Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 13 |
| Save % | 68% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Avispa Fukuoka – Gamba Osaka21 October 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Kashima Antlers21 October 2026
- Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy21 October 2026
- Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka21 October 2026
- Kawasaki Frontale – Vissel Kobe21 October 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 October 2026
- FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol21 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia21 October 2026
- Urawa Reds – JEF United Chiba21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol according to our model?
The model gives Kashima Antlers a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashima Antlers 44%, draw 26%, Kashiwa Reysol 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kashima Antlers vs Kashiwa Reysol?
The model expects 1.67 goals (xG) for Kashima Antlers and 1.48 for Kashiwa Reysol, 3.15 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kashima Antlers or draw (1X) 70%, Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.