01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kashiwa Reysol to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
J1 LeagueSankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa19°6 km/h
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Kashiwa ReysolPossession control1–3
Nagoya GrampusPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Kashiwa Reysol (56%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.32 (+4 %)
Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus · J1 League
1 · Kashiwa Reysol 56%X 24%20% Nagoya Grampus · 2
56%
24%
20%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus (J1 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Kashiwa Reysol win 56%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Kashiwa Reysol 1.84, Nagoya Grampus 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Kashiwa Reysol or draw 80%, Nagoya Grampus or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Kashiwa Reysol's recent head-to-head record against Nagoya Grampus is actually slightly unfavorable, having secured just two wins against three losses (and one draw) in their last six meetings. This head-to-head trend, however, is outweighed by their current form and statistical supremacy this season. The home side is on a three-game winning streak, and the underlying metrics favor them considerably. Their expected goals (xG) per match stands at 1.6, compared to Nagoya's 1.1, underscoring a more potent attacking threat.
The model's probabilities tilt heavily in favor of the hosts, with a 56% chance of victory for Kashiwa compared to just 20% for the visitors. These numbers reflect the current gulf in form and performance levels. Kashiwa's expected goals against (xGA) per match is also lower, suggesting a more robust defensive setup. While both teams favor possession control, it's Kashiwa's superior execution of this style that could be the decisive factor.
With a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood of both teams scoring, the data suggests an open game. However, the most likely scorelines still indicate a tight contest, with the 1-1 draw (11%) and a 2-1 win for Kashiwa (10%) leading the probabilities. The model's forecast has already adjusted for style clashes, showing the home side's better conversion of possession into tangible threat.
For those seeking value, the draw at 4.2 with LeoVegas offers a slight edge over the model's 24% assessment, presenting a 1% expected value advantage. While this is not a massive edge, it's the sharpest line against a backdrop that clearly favors the hosts. Ultimately, a 2-1 victory for Kashiwa Reysol seems the most plausible outcome, with a nod towards the over 2.5 goals given the attacking profiles.
Kashiwa ReysolForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #5xP/match #8Points #1
Key players
- Taiyo KogaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
- Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Daiki SugiokaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Nagoya GrampusForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #9xP/match #19Points #15
Key players
- Haruya FujiiCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
- Sho InagakiCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
- Katsuhiro NakayamaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
Final score
1 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kashiwa Reysol 56% · Draw 24% · Nagoya Grampus 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Nagoya GrampusBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,68fair 12,97+13 %
HitMatchresultat - Kashiwa ReysolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,82fair 5,80-17 %
MissMatch prediction: Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus
Predicted score matrix
Nagoya Grampus →
Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–15.4%
0–23.5%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.3%
1–110.8%
1–26.5%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.9%
2–19.7%
2–25.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.8%
3–15.9%
3–23.6%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–03.4%
4+–14.1%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,84–1,23
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.19
Over 2,559%
@1.72EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kashiwa Reysol to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Yuki Kakita to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Yuki Kakita to score25%
- Sho Inagaki to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw24% probability@4.32PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
- Over 2.559% probability@1.72PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kashiwa Reysol | X | 2 · Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| LeoVegas | 1.64 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | EV+ 4% 4.32 | 4.90 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
1+3 %
61 %56 %
1.59 → 1.65
X0 %
24 %19 %
4.34 → 4.32
2-1 %
22 %17 %
4.93 → 4.90
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesKashiwa Reysol 2Draw 1Nagoya Grampus 3
Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 2,3)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Kashiwa Reysol come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kashiwa Reysol
Nagoya Grampus
Kashiwa Reysol (21–14)
Nagoya Grampus (9–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kashiwa Reysol
Nagoya Grampus
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kashiwa Reysol
Nagoya Grampus
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kashiwa Reysol | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 9 |
| xPoints | 13.3 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Kashiwa Reysol | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 524 | 450 |
| Passes against per match | 343 | 303 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.5 | 34 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Kashiwa Reysol | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.86 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| Other | Kashiwa Reysol | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol) | Alexandre Pisano (Nagoya Grampus) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 19 |
| Save % | 56% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 30% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Kashima Antlers – V-Varen Nagasaki17 October 2026
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga17 October 2026
- Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo17 October 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos17 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Gamba Osaka17 October 2026
- Mito Hollyhock – Urawa Reds17 October 2026
- Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale17 October 2026
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus according to our model?
The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashiwa Reysol 56%, draw 24%, Nagoya Grampus 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus?
The model expects 1.84 goals (xG) for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.23 for Nagoya Grampus, 3.07 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kashiwa Reysol or draw (1X) 80%, Nagoya Grampus or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.