01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Machida Zelvia to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
J1 LeagueIAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka11°20,2 mm16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Shimizu S-PulseLow block & direct0–5
.svg)
Machida ZelviaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Machida Zelvia (45%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.48 (+14 %)
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia · J1 League
1 · Shimizu S-Pulse 25%X 30%45% Machida Zelvia · 2
25%
30%
45%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–5. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia (J1 League, Wednesday, 21 October 2026): Shimizu S-Pulse win 25%, draw 30%, Machida Zelvia win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Shimizu S-Pulse 1.01, Machida Zelvia 1.50. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Shimizu S-Pulse or draw 55%, Machida Zelvia or draw 75%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 13 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Machida Zelvia's remarkable scoring streak of 10 consecutive league matches demands attention, highlighting their consistent offensive threat. This attacking prowess is mirrored in the model's lean towards Machida, who hold a 45% probability of victory against a Shimizu S-Pulse side that has underperformed both in terms of points and expected points. The visitors' balanced and physical style contrasts sharply with Shimizu's direct approach and shaky defence, setting the stage for an intriguing tactical clash.
The model's expected goals suggest a clear edge for Machida, predicting them to generate 1.50 xG compared to Shimizu's 1.01. This discrepancy is supported by season-long metrics: Machida lead in both xG per match (1.7 vs. 1.2) and xGA per match (1.1 vs. 1.3). Despite these advantages, the most probable scoreline remains a tight 1-1 draw (13%), closely followed by 0-1 (12%) in favour of the visitors. The small two-game head-to-head sample offers little against these broader indicators, with Shimizu yet to secure a win against Machida since 2023.
Weather may suppress scoring further, with 6.6 mm of rain expected during the match. Such conditions are already factored into the model, which places the likelihood of over 2.5 goals at a moderate 46% and a coin-flip chance of both teams finding the net. These figures suggest a cautious approach to betting on high-scoring outcomes.
Machida's consistent scoring form makes them a compelling choice as the model's favourites. The statistical evidence points to their edge across points, xPoints, and expected goals. A 1-1 draw remains the most likely outcome according to the model, with a narrow 0-1 win for the visitors close behind, underlining a cautious but Machida-leaning expectation for this clash.
Shimizu S-PulseForm LWWWD
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #11xP/match #8Points #10
Key players
- Mateus Brunetti ValorLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
- Se-Hun OhFxG 0.44 · xT 0.05
- Kai MatsuzakiCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.18
Machida ZelviaForm WDLWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #6xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Yuki SomaLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.37
- Yuta NakayamaLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.47
- Daihachi OkamuraCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
Final score
0 – 5
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Shimizu S-Pulse 25% · Draw 30% · Machida Zelvia 45%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Shimizu S-PulseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 20,74fair 19,72+5 %
MissMatchresultat - Machida ZelviaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,19fair 9,08+1 %
MissMatch prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse – Machida Zelvia
Predicted score matrix
Machida Zelvia →
Shimizu S-Pulse →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–111.8%
0–29.1%
0–34.6%
0–4+2.4%
1
1–07.8%
1–112.7%
1–29.2%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–04.1%
2–16.2%
2–24.7%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.1%
3–21.6%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.7%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,01–1,50
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.48
Over 2,546%
@2.48EV+14%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Machida Zelvia to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Hokuto Shimoda to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Hokuto Shimoda to score21%
- Yudai Shimamoto to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.546% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Over 2.546% probability@2.48NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- Over 3.525% probability@4.60BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse | X | 2 · Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.04 |
| Betsafe | 4.00 | 3.05 | 1.92 |
| LeoVegas | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| Nordicbet | 4.00 | 3.05 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 4.19 | EV+ 1% 3.36 | 1.99 |
Odds updated 21 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Machida Zelvia win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 2.13 to 1.99 (−7%).
1+24 %
28 %23 %
3.39 → 4.19
X-2 %
31 %26 %
3.44 → 3.36
2-7 %
49 %44 %
2.13 → 1.99
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesShimizu S-Pulse 0Draw 1Machida Zelvia 1
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Machida Zelvia have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Shimizu S-Pulse
Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-Pulse (10–11)
Machida Zelvia (25–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Shimizu S-Pulse
Machida Zelvia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Shimizu S-Pulse
Machida Zelvia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Shimizu S-Pulse | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 23 |
| xPoints | 14.8 | 17.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Shimizu S-Pulse | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 260 | 368 |
| Passes against per match | 408 | 382 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 18 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Shimizu S-Pulse | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| Other | Shimizu S-Pulse | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse) | Kosei Tani (Machida Zelvia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 25 |
| Save % | 77% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe18 October 2026
- Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka18 October 2026
- Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka21 October 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Kashima Antlers21 October 2026
- Yokohama F. Marinos – Tokyo Verdy21 October 2026
- Kawasaki Frontale – Vissel Kobe21 October 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – Sanfrecce Hiroshima21 October 2026
- FC Tokyo – Kashiwa Reysol21 October 2026
- Avispa Fukuoka – Gamba Osaka21 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia according to our model?
The model gives Machida Zelvia a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shimizu S-Pulse 25%, draw 30%, Machida Zelvia 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia?
The model expects 1.01 goals (xG) for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.50 for Machida Zelvia, 2.51 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1X) 55%, Machida Zelvia or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.