J1 LeagueEdion Peace Wing, Hiroshima20°8 km/h

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    Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce HiroshimaPossession & high press
    3–0
    Kyoto SangaKyoto SangaPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (77%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.35 (+8 %)

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga · J1 League

    1 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 77%X 14%8% Kyoto Sanga · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga (J1 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 77%, draw 14%, Kyoto Sanga win 8%. Expected goals (xG): Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.75, Kyoto Sanga 0.74. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw 92%, Kyoto Sanga or draw 23%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima's current winning streak serves as a testament to their tactical finesse, particularly their potent combination of possession and high pressing. With three consecutive victories under their belt, the home side enters this clash against Kyoto Sanga with visible momentum. The hosts average an impressive 2.6 xG per match while conceding just 0.57 xGA, underscoring their attacking prowess and defensive solidity. Meanwhile, Kyoto Sanga's more possession-focused approach hasn't translated into results, as indicated by their lackluster 1.1 xG and 1.6 xGA per match.

    While the head-to-head record since 2023 shows a narrow edge for Kyoto in six encounters, that small sample holds less weight compared to the current form and projected goal metrics. Sanfrecce's superior point tally and xPoints further reinforce their dominance in this matchup. The model assigns a whopping 77% probability to the hosts, suggesting a comfortable win is on the cards.

    The expected goals tally heavily favors Sanfrecce, pointing toward a likely scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0. With a 68% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals and Sanfrecce's tendency to exploit defensive lapses through relentless pressing, goals could come in abundance. Yet, with Kyoto's limited scoring potential, the "both teams to score" prospect sits at a coin flip.

    For those eyeing betting value, the odds on a Sanfrecce victory offer slight positive expected value (EV+) with bookmakers like LeoVegas at 1.333, as well as Betsafe and Nordicbet at 1.32. Given the model's 77% confidence in a home win, these odds present a mathematically sound opportunity, especially when combined with the robust statistical backing for a dominant Sanfrecce performance.

    Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
    Form WLWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #4
    Key players
    • Shunki HigashiLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.42
    • Shuto NakanoCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.27
    • Hayato ArakiCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
    Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #17xT #12xP/match #13Points #16
    Key players
    • Shinnosuke FukudaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.31
    • Rafael Elias da Silva BatagliaFxG 0.51 · xT 0.08
    • Kodai NagataCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    3 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 77% · Draw 14% · Kyoto Sanga 8%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sanfrecce HiroshimaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,91fair 3,84+2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Kyoto Sanga FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 25,12fair 55,52-55 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga

    Predicted score matrix

    Kyoto Sanga →
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.2%
    0–12.1%
    0–20.8%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–08.2%
    1–16.4%
    1–22.3%
    1–30.6%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–011.5%
    2–18.5%
    2–23.2%
    2–30.8%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–010.6%
    3–17.8%
    3–22.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–014.1%
    4+–110.5%
    4+–23.9%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.3-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-18%
    Expected goals
    2,75–0,74
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    @2.35
    Over 2,568%
    @1.53EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win77%
    • Over 1.5 goals86%

    Combined probability

    71%

    Fair odds

    1.41

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win77%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Akito Suzuki to score44%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Akito Suzuki to score44%
    • João Pedro Mendes Santos to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 3.546% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    • Over 3.546% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
    • Over 4.527% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sanfrecce HiroshimaX2 · Kyoto Sanga
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.34    		4.807.20
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 3%
    1.33    		5.207.50
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.34    		4.807.20
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 6%
    1.37    		5.298.00

    Odds updated 17 Oct, 08:18

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    73 %68 %

    1.34 → 1.37

    X-3 %
    20 %15 %

    5.45 → 5.29

    2+6 %
    15 %10 %

    7.55 → 8.00

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2Draw 1Kyoto Sanga 3
    Goals: 9–5 (⌀ 2,3)

    Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Sanfrecce Hiroshima come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 59% of their home matches all-time (59 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Kyoto Sanga
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima (22–6)
    Kyoto Sanga (11–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Sho Sasaki: 347 passningar, xT 1.19SasakiNaoto Arai: 321 passningar, xT 1.47AraiShuto Nakano: 298 passningar, xT 1.06NakanoShunki Higashi: 287 passningar, xT 1.66HigashiHayato Araki: 284 passningar, xT 0.51ArakiHayao Kawabe: 221 passningar, xT 0.27KawabeYotaro Nakajima: 157 passningar, xT 0.12NakajimaTaishi Matsumoto: 128 passningar, xT 0.47MatsumotoAkito Suzuki: 111 passningar, xT 0.25SuzukiDaiki Suga: 103 passningar, xT 0.35SugaMutsuki Kato: 89 passningar, xT 0.24Kato
    Kyoto Sanga
    Kyo Sato: 159 passningar, xT 0.63SatoYoshinori Suzuki: 148 passningar, xT 0.08SuzukiJoão Pedro Mendes Santos: 128 passningar, xT 0.25SantosKodai Nagata: 113 passningar, xT 0.17NagataShimpei Fukuoka: 106 passningar, xT 0.09FukuokaRyuma Nakano: 101 passningar, xT 0.12NakanoRen Kato: 75 passningar, xT 0.07KatoHisashi Appiah Tawiah: 67 passningar, xT 0.04TawiahRafael Elias da Silva Bataglia: 63 passningar, xT 0.32BatagliaHaruki Arai: 60 passningar, xT 0.44AraiYusuke Ishida: 53 passningar, xT 0.11Ishida
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Sho Sasaki: 347 passningar, xT 1.19SasakiNaoto Arai: 321 passningar, xT 1.47AraiShuto Nakano: 298 passningar, xT 1.06NakanoShunki Higashi: 287 passningar, xT 1.66HigashiHayato Araki: 284 passningar, xT 0.51ArakiHayao Kawabe: 221 passningar, xT 0.27KawabeYotaro Nakajima: 157 passningar, xT 0.12NakajimaTaishi Matsumoto: 128 passningar, xT 0.47MatsumotoAkito Suzuki: 111 passningar, xT 0.25SuzukiDaiki Suga: 103 passningar, xT 0.35SugaMutsuki Kato: 89 passningar, xT 0.24Kato
    Kyoto Sanga
    Kyo Sato: 159 passningar, xT 0.63SatoYoshinori Suzuki: 148 passningar, xT 0.08SuzukiJoão Pedro Mendes Santos: 128 passningar, xT 0.25SantosKodai Nagata: 113 passningar, xT 0.17NagataShimpei Fukuoka: 106 passningar, xT 0.09FukuokaRyuma Nakano: 101 passningar, xT 0.12NakanoRen Kato: 75 passningar, xT 0.07KatoHisashi Appiah Tawiah: 67 passningar, xT 0.04TawiahRafael Elias da Silva Bataglia: 63 passningar, xT 0.32BatagliaHaruki Arai: 60 passningar, xT 0.44AraiYusuke Ishida: 53 passningar, xT 0.11Ishida

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga
    Points208
    xPoints1911.2
    xG per match2.61.1
    xGA per match0.571.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.550.45
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.27
    Playing styleSanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga
    Build-up efficiency0.330.32
    Field tilt0.710.48
    xT per match1.80.95
    xTA per match0.661.2
    Won balls, offensive half2722
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.23
    Entries into the box per match2211
    Entries into the box against916
    Pass completion %0.810.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.790.69
    Passes per match489312
    Passes against per match284362
    Switches of play per match35.818.8
    Long balls per match4322
    Set piecesSanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga
    xG from free kicks0.120.08
    Corners per match73.2
    Corners against per match2.16.5
    xG per corner0.050.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.460.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.580.67
    OtherSanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga
    Throw-in control0.740.72
    The goalkeepersIssei Ouchi (Sanfrecce Hiroshima)Hedhe Halls Rocha da Silva (Kyoto Sanga)
    Saves1521
    Save %79%72%
    xG prevented53%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Kyoto Sanga
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga according to our model?

    The model gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 77%, draw 14%, Kyoto Sanga 8%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga?

    The model expects 2.75 goals (xG) for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.74 for Kyoto Sanga, 3.49 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (1X) 92%, Kyoto Sanga or draw (X2) 23% and no draw (12) 86%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.