01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kashima Antlers to win68%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
J1 LeagueKashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima20°16 km/h
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Kashima AntlersCounter-attacks & crosses2–0
V-Varen NagasakiCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Kashima Antlers (68%)
Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki · J1 League
1 · Kashima Antlers 68%X 18%15% V-Varen Nagasaki · 2
68%
18%
15%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki (J1 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Kashima Antlers win 68%, draw 18%, V-Varen Nagasaki win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Kashima Antlers 2.08, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.78. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 48%. Double chance: Kashima Antlers or draw 85%, V-Varen Nagasaki or draw 32%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Kashima Antlers – V-Varen Nagasaki
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The numbers tell a compelling story: Kashima Antlers are poised to dominate V-Varen Nagasaki. With a 68% probability favoring the hosts, the model leans heavily towards an Antlers victory. Expected goals tally at 2.08 for Kashima against a modest 0.78 for Nagasaki, hinting at a match where the home side's attacking prowess could shine brightly.
Kashima’s home form is formidable, winning 58% of their matches at their stadium. This historical strength bolsters their current edge, seen in both points (16 to Nagasaki’s 9) and expected points (10.9 to 9.8). The playing styles of both teams — favoring counter attacks and crosses — should see Kashima executing their strategies more effectively.
Two outcomes dominate the model’s predictions: a 2-0 or 1-0 victory for the Antlers, each sitting at a 12% likelihood. The over 2.5 goals likelihood is a slim majority at 55%, suggesting the match might not turn into a high-scoring affair, but the Antlers should find the back of the net more than once. Both teams to score sits at 48%, not quite tipping the scales in favor of Nagasaki breaching Kashima’s defenses.
The sharpest angle lies in the betting odds. With Kashima Antlers valued at odds of 1.49 to 1.5, the slight value edge is with LeoVegas, Betsafe, and Nordicbet. As the model rates the home win at 68%, there’s a 1% edge in taking these odds. It’s a subtle but meaningful boost for those keen on backing the Antlers to seal the deal.
Kashima AntlersForm LLLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #2xP/match #15Points #6
Key players
- Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
- Ikuma SekigawaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
- Leo CearaFxG 0.67 · xT 0.19
V-Varen NagasakiForm DLWDD
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #14xP/match #16Points #14
Key players
- Matheus JesusFxG 0.50 · xT 0.37
- Motoki HasegawaCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Hijiri OnagaLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Kashima Antlers 68% · Draw 18% · V-Varen Nagasaki 15%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Kashima AntlersBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,46fair 5,63-21 %
MissMatchresultat - V-Varen NagasakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 20,36fair 39,57-49 %
MissMatch prediction: Kashima Antlers – V-Varen Nagasaki
Predicted score matrix
V-Varen Nagasaki →
Kashima Antlers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–14.2%
0–21.7%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–011.6%
1–19.6%
1–23.6%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–012.4%
2–19.7%
2–23.8%
2–31.0%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.6%
3–16.7%
3–22.6%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–07.2%
4+–15.7%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.1-110%
- 5.3-09%
Expected goals
2,08–0,78
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.20
Over 2,555%
@1.71
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kashima Antlers to win68%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score41%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Leonardo de Sousa Pereira to score41%
- Hotaru Yamaguchi to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Kashima Antlers68% probability@1.50PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
- 1 · Kashima Antlers68% probability@1.48LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kashima Antlers | X | 2 · V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.47 | 4.15 | 5.70 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 0% 1.48 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| Nordicbet | 1.47 | 4.15 | 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 1% 1.50 | 4.55 | 6.53 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 08:18
Odds movement
1-1 %
66 %61 %
1.51 → 1.50
X+6 %
24 %19 %
4.30 → 4.55
2+10 %
18 %13 %
5.96 → 6.53
Over 2,5-2 %
58 %53 %
1.75 → 1.71
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Kashima Antlers win 58% of their home matches all-time (59 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kashima Antlers
V-Varen Nagasaki
Kashima Antlers (19–16)
V-Varen Nagasaki (11–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kashima Antlers
V-Varen Nagasaki
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kashima Antlers
V-Varen Nagasaki
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kashima Antlers | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 9 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 9.8 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.37 |
| Playing style | Kashima Antlers | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.33 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 0.7 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 450 | 346 |
| Passes against per match | 297 | 451 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.9 | 14 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Kashima Antlers | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| Other | Kashima Antlers | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers) | Masaaki Goto (V-Varen Nagasaki) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 29 |
| Save % | 66% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 32% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga17 October 2026
- Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo17 October 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos17 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Gamba Osaka17 October 2026
- Mito Hollyhock – Urawa Reds17 October 2026
- Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus17 October 2026
- Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale17 October 2026
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki according to our model?
The model gives Kashima Antlers a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kashima Antlers 68%, draw 18%, V-Varen Nagasaki 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The model expects 2.08 goals (xG) for Kashima Antlers and 0.78 for V-Varen Nagasaki, 2.86 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Kashima Antlers or draw (1X) 85%, V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (X2) 32% and no draw (12) 82%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.