01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win70%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
J1 LeaguePeace Stadium, Nagasaki22°1,6 mm12 km/h
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V-Varen NagasakiCounter-attacks & crosses4–0
Sanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (70%)Best value by the model: No @ 2.02 (+2 %)
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · J1 League
1 · V-Varen Nagasaki 12%X 18%70% Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 2
12%
18%
70%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): V-Varen Nagasaki win 12%, draw 18%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 70%. Expected goals (xG): V-Varen Nagasaki 0.81, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.16. Most likely score: 0-2 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: V-Varen Nagasaki or draw 30%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw 88%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
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Analysis: V-Varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Sanfrecce Hiroshima's formidable attack, averaging 2.5 expected goals per match, starkly contrasts with V-Varen Nagasaki's more modest 1.0. This disparity sets the stage for a potentially lopsided affair. Hiroshima comes in with a momentum that cannot be ignored: four consecutive victories, and for this match the model projects 2.16 expected goals for them. Meanwhile, Nagasaki's issues are compounded by a leaky defense conceding 1.5 expected goals per match.
With the model heavily favoring the visitors at a 70% win probability, Sanfrecce's high-pressing style is likely to suffocate V-Varen's counterattacks and crossing attempts. The expected 5.7 mm of rain might slow the pace, but it's already factored into the match projections. A 0-2 scoreline is the most likely outcome, with a 12% probability, while a 0-1 is just behind at 11%.
The hosts, with only 9 points and an xPoints tally of 10.8, are struggling to find cohesion. Their struggles are exacerbated by Sanfrecce Hiroshima’s defensive solidity, allowing just 0.56 xGA per match. In this context, it's no surprise that both teams to score is rated at just 49%. The over 2.5 goals market leans towards the over at 57%, suggesting Sanfrecce could cover this by themselves given their attacking prowess.
For bettors, the value is clear: Sanfrecce Hiroshima is a tempting proposition at odds of 1.45 across Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. The model's evaluation offers a slim but significant edge, rating their chances as 70%. While not a guarantee, this 1% margin is worth noting in a game that profiles as a straightforward away win. Expect the visitors to dominate, perhaps in a 0-2 victory, as they continue their impressive streak.
V-Varen NagasakiForm LWDDL
League ranking xG #17xGA #14xT #13xP/match #17Points #15
Key players
- Matheus JesusFxG 0.44 · xT 0.31
- Motoki HasegawaCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Hotaru YamaguchiCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
Sanfrecce HiroshimaForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.38
- Shuto NakanoCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.25
- Hayato ArakiCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Final score
4 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: V-Varen Nagasaki 12% · Draw 18% · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Sanfrecce HiroshimaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,09fair 5,21-22 %
MissMatchresultat - V-Varen NagasakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 23,72fair 36,86-36 %
MissMatch prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Predicted score matrix
Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
V-Varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–110.8%
0–212.0%
0–38.6%
0–4+7.7%
1
1–03.9%
1–19.3%
1–29.7%
1–37.0%
1–4+6.2%
2
2–01.7%
2–13.6%
2–23.9%
2–32.8%
2–4+2.5%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.0%
3–21.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-212%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.0-39%
Expected goals
0,81–2,16
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.25
Over 2,557%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win70%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Akito Suzuki to score42%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Akito Suzuki to score42%
- Hotaru Yamaguchi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Both teams to score: No51% probability@2.02BetMGM UKEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · V-Varen Nagasaki | X | 2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 6.75 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| Betsafe | 6.60 | 4.60 | 1.38 |
| LeoVegas | 6.75 | 4.80 | 1.38 |
| Nordicbet | 6.60 | 4.60 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 6.98 | 5.18 | 1.42 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 1.47 to 1.42 (−4%).
1+20 %
17 %12 %
5.82 → 6.98
X+9 %
21 %16 %
4.77 → 5.18
2-4 %
69 %64 %
1.47 → 1.42
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
V-Varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-Varen Nagasaki (11–18)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (25–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
V-Varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
V-Varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
The teams in numbers
| Performance | V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 23 |
| xPoints | 10.8 | 21.2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 2.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.56 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.55 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.72 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 22 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 355 | 482 |
| Passes against per match | 447 | 279 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.2 | 34.6 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 42 |
| Set pieces | V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| Other | V-Varen Nagasaki | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Masaaki Goto (V-Varen Nagasaki) | Issei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 15 |
| Save % | 67% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
- Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka21 October 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Kashima Antlers21 October 2026
- Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy21 October 2026
- Kawasaki Frontale – Vissel Kobe21 October 2026
- FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol21 October 2026
- Avispa Fukuoka – Gamba Osaka21 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima according to our model?
The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: V-Varen Nagasaki 12%, draw 18%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model expects 0.81 goals (xG) for V-Varen Nagasaki and 2.16 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 2.97 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1X) 30%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (X2) 88% and no draw (12) 82%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.