J1 League20°12 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    JEF United ChibaJEF United ChibaLow block & direct
    0–0
    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. MarinosPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Yokohama F. Marinos (52%)

    JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos · J1 League

    1 · JEF United Chiba 22%X 25%52% Yokohama F. Marinos · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos (J1 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): JEF United Chiba win 22%, draw 25%, Yokohama F. Marinos win 52%. Expected goals (xG): JEF United Chiba 1.11, Yokohama F. Marinos 1.44. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: JEF United Chiba or draw 48%, Yokohama F. Marinos or draw 78%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: The numbers paint a clear picture: Yokohama F. Marinos are the favorites heading into their clash with JEF United Chiba. With a 52% probability of victory compared to the hosts' 22%, the model leans decidedly towards the visitors. Recent form supports this; Marinos are unbeaten in their last five league matches. Overall this season, Marinos have accumulated 15 points, while Chiba have only managed to collect 5 points, a stark contrast highlighting the gulf in class.

    Chiba's style of play is low defense and direct, which may struggle against Marinos' possession-heavy approach. Expected goals (xG) metrics provide further evidence of Marinos' superiority. While Chiba averages 1.1 xG per match, Marinos edge them out at 1.3. The defensive metrics tell a similar story, with Chiba conceding an average of 1.7 expected goals against (xGA) per match compared to Marinos' 1.3. This suggests that Chiba's defense could be vulnerable to Marinos' offensive capabilities.

    However, the most likely scorelines—1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), and 1-2 (9%)—indicate that while Marinos are favored, a narrow victory or a draw is also on the cards. The expected goals for both teams—1.11 for Chiba and 1.44 for Marinos—suggest a tightly contested match, with a slight lean towards the visitors. The over/under 2.5 goals probability is nearly even at 47%, indicating a balanced affair in terms of scoring.

    For punters looking for value, the away win at odds of 2.0 available with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet offers a 4% edge according to the model's 52% win probability. The chance to back Marinos at these odds represents a compelling opportunity as the numbers point to their continued dominance.

    JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba
    Form LWDLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #20xP/match #14Points #19
    Key players
    • Takashi KawanoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
    • Masaru HidakaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Taishi TaguchiCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos
    Form DWDWD
    League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #17xP/match #6Points #7
    Key players
    • Jeison QuinonesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
    • Tomoki KondoRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.20
    • Riku YamaneCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.05
    Final score
    0 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: JEF United Chiba 22% · Draw 25% · Yokohama F. Marinos 52%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - JEF United ChibaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,22fair 15,96-30 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Yokohama F MarinosBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,73fair 9,62-30 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos

    Predicted score matrix

    Yokohama F. Marinos →
    JEF United Chiba →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.2%
    0–110.9%
    0–28.1%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+1.9%
    1
    1–08.3%
    1–112.9%
    1–29.0%
    1–34.3%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–04.8%
    2–16.9%
    2–25.0%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–01.8%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.8%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,11–1,44
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,553%
    @1.97EV+5%
    Over 2,547%
    @1.90

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Yokohama F. Marinos to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    32%

    Fair odds

    3.14

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Yokohama F. Marinos to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Kaina Tanimura to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • Kaina Tanimura to score22%
    • Takuya Kida to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Yokohama F. Marinos52% probability@2.05LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Yokohama F. Marinos52% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
    • 2 · Yokohama F. Marinos52% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · JEF United ChibaX2 · Yokohama F. Marinos
    Betsafe3.403.30
    EV+ 5%
    2.02
    LeoVegas3.403.40
    EV+ 7%
    2.05
    Nordicbet3.403.30
    EV+ 5%
    2.02
    Pinnacle3.643.63
    EV+ 7%
    2.05

