01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Gamba Osaka or draw (X2)63%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
J1 LeagueIAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka9°30 km/h
Läs på svenska
Shimizu S-PulseLow block & direct2–2
Gamba OsakaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Gamba Osaka (35%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.44 (+7 %)
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka · J1 League
1 · Shimizu S-Pulse 34%X 31%35% Gamba Osaka · 2
34%
31%
35%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka (J1 League, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Shimizu S-Pulse win 34%, draw 31%, Gamba Osaka win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Shimizu S-Pulse 1.18, Gamba Osaka 1.13. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Shimizu S-Pulse or draw 65%, Gamba Osaka or draw 66%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Shimizu S-Pulse – Gamba Osaka
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Shimizu S-Pulse find themselves on a roll with three consecutive victories, a streak that has injected confidence into their camp. Despite their low defensive profile and direct playing style, this run has seen them capitalizing effectively against their opponents. Meanwhile, Gamba Osaka are grappling with a contrasting narrative, having lost four straight matches. The visitors' balanced and physical approach has not translated into points, and they face the daunting task of reversing their form against an in-form home side.
The model presents an intriguing equilibrium, with win probabilities nearly identical for both teams: Shimizu at 34% and Gamba at 35%. The most likely scorelines reflect a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw leading the expectations at 14%. Both sides project expected goals that hover slightly above one, hinting at a match where chances might be scarce and goals even more so.
In terms of season performance, the hosts have a clear advantage, leading in both actual points (13 to 6) and expected points (13.1 to 8.3). Gamba's defensive frailties, evidenced by their 1.9 xGA per match compared to Shimizu's 1.3, could again be exploited by the home side's direct attacks.
Despite these insights, historical head-to-head data since 2023—albeit a small sample of just two matches—indicates a slight edge for Gamba Osaka, having secured a win and a draw. Still, this pales in comparison to the present form and statistical leanings, which favor a tight, low-scoring affair.
The sharpest angle lies in the under 1.5 goals market. With odds at 3.45 on platforms like Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, there’s a sizeable 12% edge as the model suggests a 32% chance of this outcome. Considering the current form, defensive metrics, and low goal probabilities, betting on a cagey 0-1 or 1-0 finish offers intriguing value.
Shimizu S-PulseForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #11xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Mateus Brunetti ValorLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.30
- Se-Hun OhFxG 0.49 · xT 0.07
- Jelani Reshaun SumiyoshiCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Gamba OsakaForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #20xT #15xP/match #20Points #18
Key players
- Issam JebaliCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.09
- Shinnosuke NakataniCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
- Ryoya YamashitaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.25
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Shimizu S-Pulse 34% · Draw 31% · Gamba Osaka 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Shimizu S-PulseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,22fair 14,51-36 %
MissMatchresultat - Gamba OsakaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,03fair 15,85-43 %
MissMatch prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse – Gamba Osaka
Predicted score matrix
Gamba Osaka →
Shimizu S-Pulse →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.3%
0–110.8%
0–26.3%
0–32.4%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–011.3%
1–113.6%
1–27.5%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–06.9%
2–17.8%
2–24.4%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.7%
3–13.1%
3–21.7%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-111%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,18–1,13
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+8%
Under 2,559%
@1.77EV+4%
Over 2,541%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Gamba Osaka or draw (X2)63%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Issam Jebali to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Issam Jebali to score31%
- Rin Mito to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw31% probability@3.44PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- Under 2.559% probability@1.77LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- Under 1.532% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse | X | 2 · Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | 3.15 | 2.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | EV+ 1% 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | 3.15 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | EV+ 7% 3.44 | 2.62 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 06:17
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Gamba Osaka win since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 3.09 to 2.62 (−15%).
1+21 %
44 %34 %
2.26 → 2.74
X-1 %
33 %23 %
3.47 → 3.44
2-15 %
39 %29 %
3.09 → 2.62
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesShimizu S-Pulse 0Draw 1Gamba Osaka 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Shimizu S-Pulse come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Gamba Osaka have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-Pulse (8–9)
Gamba Osaka (8–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Shimizu S-Pulse | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 6 |
| xPoints | 13.1 | 8.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| Playing style | Shimizu S-Pulse | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 270 | 389 |
| Passes against per match | 407 | 296 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.5 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Shimizu S-Pulse | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| Other | Shimizu S-Pulse | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse) | Jun Ichimori (Gamba Osaka) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 22 |
| Save % | 79% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Kashima Antlers – V-Varen Nagasaki17 October 2026
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga17 October 2026
- Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo17 October 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos17 October 2026
- Mito Hollyhock – Urawa Reds17 October 2026
- Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus17 October 2026
- Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale17 October 2026
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka according to our model?
The model gives Gamba Osaka a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shimizu S-Pulse 34%, draw 31%, Gamba Osaka 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka?
The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.13 for Gamba Osaka, 2.31 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1X) 65%, Gamba Osaka or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.