01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Machida Zelvia to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
J1 LeagueMachida GION Stadium, Machida17°8 km/h
Läs på svenska.svg)
Machida ZelviaBalanced & physical3–0
Avispa FukuokaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Machida Zelvia (63%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.70 (+24 %)
Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka · J1 League
1 · Machida Zelvia 63%X 22%15% Avispa Fukuoka · 2
63%
22%
15%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Machida Zelvia win 63%, draw 22%, Avispa Fukuoka win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Machida Zelvia 2.01, Avispa Fukuoka 0.91. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Machida Zelvia or draw 85%, Avispa Fukuoka or draw 37%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Machida Zelvia have been dominant in their recent encounters with Avispa Fukuoka, remaining unbeaten in all four matches since 2023, though the small sample size tempers the weight of these results. The hosts' consistent ability to find the back of the net in their last nine league outings adds to their robust profile. Meanwhile, Fukuoka's defensive struggles, highlighted by their higher xGA of 1.4 per match, could be their undoing.
The numbers lean firmly towards Machida, with a 63% probability of a home win according to the model. Zelvia not only lead the way in actual points but also hold a slight edge in expected points, indicating a team that has performed reliably both on paper and on the pitch. Their balanced and physical style contrasts with Fukuoka's direct approach, which has yet to yield significant results this season, as evidenced by their meager 7 points.
Expected goals further underscore Zelvia's superiority, with an xG of 2.01 compared to Fukuoka's 0.91. Despite this, the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 56%, suggesting some potential for a higher-scoring affair. Machida's ability to capitalize on their chances could see them secure a 2-0 or 1-0 victory, both deemed equally likely.
From a betting perspective, several opportunities stand out. The model identifies a substantial edge in backing the home win at odds of 1.833 with LeoVegas, presenting a 16% value. For higher risk, the over 3.5 goals market offers a tempting 19% edge at odds of 3.55 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. While the latter presents a more volatile scenario, the potential for a goal-filled match cannot be ignored given the statistical backdrop.
Machida ZelviaForm WWDLW
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #3xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Yuki SomaLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.36
- Yuta NakayamaLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.47
- Daihachi OkamuraCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.05
Avispa FukuokaForm LDLLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #16xP/match #10Points #17
Key players
- Tomoya MikiCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
- Teppei OkaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Yu HashimotoRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Machida Zelvia 63% · Draw 22% · Avispa Fukuoka 15%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Machida ZelviaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,88fair 5,53+24 %
MissMatchresultat - Avispa FukuokaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 20,55fair 27,01-24 %
MissMatch prediction: Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka
Predicted score matrix
Avispa Fukuoka →
Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–14.6%
0–22.2%
0–30.7%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.6%
1–110.1%
1–24.5%
1–31.4%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.9%
2–19.9%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–07.3%
3–16.6%
3–23.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.8%
4+–15.3%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
2,01–0,91
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@1.72
Over 2,556%
@2.19EV+17%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Machida Zelvia to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Koki Ogawa to score40%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Koki Ogawa to score40%
- Tomoya Miki to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.533% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
- Over 3.533% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
- Over 2.556% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Machida Zelvia | X | 2 · Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 1.72 | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 9% 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 1.72 | 3.30 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 13% 1.78 | 3.59 | 5.00 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 08:35
Odds movement
1-4 %
55 %50 %
1.85 → 1.78
X+3 %
30 %25 %
3.49 → 3.59
2+14 %
23 %18 %
4.37 → 5.00
Over 2,5+5 %
47 %42 %
2.09 → 2.19
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMachida Zelvia 1Draw 3Avispa Fukuoka 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Machida Zelvia have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Machida Zelvia
Avispa Fukuoka
Machida Zelvia (22–10)
Avispa Fukuoka (11–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Machida Zelvia
Avispa Fukuoka
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Machida Zelvia
Avispa Fukuoka
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20 | 7 |
| xPoints | 15.2 | 13 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 362 | 243 |
| Passes against per match | 385 | 412 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 16.2 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.23 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.41 |
| Other | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Kosei Tani (Machida Zelvia) | Yuma Obata (Avispa Fukuoka) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 13 |
| Save % | 73% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 85% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Kashima Antlers – V-Varen Nagasaki17 October 2026
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga17 October 2026
- Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo17 October 2026
- JEF United Chiba – Yokohama F. Marinos17 October 2026
- Shimizu S-Pulse – Gamba Osaka17 October 2026
- Mito Hollyhock – Urawa Reds17 October 2026
- Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus17 October 2026
- Cerezo Osaka – Kawasaki Frontale17 October 2026
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka according to our model?
The model gives Machida Zelvia a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Machida Zelvia 63%, draw 22%, Avispa Fukuoka 15%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
The model expects 2.01 goals (xG) for Machida Zelvia and 0.91 for Avispa Fukuoka, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Machida Zelvia or draw (1X) 85%, Avispa Fukuoka or draw (X2) 37% and no draw (12) 78%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.