01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Vissel Kobe or draw (X2)71%
- Under 3.5 goals82%
J1 League20°0,1 mm19 km/h
Läs på svenska
Fagiano OkayamaPossession & high press0–3
Vissel KobeCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Vissel Kobe (42%)
Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe · J1 League
1 · Fagiano Okayama 26%X 32%42% Vissel Kobe · 2
26%
32%
42%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe (J1 League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Fagiano Okayama win 26%, draw 32%, Vissel Kobe win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Fagiano Okayama 0.98, Vissel Kobe 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Fagiano Okayama or draw 58%, Vissel Kobe or draw 74%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A clash of contrasting playing styles will shape the narrative when Fagiano Okayama hosts Vissel Kobe. The hosts' preference for possession and high pressing sets the stage for an intriguing battle against the visitors' counter-attacking and crossing game. It's a tactical chess match with the potential to be determined by who can impose their style more effectively. The model tips the balance towards Kobe, who have shown a slight edge in multiple facets.
Fagiano's 26% win probability and their xG per match of 1.0 suggest they may struggle to break down a well-organized Kobe defense. Meanwhile, the visitors, with a 42% chance of victory and a stronger xG per match of 1.6, are better positioned to capitalize on their chances. Despite Okayama’s slightly superior defensive metrics—0.89 xGA compared to Kobe’s 0.99—the overall numbers tilt in favor of the visiting team.
Head-to-head statistics, though limited with only two matches since 2023, favor Kobe, who won both contests. While this sample size is small and less impactful than current form and expected goals, it does add another layer of confidence for Kobe. The model's most likely scorelines—1-1, 0-1, and 0-0—reinforce the view of a tight affair, with goals expected to be at a premium.
For bettors, the standout angle lies in the total goals market. The probability of under 2.5 goals is 62%, providing value at odds of 1.7 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. With the style clash and historical data pointing towards a low-scoring game, under 2.5 goals offers a compelling opportunity to leverage the model's insights.
Fagiano OkayamaForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #17xGA #2xT #10xP/match #7Points #9
Key players
- Hiroshi OmoriCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
- Oberdan Alionço de LimaCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Soichiro MoriCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Vissel KobeForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #8xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Gotoku SakaiCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Matheus Soares ThulerCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
- Yuya OsakoFxG 0.62 · xT 0.01
Final score
0 – 3
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 26% · Draw 32% · Vissel Kobe 42%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Vissel KobeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,63fair 14,04-31 %
MissMatchresultat - Fagiano OkayamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,40fair 21,70-52 %
MissMatch prediction: Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe
Predicted score matrix
Vissel Kobe →
Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.4%
0–113.1%
0–28.3%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.6%
1–28.1%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–05.3%
2–16.5%
2–24.0%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–01.7%
3–12.1%
3–21.3%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-113%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.1-010%
- 5.0-28%
Expected goals
0,98–1,23
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
124%
227%
320%
411%
5+7%
Under 2,562%
@1.71EV+3%
Over 2,538%
@2.21
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Vissel Kobe or draw (X2)71%
- Under 2.5 goals62%
- Yuta Goke to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals38%
- Yuta Goke to score28%
- Eiji Miyamoto to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Vissel Kobe42% probability@2.54PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- 2 · Vissel Kobe42% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Vissel Kobe42% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fagiano Okayama | X | 2 · Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.75 | 3.00 | EV+ 7% 2.52 |
| LeoVegas | 2.75 | 3.10 | EV+ 6% 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.75 | 3.00 | EV+ 7% 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.95 | EV+ 5% 3.29 | EV+ 8% 2.54 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 08:16
Odds movement
10 %
36 %31 %
2.94 → 2.95
X+2 %
32 %27 %
3.23 → 3.29
2+2 %
39 %34 %
2.48 → 2.54
Over 2,5+5 %
47 %42 %
2.11 → 2.21
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFagiano Okayama 0Draw 0Vissel Kobe 2
Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
Fagiano Okayama (12–12)
Vissel Kobe (14–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fagiano Okayama | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 19 |
| xPoints | 14.1 | 14.9 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.89 | 0.99 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Fagiano Okayama | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.73 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 272 | 334 |
| Passes against per match | 381 | 319 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.2 | 25.2 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Fagiano Okayama | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.76 |
| Other | Fagiano Okayama | Vissel Kobe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Lennart Franklin Moser (Fagiano Okayama) | Shuichi Gonda (Vissel Kobe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 10 |
| Save % | 56% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 68% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga17 October 2026
- Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo17 October 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos17 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Gamba Osaka17 October 2026
- Mito Hollyhock – Urawa Reds17 October 2026
- Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus17 October 2026
- Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale17 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe according to our model?
The model gives Vissel Kobe a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fagiano Okayama 26%, draw 32%, Vissel Kobe 42%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe?
The model expects 0.98 goals (xG) for Fagiano Okayama and 1.23 for Vissel Kobe, 2.21 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Fagiano Okayama or draw (1X) 58%, Vissel Kobe or draw (X2) 74% and no draw (12) 68%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.