    Odds updated 17 Oct, 08:18

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.62 → 3.64

    X+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.60 → 3.63

    2+3 %
    49 %44 %

    1.99 → 2.05

    Over 2,5+4 %
    53 %48 %

    1.83 → 1.90

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Yokohama F. Marinos are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    JEF United Chiba
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    JEF United Chiba (8–19)
    Yokohama F. Marinos (13–9)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    JEF United Chiba
    Takashi Kawano: 140 passningar, xT 0.23KawanoMasaru Hidaka: 131 passningar, xT 0.14HidakaRikuto Ishio: 100 passningar, xT 0.28IshioDaniel Peter Olatunji Hall: 99 passningar, xT -0.01HallMatheus Salgueiro Pains: 92 passningar, xT 0.05PainsTakumi Tsukui: 83 passningar, xT 0.31TsukuiYusuke Kobayashi: 79 passningar, xT 0.25KobayashiDaichi Ishikawa: 77 passningar, xT 0IshikawaJose Aurelio Suarez: 70 passningar, xT 0.17SuarezKen Yamura: 69 passningar, xT 0.03YamuraTaishi Taguchi: 56 passningar, xT 0.13Taguchi
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    Jeison Quinones: 246 passningar, xT 0.27QuinonesKosei Suwama: 229 passningar, xT 0.3SuwamaHiroki Iikura: 156 passningar, xT 0.24IikuraRiku Yamane: 138 passningar, xT 0.18YamaneKosuke Matsumura: 124 passningar, xT 0.28MatsumuraTaisei Inoue: 109 passningar, xT 0.09InoueKei Chinen: 101 passningar, xT 0.12ChinenTakuto Kimura: 91 passningar, xT 0.24KimuraToichi Suzuki: 90 passningar, xT 0.45SuzukiRyotaro Tsunoda: 62 passningar, xT 0.18TsunodaTomoki Kondo: 60 passningar, xT 0.75Kondo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    JEF United Chiba
    Takashi Kawano: 140 passningar, xT 0.23KawanoMasaru Hidaka: 131 passningar, xT 0.14HidakaRikuto Ishio: 100 passningar, xT 0.28IshioDaniel Peter Olatunji Hall: 99 passningar, xT -0.01HallMatheus Salgueiro Pains: 92 passningar, xT 0.05PainsTakumi Tsukui: 83 passningar, xT 0.31TsukuiYusuke Kobayashi: 79 passningar, xT 0.25KobayashiDaichi Ishikawa: 77 passningar, xT 0IshikawaJose Aurelio Suarez: 70 passningar, xT 0.17SuarezKen Yamura: 69 passningar, xT 0.03YamuraTaishi Taguchi: 56 passningar, xT 0.13Taguchi
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    Jeison Quinones: 246 passningar, xT 0.27QuinonesKosei Suwama: 229 passningar, xT 0.3SuwamaHiroki Iikura: 156 passningar, xT 0.24IikuraRiku Yamane: 138 passningar, xT 0.18YamaneKosuke Matsumura: 124 passningar, xT 0.28MatsumuraTaisei Inoue: 109 passningar, xT 0.09InoueKei Chinen: 101 passningar, xT 0.12ChinenTakuto Kimura: 91 passningar, xT 0.24KimuraToichi Suzuki: 90 passningar, xT 0.45SuzukiRyotaro Tsunoda: 62 passningar, xT 0.18TsunodaTomoki Kondo: 60 passningar, xT 0.75Kondo

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
    Points515
    xPoints1114.2
    xG per match1.11.3
    xGA per match1.71.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.20.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.370.21
    Playing styleJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
    Build-up efficiency0.330.3
    Field tilt0.330.47
    xT per match0.660.77
    xTA per match1.20.99
    Won balls, offensive half2328
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.26
    Entries into the box per match810
    Entries into the box against1612
    Pass completion %0.70.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.68
    Passes per match307296
    Passes against per match399328
    Switches of play per match14.821.2
    Long balls per match2128
    Set piecesJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
    xG from free kicks0.040.05
    Corners per match3.13.4
    Corners against per match5.65
    xG per corner0.040.04
    xGA per corner against0.050.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.26
    First touch, defensive corners %0.740.64
    OtherJEF United ChibaYokohama F. Marinos
    Throw-in control0.670.62
    The goalkeepersJose Aurelio Suarez (JEF United Chiba)Hiroki Iikura (Yokohama F. Marinos)
    Saves2412
    Save %56%86%
    xG prevented47%76%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    JEF United Chiba
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Yokohama F. Marinos
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos according to our model?

    The model gives Yokohama F. Marinos a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: JEF United Chiba 22%, draw 25%, Yokohama F. Marinos 52%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

    The model expects 1.11 goals (xG) for JEF United Chiba and 1.44 for Yokohama F. Marinos, 2.54 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    JEF United Chiba or draw (1X) 48%, Yokohama F. Marinos or draw (X2) 78% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos
    3–4
    Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers
    1 25%X 30%2 45%
    The model called the outcome
    Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
    4–3
    Urawa RedsUrawa Reds
    1 38%X 26%2 36%
    The model called the outcome
    Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
    0–1
    Shimizu S-PulseShimizu S-Pulse
    1 43%X 27%2 30%
    The model missed the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Hämta bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.

    Se ComeOns villkor

    Hämta bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.

    Se Hajpers villkor

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.